This issue brief presents a pioneering framework for integrating Geopolitical Risk Indexing (GPR) into India’s national security architecture. Drawing on data science, conflict forecasting models, and global best practices, the brief argues for a phased implementation of predictive systems capable of identifying strategic threats before they escalate.
Case studies such as the Balakot airstrikes and Galwan Valley clash are used to demonstrate how GPR tools can accurately forecast conflict probabilities. The author proposes the establishment of a National Geopolitical Risk Assessment Centre (NGRAC) and outlines how such systems can enhance India’s decision-making in theatres like Kashmir and the Indo-Pacific.
The brief also addresses institutional challenges, ethical considerations, and the path to future AI-driven forecasting systems, offering a comprehensive roadmap for India’s proactive strategic planning. This brief presents a first-of-its-kind framework using predictive models, data science & global best practices. 🧠
🧵 Highlights ⬇️
- Why GPR Matters:
Conflict can often be foreseen. Using AI, satellite feeds, sentiment data & military indicators, GPR models can predict events like cross-border strikes, insurgencies, or regional flashpoints. - Case Studies:
- Balakot Airstrikes
- Galwan Valley Clash
- Kashmir Stability Index
All used as examples where data patterns showed warning signs — a missed opportunity for early response.
- The Proposal:
🇮🇳 Establish a National Geopolitical Risk Assessment Centre (NGRAC) under the National Security Council Secretariat with multi-agency support. Build India’s own forecasting ecosystem. - The Payoff:
- Early threat detection
- Reduced conflict costs
- Smarter, faster strategic responses
- Over 600% estimated ROI from pilot model simulations
- Looking Ahead:
Integration with quantum computing, ethical AI safeguards, and institutional coordination make this a scalable long-term solution for India’s national security doctrine.
We invite you to explore this insightful brief. To access the brief, you can read it as an embedded PDF (laptops/desktops) or download the file as a PDF and read it on your device.
Divyanka Tandon holds an M.Tech in Data Analytics from BITS Pilani. With a strong foundation in technology and data interpretation, her work focuses on geopolitical risk analysis and writing articles that make sense of global and national data, trends, and their underlying causes. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Dhruv Ashok and Viswapramod C 
Dr Nanda Kishor 
Dhruv Ashok
This is a groundbreaking proposal. The idea of using predictive analytics and AI to proactively manage geopolitical threats, rather than just react to them, is a game-changer for India’s national security. Establishing a National Geopolitical Risk Assessment Centre (NGRAC) seems like a crucial step to modernize our defense strategy. The author’s use of past events like the Galwan clash highlights exactly why this is so necessary.
Excellent analysis! The author has provided a clear, actionable framework for integrating technology into national security. The focus on proactive planning and the use of data from various sources (satellite feeds, sentiment data) shows a deep understanding of modern warfare. I particularly appreciate the mention of ethical considerations and the path toward future AI-driven systems. This is the kind of forward-thinking policy discussion we need.
While the concept of a GPR system is fascinating, I’m skeptical about its real-world implementation. Geopolitical events are incredibly complex and often driven by human factors that are difficult to quantify. Can an algorithm truly predict the decisions of state actors? What about the ethical implications and the potential for false positives? The proposal sounds good on paper, but I worry about the practical challenges and over-reliance on a system that might not be as foolproof as it sounds.