- The interim government led by Mohammad Yunus in Dhaka signals shifts in Bangladesh’s foreign policy as the relationship between the neighbours undergoes recalibration.
- India’s strategy must go beyond its ties with individual leaders and focus on building broader, institutional relationships.
- The United States has an interest in Bangladesh for strategic value to this Indo-Pacific region.
- Revitalizing SAARC may currently be a symbolic gesture, but it positions Bangladesh to explore alternative avenues in regional diplomacy.
The first high-level talks between India and Bangladesh following the coup that ousted Sheikh Hasina were held last week, marking a pivotal moment in South Asian geopolitics. The interim government, led by Mohammad Yunus, signals potential shifts in Bangladesh’s foreign policy as the bilateral relationship undergoes recalibration. This includes calls to revive SAARC and Dhaka’s assertion of sovereignty on domestic issues. These developments require India to carefully navigate the changing dynamics in the region, especially with external powers like China, Pakistan, and the United States becoming more prominent in Dhaka’s orbit.
This article explores the key takeaways from the talks, their implications for India’s regional strategy, and the larger geopolitical landscape, especially concerning Pakistan and the United States.
Reviving SAARC: A Benign Rapprochement with Pakistan
One major takeaway from Dhaka’s recent stance is its call for India to participate in reviving SAARC. This move is both strategic and symbolic. For years, India’s focus has remained on the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), sidelining SAARC to avoid engaging Pakistan in regional cooperation. Dhaka’s call to breathe new life into SAARC signals a shift in Bangladesh’s regional priorities and a willingness to challenge India’s dominance in the current regional framework.
For Bangladesh, this push for SAARC revival reflects its desire for greater strategic autonomy. The interim government is keen to diversify its foreign policy and reduce its dependency on India. By emphasizing SAARC, Dhaka reminds New Delhi that it has alternative options, even if this move is largely symbolic for now. However, it raises questions about whether Bangladesh might drift closer to Pakistan, as Islamabad has historically sought to align Dhaka with its regional ambitions.
While revitalizing SAARC provides Bangladesh with diplomatic leverage, fostering BIMSTEC as a benefits-driven platform could serve as a balanced alternative. It would allow Dhaka to engage constructively with its immediate neighbours, including India while maintaining its flexibility in foreign policy and addressing its broader regional concerns.
Bangladesh’s Sovereignty and Minority Issues
One of the critical outcomes of the negotiations was the interim government’s assertion that attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh are “purely internal affairs.” Dhaka has called on other nations to refrain from commenting on these incidents, signalling a departure from the cooperative tone under Sheikh Hasina. This reflects an increasingly assertive stance, emphasizing sovereignty and independence in handling domestic issues.
For India, the treatment of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh remains a sensitive issue due to historical and cultural ties. Such incidents often fuel domestic political debates in India, making it a contentious subject. However, Dhaka’s sharp rebuke signals that the caretaker government is prepared to draw clear boundaries in its dealings with New Delhi.
India must approach this challenge with caution. Publicly criticizing Dhaka on minority issues risks alienating the interim government and could be counterproductive. Instead, quiet diplomacy, coupled with confidence-building measures, offers a constructive path forward. This approach allows India to address concerns while respecting Bangladesh’s sensitivities.
The Shadow of Sheikh Hasina: A Double-Edged Sword
Sheikh Hasina’s leadership has been pivotal in shaping India-Bangladesh relations, from the Land Boundary Agreement to enhanced counter-terrorism cooperation. However, her close alignment with New Delhi has also drawn criticism within Bangladesh. The interim government’s criticisms of Hasina reflect a desire to distance itself from being perceived as overly influenced by India.
This presents a significant challenge for India, which must recalibrate its relationship with Dhaka in a post-Hasina era. Moving forward, India’s strategy must focus on institutional relationships rather than individual leaders. Strengthening economic and cultural ties will ensure continuity and resilience in bilateral relations, regardless of political transitions in Bangladesh.
The Geopolitical Chessboard: Bangladesh’s Strategic Importance
Bangladesh occupies a critical position in South Asia and the Bay of Bengal region. For India, maintaining strong ties with Dhaka is essential to counter the growing influence of external powers such as China, Pakistan, and the United States.
Growing Chinese Influence
China has significantly deepened its presence in Bangladesh over the past decade, primarily through infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing’s growing economic ties with Dhaka directly challenge India’s traditional influence in Bangladesh.
India must respond by accelerating its connectivity and development projects, such as those under the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) framework. This would not only strengthen India-Bangladesh trade relations but also reinforce New Delhi’s position as a reliable partner.
Pakistan’s New Outreach
Pakistan’s call to revive SAARC reflects its strategy to undermine India’s regional influence by engaging Bangladesh. While Pakistan’s economic capacity pales in comparison to India or China, its historical ties with Bangladesh allow it to operate diplomatically.
India must counter this by emphasizing the tangible benefits of its partnership with Dhaka, including trade, investment, and security cooperation. Demonstrating the advantages of aligning with India will send a clear message to Pakistan about the strength of India-Bangladesh ties.
The United States and the Indo-Pacific
The United States views Bangladesh as strategically important in the Indo-Pacific region. As Washington counters China’s growing influence, its engagement with Dhaka aligns with India’s strategic interests but also introduces new dynamics.
India must collaborate with the U.S. on shared goals such as maritime security and economic development, ensuring that their respective engagements with Bangladesh complement rather than undermine each other.
India’s Strategic Imperatives
The evolving India-Bangladesh relationship necessitates a recalibrated approach from New Delhi. Key priorities include:
- Widening Participation:
India must reduce its reliance on specific leaders like Sheikh Hasina and establish institutional relationships that withstand political changes in Dhaka. - Economic Integration:
Strengthening trade, connectivity, and energy partnerships will foster mutual growth. The BBIN corridor initiative offers a practical framework for deepening economic ties. - Countering External Influence:
India should intensify efforts to counter China’s growing presence by offering competitive infrastructure projects and enhancing cultural diplomacy. Engagement with the U.S. and Pakistan must also be strategic and focused on long-term benefits. - Quiet Diplomacy on Sensitive Issues:
Sensitive topics, such as minority rights, should be addressed through discreet and constructive diplomacy to avoid alienating Dhaka. - Balancing SAARC and BIMSTEC:
While BIMSTEC remains India’s priority, selective engagement with SAARC can help address the aspirations of smaller neighbours like Bangladesh.
Conclusion
The post-Hasina era marks a turning point in India-Bangladesh relations. Dhaka’s push for SAARC revival, its assertiveness on domestic issues, and its engagement with external powers reflect a more independent foreign policy stance. India must respond with strategic recalibration, focusing on deepening economic ties, fostering institutional relationships, and countering external influences.
Bangladesh remains a vital player in India’s regional strategy, and navigating this complex relationship will require prudence, flexibility, and a forward-looking approach. By balancing its strategic ambitions with the aspirations of its partners, India can ensure a stable and mutually beneficial partnership with Dhaka while countering the influence of China, Pakistan, and the United States.
References:
- The Hindu: Coverage of India-Bangladesh relations and political developments post-Hasina. (The Hindu)
- The Diplomat: Articles discussing the challenges and opportunities of reviving SAARC in the current geopolitical climate. (The Diplomat)
- Global Times: Reports on China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Bangladesh and its implications for regional geopolitics. (Global Times)
- Observer Research Foundation (ORF): Analyses of China’s economic and strategic investments in South Asia. (ORF)
- Foreign Policy: Articles on the U.S.’s growing interest in South Asia as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy. (Foreign Policy)
- Brookings Institution: Reports on U.S. foreign policy in Bangladesh and the region. (Brookings)
- The Economic Times: Analysis of India’s diplomatic strategies in Bangladesh and the BBIN corridor. (The Economic Times)
Saisha is pursuing a Bachelor of Diplomacy and Foreign Policy at the JISA, O.P. Jindal Global University. Her areas of interest include economics, business, diaspora studies, and diplomacy. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Dr. Niranjan B Poojar 
Aayush Pal 
Shobhil Shrivastava