Justin Trudeau’s resignation may reshape India-Canada relations, depending on his successor’s approach to diplomatic and economic tensions, particularly regarding the Khalistan issue.
Trudeau’s immigration policies and diplomatic handling have drawn criticism, highlighting the need for leadership that can address both domestic and bilateral concerns effectively.
Future relations hinge on Canada’s political shift, with a potential Conservative government possibly focusing on strategic and business cooperation with India.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing his resignation raises critical questions regarding the future of India-Canada relations. What are the implications of such a resignation, bearing in mind the current political structure, economic integration, and diplomatic relations between the two countries?
Contemporary Diplomatic Relations
Tensions in bilateral relations rose when the Trudeau administration accused Indian agents of involvement in Nijjar’s death—allegations dismissed by the Indian government as baseless and politically motivated. This accusation caused a diplomatic crisis, resulting in the expulsion of diplomats from both countries and severely damaging mutual trust.
Effects of the Khalistan Movement
Khalistani separatism has become a sensitive issue defining India-Canada relations. The movement aims to create a Sikh state called Khalistan, mainly in Punjab, India. India accuses Canada of harboring extremists threatening its sovereignty, while Canada struggles with domestic political realities where Sikh community support is crucial. Nijjar’s assassination has further strained ties, putting bilateral relations, trade, and people-to-people exchanges at risk.
Economic Relations and Trade Trends
By March 31, 2024, trade between India and Canada reached CAD 8.4 billion during Trudeau’s tenure. However, ongoing crises threaten these economic ties. Trudeau’s resignation’s impact depends on his successor’s stance. A new Liberal leader may follow similar policies, prolonging conflicts with India. Conversely, a Conservative government under Pierre Poilievre could seek improved economic cooperation, though his withdrawal from an Indo-Canadian Diwali event raises doubts about his intentions.
Policies on Immigration and Their Consequences
Trudeau’s stricter immigration policies have affected Indian students aspiring to study in Canada. A decline in international student permits has drawn criticism, particularly within the Indian diaspora in Canada. Changes in leadership could potentially bring reforms, benefiting Indian students and professionals seeking opportunities in Canada.
Possibilities for Developing Relations
India-Canada relations depend on political changes following Trudeau’s resignation. If another Liberal leader with similar policies assumes power, tensions could persist. However, a Conservative government might prioritize shared strategic and business interests. Internal discord within Trudeau’s party adds complexity, potentially creating a leadership vacuum during a critical period.
Justin Trudeau’s resignation is a pivotal moment for India-Canada relations. The future depends on Canada’s political direction and the new leadership’s approach. Diplomatic and economic tensions must be managed carefully to avoid further straining the relationship between these two democratic nations.
References:
Canada PM Trudeau is likely to announce resignation, source says-https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-pm-trudeau-announce-resignation-early-monday-globe-mail-reports-2025-01-06
What happens to Jagmeet Singh if Trudeau resigns?https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/diaspora/what-happens-to-jagmeet-singh-if-trudeau-resigns
After a Surprise Resignation, What Comes Next for Canada? https://www.csis.org/analysis/after-surprise-resignation-what-comes-next-canada
Canada PM Justin Trudeau likely to announce resignation: report-https://ddnews.gov.in/en/canada-pm-justin-trudeau-likely-to-announce-resignation-report/
Parag is pursuing his master’s at the Jindal School of International Affairs. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Satish Chogule 
Aayush Pal 
Megha Joshy Mathew