- If India has to play three-dimensional chess in international relations with Trump, it must support and ensure that its economic growth is driven by innovation that safeguards the national interests.
- For India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has emerged as one of the central figures in international politics dealing with Donald Trump may not be as easy as it seems.
- Under a second Trump presidency, India-U.S. ties would likely focus on strategic and defence cooperation, shared economic interests, and countering China’s influence.
Donald Trump is a man on a mission to accomplish what he says: to ‘Make America Great Again’! His inaugural address was a State of the Union speech which presidents in the United States give each year and he has set the tone for his national and international agenda. For Trump, these next four years will define his legacy and he will go to great lengths to prove that he is not a political anomaly but the real deal.
As he took his oath of office and gave his speech surrounded by his large family, friends, and supporters one could hear the pillars of the establishment fall as he proclaimed a new American “Golden Age”. It seems after surviving two assassination attempts, Trump feels he is invincible and in his usual flare, he has set alight issues that have already created fissures both domestic and international.
Trump and the Three-Dimensional Chess
World leaders will now have to play “three-dimensional chess” with him. Three-dimensional chess is often described as a complex, strategic decision-making that occurs on multiple levels simultaneously. In international relations, this metaphor applies well to the intricate and multifaceted dynamics between nations, where leaders must balance domestic politics, bilateral relationships, and global geopolitics.
Leaders often act in international affairs with an eye on domestic audiences. Decisions in foreign policy can bolster their image at home or serve to distract from internal issues. With Trump, the idea is to understand the method to his madness and now countries who formally depend upon the US for its security must engage in strategic partnerships, trade negotiations, and alliances. He has already thrown the gauntlet by withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and WHO.
In each declaration he has made, for example, Trump often viewed multilateral institutions and alliances like the BRICS with suspicion, believing they diluted U.S. influence or were unfairly structured and he is not wrong. The BRICS is designed and calculated based on the benefits it brings while mitigating risks. However, on the global stage, nations particularly Western Europe must renavigate their relationship and power structure dynamics with Trump.
India and Trump 2.0
For India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has emerged as one of the central figures in international politics dealing with Donald Trump may not be as easy as it seems. Just as Modi has given impetus to Make in India, Trump is focused on “America First,” appealing to his voter base by renegotiating trade deals and addressing job losses attributed to globalization.
Whatever bilateral relations Modi cultivated with Trump is now probably dialled back to zero and the close personal rapport, highlighted by events like the “Howdy Modi” rally in Texas (2019) and “Namaste Trump” in Ahmedabad (2020) would need reigniting. But luckily both leaders share a similar concern over China’s growing influence, leading to enhanced cooperation in defence and trade, such as the Quad alliance (India, U.S., Japan, and Australia).
Also, Trump will push India on arms sales and military agreements like the BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement) signed during Trump’s first term and the Quad Strengthening: Trump saw the Quad (India, U.S., Japan, and Australia) as a critical alliance to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, and this focus would likely have persisted.
Other areas Trump will push India could be revisiting trade relations and how to reduce trade deficits with key partners. India’s trade surplus with the U.S. could have led to pressure for more reciprocal market access. Trump’s preference for tariffs as leverage might have caused occasional friction, as seen during his first term with disputes over agriculture, medical devices, and digital services taxes. But he will push India very hard to increase imports of U.S. crude oil and LNG to mitigate trade imbalances.
Shared Interests
Trump sought to appeal to the Indian diaspora, a politically and economically influential group in the U.S. This trend would likely have intensified during his second term. His selection of JD Vance who is married to a Hindu American also played a role in shifting a chunk of Indian voters in the US who traditionally voted for the Democratic Party. But India must not mistake this as leverage and must tread carefully.
Under a second Trump presidency, India-U.S. ties would likely focus on strategic and defence cooperation, shared economic interests, and countering China’s influence. While trade disputes and immigration issues might present challenges, the overarching relationship would probably be strengthened due to converging geopolitical priorities.
Lessons for India
It was a sight to see the owners of X and Space X Elon Musk, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg at his inauguration. Nothing could have given the Democrats heartburn than watch the owners of the most powerful tech companies in the world support Trump. At the same time, we in India must also not give credence to those who undermine our corporations such as the Adani Group.
Their presence symbolises how important is the synergy between the state and commerce. The synergy between the state and commerce is vital for a nation’s progress because it ensures that economic growth and governance work together to achieve broader national goals, such as prosperity, security, and social well-being.
Businesses drive innovation, create jobs, and generate wealth, which fuels the economy and provides tax revenue for the state. When aligned, the state ensures that commerce operates in a way that benefits society, while businesses contribute to the nation’s economic engine. A robust commercial sector reduces reliance on foreign powers by fostering self-reliance in critical industries such as energy, defence, and technology.
The state ensures these industries align with national security interests through incentives, regulations, or partnerships. Synergy in this area helps maintain sovereignty and safeguards against external economic pressures.
Conclusion
For India, the time has come to ensure the synergy between the state and commerce is not compromised and if there are any misgivings that Trump will not take advantage of, then we are living in a fool’s paradise. Suppose we have to play the three-dimensional chess of international relations with Trump. In that case, we must support and ensure our economic growth is driven by innovation that safeguards our national interests.
Already, many in the Democratic Party are saying that Trump has been afflicted by the Messianic Complex, destined to save America. Men with grandiose ideas often fall victim to their imagination and the same has been said about Modi. Trump this time looks more determined and has assembled a team of capable people who understand his vision for the next four years and it is up to the world to figure out what is beneath the water he has muddied.
Balaji is a freelance writer with an MA in History and Political science and has published articles on defence and strategic affairs and book reviews. He tweets @LaxmanShriram78. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Shrivara Mahajan 
Prajwal K M