- The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2024 has seen escalations, including Russia’s strategic territorial gains in Donetsk and Avdiivka, marking a turning point in the war.
- Changes in military and political leadership in both Ukraine and Russia have shaped strategies, with Ukraine struggling under new leadership and Russia pursuing reforms amidst corruption allegations.
- Significant escalations include Ukraine’s use of ATACMS missiles with U.S. support and the allocation of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, further straining global trust and intensifying the conflict.
The Russia-Ukraine war, which has completed 1,000 days this year, has seen significant developments, ranging from changes in the political leadership of both countries to shifts in global strategies. In 2024, the conflict witnessed new escalations, showing very little compromise and an almost complete absence of any prospects for resolution.
From December 2022 to January 2024, the situation had largely been a stalemate, with neither side able to gain a significant edge. In 2023, Ukraine focused heavily on a counteroffensive, but it never fully materialized due to Russia’s fortified defensive positions and heavy resistance along the frontlines.
In 2024, the war became concentrated in the Donbas region. However, 2024 marked a turning point as the stalemate was broken. Russia managed to secure two significant territories, Avdiivka and Lyman both of which were strategically important. The battle for Avdiivka was particularly critical as it opened the floodgates for further advances in Donetsk. It was also vital because Avdiivka had served as a logistical hub for Ukraine for the region of Donetsk. The fall of Avdiivka also mattered greatly for Ukraine as it was symbolic. Ukraine had been building fortifications in this region since 2014, and its capture was a significant moral victory for Russia on the battlefield.
Russia’s gains in Avdiivka in February 2024 represented a significant moment in the conflict. These developments set a strong precedent for Russia’s campaign throughout the rest of the year, marking a favourable start for its military efforts.
Change in Officials
The year 2024 is also notable for changes in military leadership, not just in Ukraine but also in Russia. This shift began with the replacement of Ukraine’s controversial former Commander-in-Chief, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who now serves as Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom. Zaluzhnyi’s relationship with President Zelenskyy had long been a topic of discussion, as he was not in favour of sending Ukrainian soldiers to defend Bakhmut when it fell in 2023.
Another point of contention between Zaluzhnyi and Zelenskyy was the issue of mobilization. Zaluzhnyi advocated for mobilizing up to 500,000 Ukrainians under the age of 60, a proposal that Zelenskyy did not support. Additionally, Zelenskyy was dissatisfied with the prolonged stalemate in the war and the failure of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in 2023. These factors ultimately led to Zaluzhnyi’s removal from his position, though the decision was not without controversy. Zaluzhnyi was highly respected within both the Ukrainian military and internationally, making his dismissal a challenging task for Zelenskyy. After significant effort, Zelenskyy succeeded in convincing Zaluzhnyi to step down in early 2024.
Zaluzhnyi was succeeded by General Oleksandr Syrskyi. Born in Russia, Syrskyi moved to Ukraine when it became independent and chose to serve in its military. Known as “the butcher” within the army, Syrskyi has a reputation for prioritizing offensive strategies, often with little regard for minimizing casualties. Despite being in command for nearly a year, Ukraine has yet to achieve any significant victories under his leadership. Instead, the country continues to suffer heavy losses on the battlefield, with no substantial progress to show for its efforts.
There were also changes in Ukraine’s foreign ministry, as former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was dismissed from his position and replaced by Andrii Sybiha. This move is considered a routine change, as there were no significant differences between President Zelenskyy and the former minister, Kuleba.
Developments within Russia
Former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who had served since 2012, was relieved of his duties and replaced by a civilian economist, Boris Vlasov. This move is considered one of the most significant changes within the Kremlin. Shoigu, a close ally of President Putin, was dismissed due to Russia’s struggles in the war, particularly its inability to perform effectively in the early stages and the prolonged stalemate that followed. President Putin sought a fresh face in the defence ministry to introduce new ideas and strategies.
Another factor contributing to Shoigu’s dismissal was corruption charges involving his close associate, Ivanov, who was briefly detained on bribery charges. This raised serious questions about the integrity of the Russian Ministry of Defense and prompted the leadership to pursue much-needed reforms.
Kursk Invasion and the Aftermath
Another major attempt by Ukraine was a sabotage attack on Russian territories, which marked a new tactical approach. The Presidency aimed to adopt an “offensive defence” strategy to exert pressure on Russia, forcing it to negotiate on better terms. However, this approach proved to be unwise.
President Zelenskyy’s army was already running short of funds and personnel, yet he opted for an offensive without adequate resources. This decision led to significant setbacks. The campaign, particularly targeting the areas of Bryansk and other nearby regions, resulted in escalated tensions rather than achieving the desired outcome.
The small-scale sabotage attempts escalated into broader conflicts, culminating in what can be termed the “Kursk Invasion.” The idea was to gain leverage in negotiations with Russia, but this was far from pragmatic. When a nation is already facing a shortage of manpower and resources, launching an offensive is neither feasible nor effective. Currently, Ukraine’s overall presence in the contested regions is rapidly diminishing.
Major Escalations in the War
This year, we have witnessed major escalations in the war, particularly due to the permission granted by the United States of America to Ukraine to launch ATACMS missiles into Russian territory. This marks a significant escalation, as it signals the West’s official involvement in the Ukrainian conflict. In response, Russia has stated that it will take rightful revenge and specifically target the American presence in Ukraine. So far, dozens of ATACMS missiles have been launched at Russia, with the majority targeting the western provinces, including Kursk. These whole incidents have only escalated the war.
Green Lighting the Frozen Russian Assets
Another significant development this year related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the United States’ decision to allocate frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. It is important to note that over $50 billion worth of frozen Russian assets are under U.S. control, and the Biden administration has decided to redirect these funds to Ukraine.
In October, Ukraine received its first instalment from these frozen assets, marking a historic event. This move is seen as an escalation, with Russia claiming these are its rightful resources. More critically, this decision could harm the United States’ global standing. It raises concerns among other nations about the potential politicization of their national assets held in the U.S., eroding trust in the U.S. as a safe custodian of international reserves.
Trump Win & the Quest for Peace
The outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war remains uncertain, with no significant peace agreements achieved so far. The only notable peace talks in 2023, organized in Saudi Arabia, lacked Russia’s participation, making them largely unproductive. While Switzerland expressed interest in facilitating peace negotiations, these efforts also failed to materialize.
With Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the dynamics of the conflict are likely to shift. Trump’s administration is expected to take a more transactional approach, potentially urging Ukraine to make compromises to maintain U.S. support. This could result in a reduction or cessation of resource aid to Ukraine, forcing Kyiv to reconsider its strategies. Such a shift might open the door to peace, but the terms of any potential agreement remain unclear.
President Putin’s trust in the West, especially the United States, remains a critical factor. Historical precedents like the Minsk Agreements have fostered deep mistrust, as Russia perceived them as Western tactics to stall and rearm Ukraine. The key question now is whether Trump’s leadership can rebuild that trust and create a framework for peace, or if the conflict will persist with no resolution in sight.
Aayush Pal is a freelance writer on contemporary geopolitical developments. The views expressed in his work are entirely his own.
Shobhil Shrivastava