Geopolitical Risk Indexing for India’s National Security: A Policy Integration Framework

This issue brief presents a pioneering framework for integrating Geopolitical Risk Indexing (GPR) into India’s national security architecture. Drawing on data science, conflict forecasting models, and global best practices, the brief argues for a phased implementation of predictive systems capable of identifying strategic threats before they escalate.

Case studies such as the Balakot airstrikes and Galwan Valley clash are used to demonstrate how GPR tools can accurately forecast conflict probabilities. The author proposes the establishment of a National Geopolitical Risk Assessment Centre (NGRAC) and outlines how such systems can enhance India’s decision-making in theatres like Kashmir and the Indo-Pacific.

The brief also addresses institutional challenges, ethical considerations, and the path to future AI-driven forecasting systems, offering a comprehensive roadmap for India’s proactive strategic planning. This brief presents a first-of-its-kind framework using predictive models, data science & global best practices. 🧠

🧵 Highlights ⬇️

1. Why GPR Matters:
   Conflict can often be foreseen. Using AI, satellite feeds, sentiment data & military indicators, GPR models can predict events like cross-border strikes, insurgencies, or regional flashpoints.
2. Case Studies:
   • Balakot Airstrikes
   • Galwan Valley Clash
   • Kashmir Stability Index
     All used as examples where data patterns showed warning signs — a missed opportunity for early response.
3. The Proposal:
   🇮🇳 Establish a National Geopolitical Risk Assessment Centre (NGRAC) under the National Security Council Secretariat with multi-agency support. Build India’s own forecasting ecosystem.
4. The Payoff:
   • Early threat detection
   • Reduced conflict costs
   • Smarter, faster strategic responses
   • Over 600% estimated ROI from pilot model simulations
5. Looking Ahead:
   Integration with quantum computing, ethical AI safeguards, and institutional coordination make this a scalable long-term solution for India’s national security doctrine.

We invite you to explore this insightful brief. To access the brief, you can read it as an embedded PDF (laptops/desktops) or download the file as a PDF and read it on your device.

Divyanka Tandon

Divyanka Tandon holds an M.Tech in Data Analytics from BITS Pilani. With a strong foundation in technology and data interpretation, her work focuses on geopolitical risk analysis and writing articles that make sense of global and national data, trends, and their underlying causes. Views expressed are the author’s own.