Bangladesh’s Political Shift: Can It Prosper Without India?

• Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia and for Bangladesh, India is the second biggest trade partner in Asia.
• Patients from Bangladesh come to India mostly for specialised treatments such as cardiology, oncology, Gastroenterology, Rheumatology, Neurology etc.
• In the case of power and energy, which are considered as important to running an economy, Bangladesh relies heavily on India.
• The new government may seek to diversify its relations with other countries, including Pakistan, and its decisions on foreign and economic policy will continue to be influenced by its dependence on India.

Introduction

In the past few months, Bangladesh was in turmoil experiencing widespread protests against the Sheikh Hasina government.  It resulted in the ouster of Sheikh Hasina who fled and came to India on August 5. Now Bangladesh is under an interim government led by the Chief Advisor of Bangladesh Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate. Recently a large number of violent activities against minorities, especially Hindus, in Bangladesh were reported. Their temples and shops were targeted. With this, anti-India rhetoric is also surging in Bangladesh.

Recent Developments

Recent developments in Bangladesh are very concerning for India. Due to the close connection of Sheikh Hasina with India and protests against her, anti-India sentiments get a boost in Bangladesh. Last month Bangladesh experienced a downpour of heavy rainfall. In India, parts of northeastern states were also affected. Out of 64 districts of Bangladesh, 11 were affected, approximately 190000 people were taken to emergency shelters and more than one million of the country were cut off from the rest of the country by flooding.1 However, due to growing anti-India sentiments, a rumour was spread that flooding in Bangladesh was caused by opening the gates of the Dumboor Dam situated in Tripura. It was believed that India was taking revenge on the innocent people of Bangladesh for removing Ms Hasina’s government. Whereas, the actual reason for flooding was nature’s action.

It was also observed that people in Bangladesh are showing affection towards Pakistan. A video of a professor at Dhaka University went viral in which he advocated a nuclear treaty with Pakistan to deter India. He stated, “They (Pakistan) will do anything to protect us (Bangladesh) from Indians.”² People listening to him were cheering and clapping for these statements.

Another interesting news came from Dhaka, the National Press Club of Dhaka commemorated the 76th death anniversary of the founder of Pakistan, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, and Urdu poems were recited at the event.³ This was the first time when such an event was organised in Dhaka. Ironically, this event is organised in a country where people died to safeguard their Bangla language against the forceful use of Urdu and lakhs of people died to carve out Bangladesh from Jinnah’s Pakistan.  In this event, Kamran Dhangal, Deputy High Commissioner to Bangladesh was there to represent Pakistan which shows people in Bangladesh are leaning towards Islamabad, forgetting the 1971 genocide.

Dhaka’s reliance on New Delhi

Here comes a question that the People of Bangladesh need to ask themselves. can they prosper without India? Let’s dig it and try to find out the answer. To understand we can analyse it through some important factors like the geography,  Resources, and healthcare system in the state and how much Bangladesh is dependent on India based on these factors.

Geography

Bangladesh is landlocked on its three sides and shares a long border of  4096 km with India. Dhaka has no direct connectivity with Nepal and Bhutan. Nevertheless, in the fiscal year 2022-23, the total trade volume between Bangladesh and Nepal was around $49 million where the balance of trade was hugely in favour of Dhaka.⁴ For the Bangladesh-Bhutan trade, it is around Nu. 5.8 billion (approx. $69 million).⁵ This is possible because India provides transit facilities for Bangladesh to trade with Nepal and Bhutan. With this, Dhaka is also eyeing eastern ports of India such as Kolkata, Vishakhapatnam, and Chennai to export their goods to third countries.

Resources

According to the Ministry of External Affairs, Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia and for Bangladesh, India is the second biggest trade partner in Asia. In the financial year  2022-23, their total trade volume was around $16 billion.⁶ India exports Bangladesh different essential items such as wheat, rice, ginger, garlic, onion, sugar, cotton, coffee, cement, refined petroleum etc.⁷ In the case of power and energy, which are considered as important to running an economy, Bangladesh relies heavily on India.

India exports Bangladesh different essential items such as wheat, rice, ginger, garlic, onion, sugar, cotton, coffee, cement, refined petroleum etc.

In March 2023, the Prime Ministers of both countries inaugurated the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline to transport high-speed diesel from India to Bangladesh. Bangladesh also imports power which dominates Dhaka’s imports from India. To export electricity, India has established a dedicated power plant in Jharkhand. Adani’s 1600 MW Godda Thermal Power Station in Jharkhand exports power solely to Bangladesh. The textile industry of Bangladesh is very important for its economy. It contributes more than 13% of their GDP and more than 86% of export earnings come from textile and textile-related products.⁸ For this sector also, Bangladesh is highly dependent on India to import raw materials. According to an online news article in the Bangladeshi newspaper, The Daily Star, the cotton import bill occupies the third highest place in imports from India.

Healthcare System

A good healthcare system directly benefits the economy of a state. An affordable, accessible and quality healthcare system promotes a healthy workforce and less absenteeism which leads to higher productivity. The Bangladeshi healthcare system is improving but it is also facing various challenges such as infrastructure and resource constraints, quality concerns, limited access to specialised care, waiting time and overcrowding. That is why, many patients are going out of Bangladesh for treatment.

The footfall of Bangladeshi Health tourists is rapidly increasing every year. In 2022, India issued 304067 medical visas for the citizens of Bangladesh, whereas, in 2023 it jumped by 47.9% and reached 449570.

For health tourism, in South Asia India is the most attractive destination. Because of its geographical proximity, cultural affinity, comparatively more availability of doctors, affordable cost compared to Western countries and availability of specialised care etc, Bangladeshi patients are opting for India as a favourable destination. According to Medi Journey, health tourists from Bangladesh come to India mostly for specialised treatments such as cardiology, oncology, gastroenterology, rheumatology, and neurology. The footfall of Bangladeshi Health tourists is rapidly increasing year by year. In the year 2022, India issued 304067 medical visas for the citizens of Bangladesh, whereas, in the year 2023 it jumped by 47.9% and reached 449570. ⁹

Conclusion

After Bangladesh’s liberation in 1971, this was not the first time she faced political turmoil. It faced multiple successful and unsuccessful military coups and political unrest. This time in 2024, closer relations with Pakistan and disaffection towards and rhetoric against India are visible very much. Despite that, the scenario of leaving India and opting for any third country seems far from logical. Looking at the close and important relationship that they share, it is very crucial for the economic growth and stability of Bangladesh. However, the new government may seek to diversify its relations with other countries, including Pakistan, Its decisions on foreign and economic policy will continue to be influenced by its dependence on India.

References

1. _{Shamim, S. (2024, August 28). Hasina, floods, visas: What’s troubling India-Bangladesh relations? Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/28/hasina-floods-visas-whats-troubling-india-bangladesh-relations}
2. _{Opinida Staff. (2024, September 15). “We will have to develop a Nuclear Treaty with Pakistan, Ghauri missiles can be deployed on broder”: Dhaka University professor calls for nuclearisation of Bangladesh ‘to deter India’ OpIndia. https://www.opindia.com/2024/09/dhaka-university-professor-alls-for-pakistan-bangladesh-nuclear-treaty-to-deter-india/}
3. _{India Today. (2024, September 15). Post-Hasina Bangladesh gravitates towards Urdu and Jinnah. India Today. https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/post-hasina-bangladesh-news-muhammad-ali-jinnah-death-anniversary-urdu-song-poetry-dhaka-protests-1971-war-2599773-2024-09-15}
4. _{Embassy of People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Kathmandu, Nepal. (n.d.). Retrieved September 29, 2024, from https://kathmandu.mofa.gov.bd/en/site/page/BD-NP-Trade_General-Information#:~:text=Trade%20Volume%3A&text=In%20the%20fiscal%20year%202022,Nepal%20accounting%20for%20%244.34%20million.}
5. _{PRESS RELEASE by Department of Trade, Royal Government of Bhutan. (2024). https://www.moice.gov.bt/?p=267952}  
6. _{India-Bangladesh bilateral Relations. (n.d.). In Ministry of External Affairs. Ministry of External Affairs. Retrieved September 29, 2024, from https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Bilateral-Brief-Bangladesh-February-2024.pdf}
7. _{TRADING ECONOMICS. (n.d.). Bangladesh Imports from India – 2024 Data  2025 Forecast 1989-015 Historical. https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/imports/india}
8. _{BTMA. (2024, September 23). Home – Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA). Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) – Leads the Nation for a Better Future. https://btmadhaka.com/}
9. _{Magazine, A. M. T. (n.d.). 48% increase in medical tourists to India from Bangladesh in 2023. https://asianmeditour.com/articles/details/48-increase-in-medical-tourists-to-India-from-Bangladesh-in-2023-1648#:~:text=India%20saw%20a%2048%25%20rise,up%20from%20304%2C067%20in%202022.}

_{(Ashish Keserwani is a research scholar pursuing a PhD from Amity University Noida)}

Ashish Keserwani