AUKUS at the Crossroads: The US Review, Allied Resolve, and Indo-Pacific Stakes Samvada World

The U.S. Department of Defence launched a 30-day review of AUKUS’s 1st pillar, which comprises the nuclear submarine deal, on June 11, 2025.
The review has speculated delays, scaling back or reconfiguration of the submarine pathway, and the review’s outcome is expected to come out by mid-July, and this could reshape the strategic pace of AUKUS.
AUKUS works with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ensure that nuclear regulations are strictly followed, and it has ensured that nuclear material will only be used for propulsion, and not for weaponisation.
China’s increasing military activities continue to portray why a pact like AUKUS was necessary in the Indo-Pacific region.

Introduction

AUKUS is a trilateral security partnership among the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, which was announced in 2021. It comprises two pillars- one that focuses on nuclear-powered submarines for Australia, and the other that focuses on advanced technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI), cyber, and underwater capacities. Starting 11 June, the United States’ Pentagon launched a 30-day review of the first pillar of the pact, under the leadership of President Donald Trump. This action has raised concerns about the future of this deal and potential changes in U.S. commitments towards the treaty. At the recent G7 meeting in Alberta, Canada, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, and the Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese, reaffirmed their commitment to AUKUS, signalling that despite the review, AUKUS is moving forward.

Background

AUKUS, a security treaty between the UK, the USA, and Australia, was announced in 2021. The main aim of its formation is to ensure stability in the Indo-Pacific region. This pact is largely seen as a response to counter China’s increasing military and naval presence in the region.

The first pillar under AUKUS aims to develop nuclear-powered submarines for Australia. Under this, Australia is set to buy Virginia-class submarines from the U.S.A. Also, a new SSN-AUKUS class will be developed together with the support of the U.S.A. and the U.K. This is a huge step, as this is the first time the United States is sharing its nuclear tech with a country other than the United Kingdom. ^[1]

The Review by the Pentagon, U.S.A

The U.S. Department of Defence launched a 30-day review of AUKUS’s 1^st pillar, which comprises the nuclear submarine deal, on June 11, 2025. This review is led by American national security policy professional Elbridge Colby, best known for the “America First” strategy. This move, which comes under the Trump administration, raises several concerns regarding the U.S.A.’s commitments to AUKUS. These concerns include questions on the U.S.A.’s shipbuilding capacity, domestic industrial strain, and whether supplying submarines to Australia weakens the U.S.A.’s priorities. On the other side, allies say that the review was expected but also show support for AUKUS’ continuity. The review has speculated delays, scaling back or reconfiguration of the submarine pathway. The review’s outcome is expected to come out by mid-July, and this could reshape the strategic pace of AUKUS. Analysts are sure that whatever the outcome of the review might be, there are high chances of the continuity of the pact. ^[2]

Australia buying Virginia-class submarines from the US and the development of the new SSN-AUKUS class with the support of the USA and UK is a huge step, as this is the first time the US is sharing its nuclear tech with a country other than the United Kingdom.

Global and Domestic Response to the Review

Australia’s Defence Minister has called the review meeting “natural and expected”, given a new administration has taken over in the U.S.A. The Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese, has reiterated Australia’s strong commitment to AUKUS at the recent G7 meeting held in Canada. Moreover, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, also reaffirmed that there was no shift in the UK’s policy towards AUKUS. However, the opposition MPs of Australia have raised concerns over transparency, cost and long-term risks of this new development in AUKUS. Despite the review initiated by the United States of America, the other two countries in the alliance have portrayed confidence about the continuity of AUKUS. ^[3]

Strategic Context

In recent times, China’s naval presence in the Indo-Pacific, specifically in the South China Sea, and close to Australia has grown, which increases the strategic concerns. AUKUS partners are also worried by witnessing China’s increasing deployment of submarines and warships near important sea routes. As we have discussed before, AUKUS is seen as a restraint on China on Beijing’s increasing presence and as a part of a broader containment strategy to limit China’s influence in the region. The recent review called in by the US Department of Defence is being closely watched by regional players like Japan, India and Taiwan. Any sign of flickering of the U.S.A.’s commitment could make China stronger in the region and weaken other regional players. Therefore, this pact is crucial for maintaining a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region. ^[4]

Economic and Public Oversight

The submarine program under AUKUS is expected to cost around A$550 billion, spread over the next three decades. This exorbitant amount makes it one of the largest defence investments that Australia has made till now. Critics argue that the money put into this project may divert the budget from funding essential public services like public health and education. Independent MPs and civil societies have asked for greater transparency and parliamentary scrutiny. Concerns about pertinent issues like budget overruns and the long-term feasibility of this project have been raised. Moreover, the opposition leaders in Australia are pushing the government to release a detailed report on the financial breakdown of the project. However, the government remains strong on its ground, stating that this investment is crucial for development and will create thousands of jobs. They also say it will increase strategic autonomy. ^[5]

The submarine program under AUKUS is expected to cost around A$550 billion, spread over the next three decades, making it one of the largest defence investments that Australia has made till now.

Technical Oversight

AUKUS entails crucial defence-industrial collaboration between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. The UK will build around 12 SSN-AUKUS submarines, leading to the creation of about 30,000 jobs in shipbuilding and engineering. Australia, on the other hand, is growing its Osborne Naval Shipyard in Adelaide to gradually construct its SSNs. The United States of America will first supply Virginia-class submarines to bridge any capability gaps. ^[6]

AUKUS works with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ensure that nuclear regulations are strictly followed. It has been ensured that nuclear material will only be used for propulsion, and not for weaponisation. The AUKUS pact also takes into account the monitoring, safeguarding, and ensuring that all safety standards are followed in line with the non-proliferation norms. AUKUS promises to build long-term defence manufacturing ecosystems in all three partnering countries. ^[7]

Way Forward

The U.S.A. Department of Defence’s review is expected to end by mid-July 2025. Now, there is uncertainty whether this review will lead to minor changes in the AUKUS pact or some significant adjustments will have to be made. The two key stakeholders, Australia and the UK, are watching the developments in the U.S.A. very closely, preparing themselves for any policy changes, if needed. Moreover, an increased domestic scrutiny in Australia may lead to more transparency and fiscal accountability by Australian officials. China’s increasing military activities continue to portray why a pact like AUKUS was necessary in the Indo-Pacific region. The pact’s future depends on how well it maintains its ties with regional stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific, along with building its ambitious project.

References:

Archita Gaur

Archita Gaur is a postgraduate student at the School of International Studies, JNU. She specialises in the World Economy and has a strong interest in public policy, economic research, and governance. The views expressed are the author’s own.

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