- While Brazil positions itself to raise the issues of Global South, President Lula has ambitions that can be considered a red flag for passing any resolution when the main summit convenes.
- It is crucial for the chair of a prominent international organization, seen by some as an alternative to the United Nations, to avoid extreme positions.
- The G20, following its progress in Delhi last year, is now facing discontent under a leadership seemingly more focused on personal ambition than recognizing the aspirations of others.
- Though leaders like Lula aspire to lead the global South, it is India that has taken the lead and continues to be a responsible and reliable player in the challenging geopolitical landscape.
Last week, the foreign ministers of the G20 nations met for a discussion which is one of the meetings that will initiate the annual process in Brazil which holds the baton of the G20 passed to it by India last year. However, it is important to realise that while Brazil positions itself to raise the issues of Global South, President Lula has ambitions that can be considered a red flag for passing any resolution when the main summit convenes.
The Israel-Hamas war has taken away the attention from the Ukraine-Russia war and while last year’s resolution made it through despite the pressure from the West, it might not be that simple this time since the charges of supporting genocide have fallen on the same West. It is so dire that even the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in a recent ruling termed whatever Israel is doing as nothing short of a genocide. This was observed after South Africa took the issue of the war to the Hague, making a mark and creating this precarious situation before this G20 foreign ministers meeting. Not only this will cause disruptions but any sort of direct resolution will require a lot of diplomatic experience to handle by Brazil itself. There’s a reason the Europe-centric opinion isn’t taken with the same amount of seriousness as it was before.
Brazil faces a complicated problem. Not only has Lula denounced the Israeli aggression and compared it to what Hitler did to Jews but has publicly called for Israel to be taken to task and end all diplomatic ties with them. Having such an extreme stance while being in charge of the G20 is a complicated task because the world isn’t as comfortable with compromise as it was a few years ago. Some experts also feel that G-20 foreign ministers may be asked not to discuss geopolitical issues at all when they meet in Rio de Janeiro. The rift since recent events alongside the statements made by Lula are dangling like Damocles’s sword over the fate of the meeting. It gets complicated because Lula has taken the reins soon after fighting the closely contested elections with Jair Bolsanro. Even today he is faced with protests from people in his own country due to his recent comments on Israel.
South Africa and Brazil are pushing for a joint communique that explicitly states Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinians. However, the US, Germany, and other Western nations strongly oppose such a resolution. The United States will undergo polls that will ultimately determine the outcome of the Russian-Ukraine war and whether NATO will uphold its commitment to tacitly support Zelensky. Joe Biden himself faces a challenging situation in the country against a revitalized and more popular Donald Trump. Trump is gaining support, particularly due to the perceived “unpopular” immigration policies adopted by the United States. Despite Biden’s attempts to strengthen ties with China and India, the botched retreat from Afghanistan and failure to gauge Russia’s special operation have undermined their global reliability. For the US, having anything like this resolution passed would be undesirable, given their relationship with Israel and conservative stance. Therefore, the US cannot and will not allow it to happen during its hawkish watch at the G20.
In this matter, Europe aligns with the US in certain aspects. While they have condemned Hamas and, as a whole, either remained neutral or urged Israel to avoid harming civilians, specific countries like Spain, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Turkey have expressed opposition to the IDF’s actions under Netanyahu. Some sentiments shared by Lula find acceptance in parts of Europe. Germany remains steadfast in its support for Israel, hosting multiple pro-Jewish rallies. France, though supportive, has criticized the IDF’s actions, and a resurgence of friction between Israel and Gaza wouldn’t be surprising.
In Asia, there’s a collective effort to remind Israel of its responsibilities. Islamic nations, in clear terms, label it as genocide. The Chinese Communist Party and pan-Asian Islamic nations maintain a consistent stance. West Asia displays unity in condemning and intervening to halt violence between Israel and Hamas. In essence, while Europe shows some internal divisions but overall support for Israel, Asia is largely unified against Israel, with around 90 per cent of nations holding this position.
The G20 Delhi resolution of last year faced criticism for the perceived lack of importance and seriousness of the consensus reached during intense negotiations. However, in the current context, sceptics may reconsider their stance as the circumstances have evolved. India played a pivotal role in mitigating disputes among states and rivals, contributing to the successful passage of the resolution. Though leaders like Lula aspire to lead the global South, it is India that has taken the lead and continues to be a responsible and reliable player in the challenging geopolitical landscape.
It is crucial for the chair of a prominent international organization, seen by some as an alternative to the United Nations, to avoid extreme positions. The G20, following its progress in Delhi last year, is now facing discontent under a leadership seemingly more focused on personal ambition than recognizing the aspirations of others. This is particularly significant as 2024, a crucial year with numerous elections worldwide, unfolds. The G20, often considered a divided house, had shown promise but now displays signs of uncertainty. Additionally, the United Nations Refugee Welfare Association (UNRWA) employing aid workers allegedly assisting Hamas against the IDF and holding hostages is a significant concern. This situation contributes to the growing sentiment that the UN might not be an adequate body for fostering consensus among world powers, leading to the announcement of funding cuts by several nations.
In conclusion, the G20, like the United Nations, appears to be a house divided under leadership focused on personal ambitions. While progress was evident in Delhi last year, the current atmosphere suggests dissatisfaction as we enter a pivotal year marked by elections that will shape the course of international relations. Despite these challenges, optimism and faith are essential, even in the face of slow progress and a lack of clarity among nations today.
(Anhad Jakhmola is a postgraduate scholar in international relations. He has his undergraduate degree in history and is pursuing his Ph.D. in Defence and Strategic Studies. He is a columnist for many portals and is a keen public speaker in debates and discussions. Views expressed are author’s own)
Aayush Pal 
Balaji Subramanian 
Palak Dogra