- Though Iran has pledged to stop supplying weapons to Yemen as part of its agreement, ending the dispute would not be simple.
- Riyadh will have to handle the intricate relationship between Iran’s hopes for economic gains from a de-escalation and the tightening of U.S.-led sanctions on Iran.
- China stepped in to mediate at a time when Saudi Arabia was gaining ground in the region’s diplomatic and economic power dynamics.
The recent détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran is probably going to have a big impact on the civil war in Yemen and could speed up negotiations between Riyadh and the Houthi movement for peace, but it also runs the risk of excluding other groups, such as the main separatist faction, women, and western governments. Although direct negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have been ongoing for months, progress towards resolving Yemen’s seemingly unwinnable conflict has been made since China negotiated a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran last month. Since the Houthis seized large portions of Yemen in 2014, Tehran has supported them. Saudi Arabia led a coalition of Arab countries to drive out the rebels in a conflict that the UN has dubbed the worst humanitarian crisis in history.
Since October of last year, Saudi Arabia has been holding secret direct talks with the Houthi movement in Oman, but the main separatist organisation, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), has declared that it will not feel constrained by any agreement if it covers matters relating to the governance, security, or allocation of resources in the country’s south.
The unexpected agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to re-engage diplomatically announced in China has fundamentally shifted the terrain for a prospective peace settlement in Yemen. The Houthi movement has been armed by Iran for many years. Most recently, the movement attacked the oil-rich region of Marib while also waging war to seize control of the entire country of Yemen. Given that the agreement included a specific phrase committing not to meddle in one another’s affairs, it is improbable that Saudi Arabia and Iran would have made a deal unless it was believed that Tehran’s supply of arms to the Houthi movement would cease.
As the movement is adequately armed, that would not mean the end of its ability to fight, but if Iran actually withholds supplies, a negotiated peace is more conceivable. Saudi Arabia is eager to leave a conflict if its borders are secured.
The Houthi movement is requesting that all limitations on the Sana’a airport and Hodeidah port be lifted in exchange for a longer cease-fire in the negotiations, as well as Saudi Arabia paying all state salaries, including those for its armed forces and security agencies. They also demand that Riyadh end its involvement in the conflict, stop funding the much respected Adeni administration, and pay for reconstruction. Even if the Houthi attempts to damage the Saudi oil industry with drones have only been partially successful, Riyadh is uneasy. On Sunday, Saudi Aramco released a record $161 billion (£134 billion) in profits for 2022, up 48% from the previous year.
Restoration of Iran – Saudi Arabia Diplomacy
Although direct negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have been ongoing for months, progress towards resolving Yemen’s seemingly unwinnable conflict has been made since China negotiated a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran last month.
Recent agreements between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis to prolong a cease-fire agreement signed last year through the end of 2023 have given the diplomatic effort to end the conflict fresh life. The peace legally expired in October, though there has been little bloodshed since last year.
Saudi Arabia freed 13 Houthi inmates on Saturday in return for a Saudi prisoner held by the Houthis, according to Houthi authorities, in a sign that the discussions were moving forward. One of the quickly advancing diplomatic trends in West Asia in recent weeks is the possibility of putting an end to the strife in Yemen. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is driving an initiative to end the isolation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after more than ten years of civil conflict, in addition to the restoration of relations between Riyadh and Tehran.
What’s in the deal?
The agreement outlined by Saudi and Yemeni officials would include a system for paying both military personnel and civil servants salaries in Yemen. In addition, Saudi Arabia will further reopen the airport in San’a and ease the embargo on Hodeidah, the authorities stated. The plan would also resume oil exports from areas under government control and incorporate a buffer zone with Houthi-held areas along the 800-mile Yemeni-Saudi border, according to the officials. The authorities stated that although such conversations would take place later, the Saudis would eventually remove all of their troops. If a cease-fire is reached and upheld, the battle will abruptly end after over ten years. Iran has long been charged by Washington and Riyadh with providing weapons to Houthis. Though Iran vehemently denied providing the Houthis with weapons, which would have been against a U.N. arms embargo. Yet Iran pledged to stop supplying weapons to Yemen as part of its agreement to mend relations with Saudi Arabia.
How Saudi Arabia would benefit
The de-escalation of tensions with Iran is a component of Saudi Arabia’s broader foreign policy initiative to assist its Vision 2030 socioeconomic growth goal. An escalation with Iran would endanger the project’s funding, discourage crucial international investment, and kill Saudi hopes of becoming a regional and global centre, particularly for cloud computing, logistics, trade, and industry. The kingdom is investing billions of dollars to carry out the plan. China stepped in to mediate at a time when Saudi Arabia was gaining ground in the region’s diplomatic and economic power dynamics. In order to reclaim regional and global influence, the kingdom is able to push its economic growth goals and intensify its “Saudi first” diplomacy thanks to high oil prices.
Since 2018, the Saudi leadership has attempted to improve the country’s reputation abroad by modernising its system for formulating foreign policy, resolving diplomatic disputes, and enhancing the international perception of Saudi involvement in the Yemen conflict. To close the gap in Saudi Arabia’s defence against Iran and its militias, the United States is taking action.
How Iran would benefit
Iran is under pressure from domestic unrest, punishing international economic sanctions, and diplomatic isolation on the other side of the Gulf. These elements make Iran more dependent on economic assistance from China as well as its wealthy neighbours, particularly Saudi Arabia. This position may appear to be ideal for Riyadh, but it is not since Iran has a history of attacking its neighbours when the stability of the regime is at risk.
Even if the two nations abide by the guidelines they established in Beijing, ending the dispute with Iran would not be simple. Riyadh will have to handle the intricate relationship between Iran’s hopes for economic gains from a de-escalation with Saudi Arabia and the tightening of U.S.-led sanctions on Iran’s participation in international trade. Additionally, it will be necessary to reduce any potential effects of Israel’s covert conflict with Iran, Iran’s rivalry with the United Arab Emirates, and unfavourable activities by the Iranian revolutionary guard and militias with Iranian support around the area. It appears that the regimes in Riyadh and Teheran are both committed to increasing their cooperation.
(The author is a post-graduate student in International Relations at Kalinga University, Raipur. The opinions expressed are the author’s own)
Aayush Pal is a freelance writer on contemporary geopolitical developments. The views expressed in his work are entirely his own.
Balaji Subramanian 
Dhruv Ashok