- The death of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has created a leadership vacuum within the group and may trigger more violence across the Middle East, especially from the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance, including Hamas and the Houthis.
- Nasrallah’s assassination could weaken Hezbollah’s influence, and Israel might use this opportunity to push Hezbollah forces away from its northern border, possibly opening doors for diplomatic negotiations.
- For India, stability in the Middle East is crucial, given its reliance on the region for remittances, oil imports, and investments, with Nasrallah’s death potentially straining India’s delicate diplomatic relations with both Israel and Iran.
Introduction:
The tensions in West Asia escalated after the sudden death of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, marking a significant blow to the Iran-backed terror group and the broader ‘Axis of Resistance,’ which includes Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Initially, Israel announced Nasrallah’s assassination with a statement, “Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorize the world,” followed by Hezbollah confirming his death hours later, referring to him as a “martyr.”
Impact of Nasrallah’s Death on Hezbollah and the Axis of Resistance
Nasrallah’s unexpected death has created a substantial leadership void within Hezbollah, which has been a dominant force in Lebanon for nearly 30 years under his command. Nasrallah transformed Hezbollah into both a political and militant power, making it a formidable adversary to neighbouring Israel.
On October 7, 2023, the day Hamas militants launched a deadly attack on Israel, Hezbollah stated that it was in “direct contact with the leadership” of Hamas. Since then, Hezbollah militants have fired over 8,000 rockets at northern Israel and the Golan Heights. In response, Israel has carried out airstrikes, tank fire, and artillery attacks on Hezbollah targets, with the fighting killing at least 589 people, including civilians, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. Israeli authorities report at least 25 civilians and 21 soldiers dead. Nasrallah’s death may fuel further violence, potentially strengthening the Axis of Resistance comprising Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
The History of the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict
The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel spans decades, with several cross-border skirmishes like the 1993 Seven-Day War and the 1996 April Aggression. However, the most violent episode occurred during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, which began when Hezbollah fighters kidnapped two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid. Hezbollah justified the attack as a strategic move to secure the release of prisoners.
Israel retaliated swiftly with airstrikes, naval blockades, and a ground invasion into southern Lebanon. Over 33 days, more than 200 Lebanese people, mostly civilians, were killed, while Israel lost 165 individuals, primarily military personnel. The conflict displaced thousands on both sides.
Impact of Nasrallah’s Death on the Middle East
Experts suggest that Nasrallah’s death and the “unexpected weakening of Hezbollah” have exposed Iran and its proxies as “paper tigers.” This shift may lead Arab leaders to feel less intimidated by Iran, prompting them to reconsider their strategic options.
Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House indicated that Iran may seek to “turn the tables and save face” as its proxies have not been able to effectively deter Israel or secure a ceasefire in Gaza.
Meanwhile, Orna Mizrahi, an Israeli security expert at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, noted that Israel’s success in weakening Hezbollah’s leadership could pave the way for negotiating a lasting agreement, potentially pushing Hezbollah forces back from Lebanon’s border with northern Israel.
Impact of Nasrallah’s Death on India
The stability of the Middle East is crucial for India, as approximately nine million Indian citizens live and work in the region, sending remittances of about $125 billion annually. In 2024, India imported crude oil and natural gas worth $124 billion, with over 51% of the supply coming from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
Over the five years leading to 2023, Middle Eastern nations invested nearly $40 billion in private deals with India, excluding billions more pledged by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Any disruption in this supply chain could lead to a surge in oil prices and halt investment, seriously impacting India’s economy. Furthermore, a full-scale conflict between Israel and Iran could force millions of Indian expatriates to return, straining India’s economic stability.
The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by Israeli forces in Beirut could test India’s diplomatic balancing act in the region. India maintains strong ties with Israel and has good relations with Iran, with whom New Delhi has a 10-year contract for the Chabahar Port. Thus, India’s interests are high, and the country will need to engage in careful diplomacy to navigate its ties with both nations.
(Palak Dogra, a journalist and Delhi University graduate is committed to shedding light on critical international and national developments, aiming to engage the public on issues that truly matter.)
Palak Dogra, a journalist and Delhi University graduate is committed to shedding light on critical international and national developments, aiming to engage the public on issues that truly matter.
Aayush Pal 
Sindhuri Sai