The Kurdish Quandary: Turkey, Syria, and the Battle for Influence

• The goal of the YPG, in collaboration with the PKK, is to establish an autonomous Kurdish region that would span from southeastern Turkey to northeastern Syria.
• Erdoğan understands the geopolitical risks and challenges posed by Turkey’s intervention in northeastern Syria and seeks negotiations with Syria to collaborate in combating Kurdish groups.
• Having the goal of transferring the responsibility of tackling terrorist groups to the Syrian government, Erdoğan wants to reach an agreement with President Assad of Syria to withdraw Turkish forces from the region.

Last week, Türkiye conducted an attack on PKK bases in Northern Iraq. The primary reason for this action was to prevent further escalations by the PKK, which has been causing instability in the southeastern part of Türkiye. In addition to these efforts, Türkiye has been urging the international community to recognize the PKK as a terrorist organization, aiming to facilitate joint operations between Türkiye and Iraq to weaken the PKK. Historically, Iraq has resisted recognizing the PKK as a terrorist group. However, in a significant development, Iraq has now officially designated the PKK as a terrorist organization. This decision marks an important step forward, as it enhances cooperation between Türkiye and Iraq. The improved relationship between the two nations is crucial not only for combating the PKK but also for maintaining stability in the region.

History of Kurds

Kurds faced significant challenges after World War II. Due to their geopolitical position, their population is spread across Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. They have long demanded political recognition and the creation of an independent state. However, many countries in the region reject this demand. One notable Kurdish group is the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), based in Turkey, which seeks political legitimacy and the creation of a Kurdish state within Turkey. As a result, Turkey has labelled the PKK as an international terrorist organization.

The presence of the PKK and the spread of the Kurdish population pose significant security concerns for Turkey. These security issues have intensified, especially after the start of the Syrian Civil War, which began around 2013-2014. The conflict has led to a large number of Syrian immigrants entering neighbouring countries, further complicating the situation.

The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) continues to create internal turmoil in Turkey and has been involved in numerous historical incidents there. The PKK’s primary goal is to establish an independent Kurdish state within Turkey. This is a major reason why Turkey’s President opposes the PKK. Another related group is the People’s Defense Units (YPG), located in northeastern Syria. The YPG shares geographical proximity and close associations with the PKK. The YPG aims to train members of the PKK from northeastern Syria, potentially to support their objectives in Turkey.

The goal of the YPG, in collaboration with the PKK, is to establish an autonomous Kurdish region that would span from southeastern Turkey to northeastern Syria. However, the Iranian and Russian alliance, which supports Syria, strongly opposes the creation of a Kurdish state. They believe that such a state would grant leverage to the United States, which supports the PKK and YPG. The presence of a Kurdish state could potentially increase U.S. influence in the region and exacerbate tensions.

Turkiye military operation on Syria 

Given the complex and contentious relationship between the YPG and the PKK, Turkey made a bold decision in 2019 to launch military operations in northeastern Syria. The objective of this operation was to eliminate the YPG, which would subsequently weaken the PKK by disrupting their training bases and networks, thus reducing PKK terrorist activities inside Turkey.

However, this invasion faced significant opposition from Syria, which is backed by Russia and Iran. Syria viewed the Turkish military operations as a violation of its sovereignty. Even though Turkey targeted the YPG, considered a terrorist organization by Turkey, Syria could not allow another country to infringe upon its territorial integrity. This led to ongoing tensions between Turkey and Syria, with Syria demanding the withdrawal of Turkish forces from its northeast regions. Turkey, on the other hand, insists that it cannot withdraw due to security concerns stemming from these regions.

Syria has already endured a devastating civil war with involvement from numerous international actors. Turkey’s intervention in 2019 further complicated the geopolitical landscape of Syria. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump decided to withdraw U.S. troops from the region, effectively giving Turkey the green light for its military operations. Turkey then launched operations targeting the YPG in northeastern Syria.

While these operations were seen as advantageous by the U.S. in terms of countering ISIS, they worsened the relationship between Syria and Turkey. Syria, already struggling with various factions and foreign interventions, viewed Turkey’s actions as an additional violation of its sovereignty, leading to deteriorating diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Outcomes of Turkiye Military Operation

It is highly debatable and analytically complex to understand the outcome of Turkey’s military operation. On one hand, many believe that Turkey has largely succeeded in deterring terrorist threats from the northeast, with the YPG suffering significant losses and the PKK being weakened. However, scattered attacks continue to occur. Many international experts argue that the geopolitical tensions and Turkey’s involvement in Syria have introduced unnecessary complications. The long-term impact of these operations remains a subject of debate among analysts.

Amid all these developments, another significant aspect is the Iranian and Russian support for Syria, which has been effective in combating ISIS. As a result, ISIS-controlled regions have significantly diminished, and Syrian government forces have gained ground. This is reflected in the increased diplomatic backing for Syria, particularly from Iran and Russia.

With continued support from these allies, the Syrian government has regained strength. This shift has caught the attention of the United States and its allies, who recognize the growing difficulty in influencing the situation in Syria.

Notably, Arab countries have also acknowledged these changes. In a historic move, the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other members, allowed Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad to participate in the GCC summit in 2023. This development suggests that Arab nations now believe that regional stability is essential for the betterment of the Middle East, recognizing that stability in Syria could prevent the conflict from spilling over into neighbouring regions.

Given this context, President Erdoğan has sought to engage in continuous dialogue with Syria. Turkey has requested talks with Syrian counterparts, but Syria has made it clear that any discussions would only occur if Turkey withdraws from the northeastern part of Syria. Although there were reports of a potential meeting in Russia, neither party has agreed to any terms so far.

Why President Erdogan wants to talk to President Assad 

One of the reasons President Erdoğan is pushing for talks is that Turkey currently hosts almost 3.5 million Syrian refugees. Erdoğan recognizes that acknowledging President Assad’s position as the leader of Syria could facilitate the return of these refugees to their homeland, which is in Turkey’s best interest.

Additionally, Erdoğan understands that the geopolitical risks and challenges posed by Turkey’s intervention in northeastern Syria have not yielded significant benefits. He seeks negotiations with Syria to potentially collaborate in combating Kurdish groups like the PKK and the YPG. Such cooperation supported regionally, could make it easier to address these security threats

President Erdoğan wants to reach an agreement with President Assad of Syria to withdraw Turkish forces from the region. The goal is to transfer the responsibility of tackling terrorist groups to the Syrian government. However, this withdrawal and transfer of responsibility can only occur if Syria receives certain benefits from the negotiations. It will be very interesting to see how these talks unfold, as the outcome could significantly impact the region’s stability and security.

References: 

1. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/whats-at-stake-in-turkeys-military-escalation-in-syria
2. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240712-why-is-erdogan-in-a-hurry-to-meet-assad

Aayush Pal