- PM Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Ukraine, a landmark and historic event according to India’s strategic community, has the potential to significantly influence the global order.
- India has the strategic leverage to initiate a series of peace dialogues that would enable the process of de-escalation, disengagement, and deduction of forces for both sides.
- Like most nations of the global south, both Russia and Ukraine recognise the role of India as a significant global power and a reliable country to further their strategic partnerships.
PM Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Ukraine, a landmark and historic event according to India’s strategic community, has the potential to significantly influence the global order. In a world increasingly destabilised, PM Modi’s visits to Ukraine, Poland, and Russia have rekindled hope for peace and stability, potentially de-escalating conflicts. This is a significant development, as the global political commentariat and strategic experts had previously predicted a prolonged stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine war, with intermittent outbreaks of conflict. Such a scenario would have only served to benefit the military-industrial complex, primarily based in the USA.
For those who have been closely monitoring the war in Ukraine, it’s evident that it’s a war of futility, and ending it presents a real challenge. This is a war fueled by national egos, not just of the actual combatants but also of several countries who support it, albeit some reluctantly. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emerged as a key advocate for peace and stability, being the first to underscore that ‘it is not the era of war’ when he conversed with President Putin at the SCO summit in Tashkent in 2023. He has consistently reiterated this stance with his call for peace between the warring nations, a message that has become synonymous with his name and approach.
During his visit to Poland, just before his brief stop in Kyiv, Prime Minister Modi stressed the importance of dialogue and diplomacy in resolving disputes between nations, labelling Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine and the military tension between Iran and Israel in West Asia as a ‘matter of great concern for everyone.’ Does this position India in the League of Nations that actively seeks an early resolution to the Ukraine crisis? In reality, India has maintained a central approach throughout the conflict. Prime Minister Modi made a thought-provoking statement during this high-profile visit, asserting that India is not merely a neutral, uncommitted nation but a nation profoundly concerned and actively working for peace and stability.
Understanding Conflict Resolution Diplomacy
Conflict resolution diplomacy is a nuanced and multifaceted process that seeks to mediate disputes between conflicting parties, aiming for a peaceful and mutually acceptable outcome. It operates on the premise that even the most deeply rooted conflicts can be resolved through dialogue, understanding, and compromise. At its core, conflict resolution diplomacy is an art that balances firmness with flexibility, where the goal is not merely to end the immediate discord but to lay the groundwork for lasting peace and cooperation.
Diplomacy in conflict resolution often begins with identifying the underlying causes of the conflict. These causes vary, ranging from territorial disputes, resource allocation, and ethnic tensions to political power struggles. Understanding these root causes is essential because it allows diplomats to address not just the symptoms of the conflict but the very factors that fuel it. This initial phase of diplomacy requires patience, empathy, and deep cultural awareness, as misunderstandings and grievances often stem from historical wounds and entrenched perceptions.
Once the causes are understood, the next step in conflict resolution diplomacy involves creating a dialogue between the conflicting parties. This dialogue is not just about exchanging views but also about building trust. In many cases, the parties involved in the conflict may have little faith in each other, having been locked in a cycle of hostility and suspicion. Diplomats must work to bridge this trust gap, often by acting as neutral mediators who can facilitate communication in a safe and respectful environment. This stage of diplomacy is delicate, as it requires the careful balancing of interests, ensuring that all parties feel heard and respected.
As dialogue progresses, diplomats often employ various strategies to move towards a resolution. These strategies can include proposing compromises, offering incentives for peace, or even applying pressure through sanctions or the threat of international isolation. The key is to find a solution that all parties can accept, even if it requires them to make concessions. Diplomats must be skilled negotiators capable of persuading each side that peace is desirable and achievable without sacrificing their core interests.
Conflict resolution diplomacy is a continuous process that requires commitment, creativity, and a deep understanding of the human elements at play. It is about more than just ending violence; it is about creating a framework within which peace can flourish.
In the final stages of conflict resolution diplomacy, the focus shifts to formalising the agreements reached and ensuring their implementation. This can involve drafting treaties, establishing monitoring mechanisms, and sometimes deploying peacekeeping forces to maintain stability. However, the end of active negotiations does not signify the end of diplomacy. Sustained efforts are often required to ensure that the peace is durable. This involves continued engagement, monitoring for compliance, and addressing any emerging issues that could reignite the conflict.
Ultimately, conflict resolution diplomacy is a continuous process that requires commitment, creativity, and a deep understanding of the human elements at play. It is about more than just ending violence; it is about creating a framework within which peace can flourish. Diplomacy aims to transform conflicts from destructive confrontations into opportunities for cooperation and mutual growth by fostering dialogue, building trust, and encouraging compromise. In this way, it resolves disputes and contributes to the broader goal of global stability and harmony.
India has the strategic leverage to initiate a series of peace dialogues that would enable the process of de-escalation, disengagement, and deduction of forces for both sides (Russia and Ukraine). This means that, in reality, there can be a practical and viable solution in terms of the initiation of a cease-fire negotiation. There is probably a more significant realisation now that Ukraine might not have regained all of its lost territory in this war. Also, it’s almost certain that Russia might not be able to gain a significant amount of territory by advancing further in the war. In such a situation, it would be wiser for both sides to start a severe de-escalation process through peace negotiations. India is the only international player and a significant global power in a position to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table.
India’s leadership under PM Modi has signalled its intent to be a mediator. However, in the current geopolitical situation, the West and Ukraine are pretty apprehensive about it. However, this region’s dynamics and equations will change depending on the leadership change in the USA and China’s expansive hegemonistic nature. However, at some point in the future, resolving or halting this conflict is only possible through a well-evolved strategy in conflict resolution diplomacy.
The Impact and Dilemma for India
The recent visit of PM Modi to Moscow and his friendly interaction with President Putin has raised concerns among US and Ukrainian leaders. However, Modi’s gesture of touching Ukrainian President Zelinsky’s shoulders should demonstrate India’s mature approach. This moment, captured in photographs, conveys Modi’s wise counsel to Zelinsky. While body language is significant in diplomacy, it’s essential to recognise that effectively countering the war in Ukraine remains a challenge despite substantial aid from the US. Although India maintains a cordial relationship with the US, subtle currents of distrust are present in the relationship. Both cooperation and underlying tensions mark India-U.S. relations.
On the one hand, both nations share strategic interests in areas like defence, counterterrorism, and trade, fostering a robust partnership. However, dilemmas persist, particularly in trade imbalances, where U.S. concerns about market access and intellectual property rights clash with India’s protectionist measures. Additionally, India’s reliance on Russian defence supplies and its stance on human rights and climate change sometimes diverge from U.S. expectations. These differences create friction, challenging the otherwise strong bilateral ties and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to maintain a balanced relationship.
The visit to Ukraine may also have mitigated any negative perception. India maintains strong diplomatic relations with Russia but is also cautious about not distancing itself from Western countries. Though the Ministry of External Affairs, India, had stated clearly that New Delhi had no intention of presenting a peace plan in Kyiv, India is prepared to assist in facilitating the discussion of a peace deal. The discussions also covered defence and economic cooperation, as well as India’s role in the future reconstruction of post-war Ukraine. Analyst Karolina Hird emphasizes that the scale and speed of Western assistance may not be sufficient to turn the tide in favour of Ukrainian forces completely. The situation’s complexities also extend to the potential for ceasefire and peace negotiations. Ukraine needs to understand that Russia is unlikely to retreat, and their suffering in the war has been comparatively lesser.
India maintains strong diplomatic relations with Russia but is also cautious about not distancing itself from Western countries.
Every conflict has to come to an end. Whether it favours a nation or not, or whether it favours its national interests, are questions that will always revolve around the vicious cycles of strategic dilemmas. Countries are bound to make certain compromises with the extent of their territories, which is bound to the geostrategic pressures of the evolving times. Indeed, the big powers and countries with hegemonistic geopolitical ambitions will always have a more significant say in shaping the world order’s nature and trajectory.
However, mini-laterals and regional groupings can undoubtedly pressure the larger nations to act in favour of their interests. The best example of this is how India has organically taken on the role of becoming the leader of the global south. Most nations of the global south have also endorsed the role of India to become its leader. Similarly, both Russia and Ukraine recognise the role of India as a significant global power and a reliable country to further their strategic partnerships. Although it is clear that India is probably the only country that has a cordial relationship with both Russia and Ukraine, the prospects of negotiating a long-lasting peace in this region is still a significant challenge. However, during his visits to Russia, Ukraine, and Poland, PM Modi has demonstrated India’s willingness to make necessary interventions to ensure a stable and peaceful world order.
Viswapramod is a PhD Scholar at the Department of International Studies and Political Science, Christ University, Bangalore. He has an MA in International Relations. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Aayush Pal 
Balaji Subramanian