Can Europe Sustain the Ukraine War without US Support?

• The major challenge for Europe is replacing the U.S. in Ukraine. This is an extremely difficult task because Europe lacks the military-industrial complex and economic capacity that the U.S. possesses.
• Over time, Europe has become entirely Russophobic. Now that the U.S. is willing to negotiate with Russia, Europe is being left behind.
• Trump wants to resolve the Ukraine war because he wants to focus on domestic issues in the U.S. and address larger geopolitical challenges in the Asia-Pacific.
• One possible solution for Russia is to push for peace but on its terms. That means ensuring that Ukraine is permanently barred from joining NATO.

It’s been three years since the war in Ukraine started, and the United States of America, without a doubt, is the major orchestrator of the war by directly involving itself in the Maidan in 2014 and bringing a pro-Ukrainian regime into power. From there to its support for Ukraine since 2022, the United States of America has spent more than $500 billion in total on Ukraine. However, all of this major support came under the presidency of Joe Biden, who was pro-Ukraine and pro-war.  

But in these three years, a significant change has taken place, not only on the battlegrounds of Ukraine but also a major political shift inside the United States of America. President Trump has been elected, and since his campaigning days, he has been saying that he wants to end the war. He has even gone so far as to say that he will do everything possible to bring the conflict to an end. It’s been just a month since President Trump has taken office, and he has already shown signs of keeping his promises regarding the war.  

Moreover, a significant step was taken when President Trump wanted to sign a mineral deal with Ukraine, a deal that could provide security guarantees to Ukraine. However, there is some doubt regarding this mineral deal. President Trump wanted President Zelensky to come to the White House last week to finalize this deal. Unfortunately, the deal could not be signed. As per this deal, the United States of America would take over Ukraine’s critical mineral resources, like lithium and others, worth $500 billion. These minerals would come under the security guarantees of the United States of America.  

The Trump administration wanted to sign this deal, but eventually, President Zelensky refused to agree. When President Zelensky arrived at the Oval Office, a historic and very rare verbal spat took place. One of the main reasons for this dispute between President Trump and President Zelensky was their differing positions on the peace agreement. The Ukrainian president wanted the American security guarantees to come first before a ceasefire was established. But the Trump administration insisted that the ceasefire should come first, and then the peace agreement could be discussed.  

Because of these differences, there has been a tremendous shift in the relationship between the United States of America and Ukraine. The country that created the Ukraine conflict, the country that supported Ukraine throughout the war, has finally decided to stop all military aid to Ukraine. The United States of America has also stopped sharing intelligence data with Ukraine. Due to this, there is immense pressure on European countries to continue supporting Ukraine.  

However, in reality, the conflict is a European conflict. The United States of America is not a local player in this war; it is separated by oceans from Europe. Since the Ukraine conflict is a European issue, European leaders who support Ukraine have all agreed to keep providing aid, even if the United States of America withdraws its support. This is why the European Peace Conference in London was held last week—to determine the way forward amid the U.S. withdrawal.  

The major deals signed at the European Peace Conference included the following:  

1. UK Prime Minister Starmer agreed to provide €1.6 billion in export finance for air defence missiles to strengthen Ukraine’s defences.  
2. French President Macron proposed a temporary ceasefire for air and sea attacks to facilitate negotiations. However, Ukraine and other European countries rejected this ceasefire proposal.  
3. European leaders agreed that the United States of America and Ukraine must be on the same page because European countries understand that it will be very difficult for them to replace the U.S. as Ukraine’s primary supporter. Therefore, they urged President Zelensky to negotiate peace with the United States of America.  

Can Europe Replace the USA?  

Now, Europe stands at a very critical juncture. Over the years, Europe has become a geopolitical hotspot for the United States of America. European countries have completely followed the American path—whether in foreign policy or economic policies. Europe has relied heavily on U.S. support.  This is why, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, despite European countries sharing a natural land boundary with Russia and having a greater energy dependency on Russia, they completely isolated Russia because the United States of America demanded it.  

Now, the major challenge for Europe is replacing the U.S. in Ukraine. This is an extremely difficult task because Europe lacks the military-industrial complex and economic capacity that the U.S. possesses. Over time, Europe has become entirely Russophobic. Now that the U.S. is willing to negotiate with Russia, Europe is being left behind. This has created a major dilemma for European leaders regarding how to support Ukraine and how to deter Russia. This is why European countries are now discussing the creation of a European common army, similar to NATO. However, replacing NATO and taking responsibility for Ukraine’s security is an unrealistic approach. If Europe wants stability, security cannot come from supporting Ukraine—it must come from negotiating with Russia.  

Whether Europe likes it or not, Russia is a European country. Russia is deeply involved in European affairs. European security can only be ensured if Russia provides security guarantees. Ukraine, by no means, can defeat Russia. More importantly, European countries are not in a position to send their soldiers to Ukraine due to a lack of consensus. Some European countries, like Hungary and Slovakia, have openly stated that if military aid or troop deployments to Ukraine are proposed, they will withdraw support.  

Therefore, the best course for Europe is to start negotiations with Russia and build a common security framework that considers both European and Russian interests. Given that Europe’s economy is struggling, negotiations with Russia would not only provide security but also ensure economic stability, particularly in energy matters.  

After the war began, it was anticipated that Russia’s economy would collapse due to sanctions. However, the Russian economy has grown by 2% since the war started, while European economies, particularly Germany, have suffered the most. Germany, once an economic powerhouse, is now being called the “sick man of Europe.”  

Why Does the USA Want to Talk to Russia?  

President Trump believes that fighting Russia is not in the best interest of the United States. The investment America is making in Ukraine will never be justified because Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition against Russia. Instead of fighting Russia, Trump believes there should be a bilateral diplomatic understanding between the two nations.  

Trump wants to resolve the Ukraine war because he wants to focus on domestic issues in the U.S. and address larger geopolitical challenges in the Asia-Pacific. He believes that Russia is not the biggest threat to the U.S.—China is. The U.S. has been unable to fully counter China because of its involvement in Ukraine. Trump wants to increase American presence in the Indo-Pacific, which can only happen if the U.S. settles with Russia.  

The Key Question: Can Russia trust the US?  

President Putin has previously shown great willingness to negotiate with the U.S.—whether in the early 2000s when he tried to build relations with Bill Clinton, or in 2014 when the Minsk Agreement was supposed to bring peace. However, past agreements were broken by the West.  A major challenge for Russia is trusting the U.S. again. President Trump might be willing to negotiate, but can the U.S. be trusted to keep its word?  

One possible solution for Russia is to push for peace but on its terms. That means ensuring that Ukraine is permanently barred from joining NATO. If Ukraine is never allowed to enter NATO, it could be a basis for a long-term settlement between Russia and the U.S.

References:

• _{https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ukraine-prepare-sign-minerals-deal-tuesday-sources-say-2025-03-04/?utm_source=chatgpt.com}
• _{https://www.csis.org/analysis/breaking-down-us-ukraine-minerals-deal?utm_source=chatgpt.com}
• _{https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/why-europe-is-worried-over-us-russia-talks-on-ukraine-7735744}
• ^{https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/02/europe-needs-make-its-own-plan-peace-ukraine-and-rouse-its-people-threat-russia}

Aayush Pal

Aayush Pal is a freelance writer on contemporary geopolitical developments. The views expressed in his work are entirely his own.