- European nations desire the Russia-Ukraine conflict to continue and thus prioritise security, economic, and geopolitical interests over peace, in opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump.
- According to polls conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations, a “geopolitical awakening” is sparked by the perception that protecting Ukraine is a European problem.
- Europe is worried about being controlled by Russia or the United States during peace negotiations, but it also wants to keep its geopolitical significance in Eastern Europe.
- One detail of particular note is a U.S.-Ukraine rare earth mineral deal, which may cost Europeans access to critical resources for green energy.
Introduction
The war between Russia and Ukraine is now well into its fourth year, and the conflict has transformed into a central point of international relations, reshaping both European security and the politics of global geopolitics. Though U.S. President Donald Trump, inaugurated in January 2025, has indicated that he wishes the war to be resolved by negotiations, European nations seem ready to continue supporting Ukraine’s fight. This article praises the multifaceted reasons for such thinking, security, economic and geopolitical; it examines the contentious U.S.-Ukraine rare earth mineral deal and cites European nations’ complaints about being neglected in peace talks.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 in February, tensions over the conflict surfaced, escalating from 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea. While the U.S. and European countries have given substantial aid to Ukraine, Trump’s victory has changed U.S. policy to seek a speedy resolution. Trump is reportedly demanding that any conditions that require the rare earth minerals of Ukraine, prized for their role in high-tech and green energy sectors, be made available to the United States in exchange for continued support. That has sparked worries in Europe about being marginalised in talks, mainly due to the war’s proximity and toll on the continent.
Security Interests: Safeguarding European Stability
The European countries, NATO and EU members, see this war as an immediate threat to their security. Ukraine represents a wall against Russian conquest, and should Russia be allowed to annex its conquered lands, it could embolden further aggression toward Russia’s neighbours in Eastern Europe. EU leaders have repeatedly reaffirmed their support for Ukrainian sovereignty while condemning Russia’s actions. However, taking a firm stand is imperative to maintain regional stability. According to polls conducted by a think tank, the European Council on Foreign Relations, a “geopolitical awakening” is sparked by the perception that protecting Ukraine is a European problem. EU leaders have repeatedly reaffirmed their support for Ukrainian sovereignty while condemning Russia’s actions. However, taking a firm stand is imperative to maintain regional stability.
Economic Interests: Defence Industry Boost
As European countries react to Russia’s activities and a changing security environment, the conflict has driven a boom in European defence expenditure, with the European Defense Agency projecting that spending would reach €326 billion in 2024, a 17% increase from 2020. By fostering economic development and employment possibilities, this boost helps the defence sector. As seen by Helsing, a German company that has secured a contract for 6,000 drones for Ukraine, European defence production has surged due to the fighting. Since Russia’s military expenditure currently surpasses that of Europe combined, ending the conflict would reduce this spending, which might result in severe economic disruptions.
Geopolitical Interests: Maintaining Influence
Similarly, Europe is worried about being controlled by Russia or the United States during peace negotiations, but it also wants to keep its geopolitical significance in Eastern Europe. As concerns mount that a second Trump term will eventually tip the U.S. in favour of Russia, the conflict has prompted EU leaders to call for more defence cooperation and expenditure. European politicians have emphasised the significance of Ukraine for its own (European) security. This was further highlighted by French President Emmanuel Macron, who recently stated, “Supporting Ukraine is essential to prevent further Russian encroachment on our borders.” At the same time, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasised that Ukraine’s defence protects European sovereignty.
The Rare Earth Mineral Deal: A Point of Contention
Ukraine has stores of rare earth minerals, about 5 per cent of global reserves, including lithium and titanium, essential for electric vehicles, electronics, and defence. The U.S., under Trump, is working to secure a deal for access to these resources. U.S. negotiators under President Trump have clarified that continued American support for Ukraine will hinge on securing favourable terms for accessing these minerals. This arrangement, though, can potentially leave European countries out in the cold as they are interested in securing these minerals for the green energy transition. In 2021, the EU signed a strategic partnership on raw materials with Ukraine that established its stake. Still, recent U.S. negotiations could leave Europe on the sideline, raising concerns over resource access and the health of transatlantic relations.
European Neglect/Excluded in Peace Talks
European countries might feel sidelined/excluded in peace negotiations, especially with reports of U.S.-Russia talks excluding them, like discussions held in Saudi Arabia. It is also the other side of the exclusion, which, with the mineral deal, could be perceived as an attempt to secure security interests and economic benefits over Europe. This is underscored by Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy’s appeals for European involvement and insistence on a joint strategy alongside America.
| Interest Category | Details | Impact of Ending War |
|---|---|---|
| Security | Buffer against Russian expansion, protect Eastern Europe | Increased risk of Russian aggression |
| Economic | Boost to defence industries, increased spending (€326B projected for 2024) | Potential economic disruptions, job losses |
| Geopolitical | Maintain influence, prevent U.S./Russia dominance in peace talks | Reduced European role in regional stability |
| Resource Access | Interest in Ukrainian rare earth minerals for green energy | Risk of exclusion from critical resources |
Conclusion
Three core imperatives drive Europe’s continued support for Ukraine:
- Security: Leaders like Macron and Scholz insist that Ukraine is a crucial barrier against further Russian aggression.
- Economic: The defence industry boom, evidenced by increased budgets and job creation, economically benefits the conflict’s continuation.
- Geopolitical: European nations are determined to secure their influence in Eastern Europe and avoid marginalisation in key resource negotiations.
European policymakers agree that maintaining a strong, cohesive defence posture is crucial, even though the U.S.-Ukraine rare earth mineral deal presents new difficulties that may restrict Europe’s access to vital resources. This agreement is motivated by the geopolitical imperative of maintaining influence, the need for security against the Russian threat, and the economic benefits of increased defence budgets.
Furthermore, there is growing worry that the continent’s long-term sovereignty will be jeopardised, leaving it open to future uncertainty and even invasions if the war ends on American terms rather than ones that protect European interests. Even though the rare earth mineral deal adds complexity by raising concerns about resource access and the potential exclusion of Europe from crucial peace discussions, the future course will depend on strong communication among transatlantic partners to ensure that security and economic interests are balanced in any eventual peace settlement. In the end, sustained multilateral negotiations are crucial for respecting the interests and sovereignty of all parties involved.
Citations/References:
- EU response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine detailed policy support
- Europe’s defence spending is projected to boom to €326B
- Taking action on geopolitical consequences of Russia’s war
- Rare earths and strategic minerals in Ukraine UN report
- What are Ukraine’s rare earths, and why does Trump want them? Reuters analysis
- Access to Ukraine’s rare earths may help keep U.S. aid flowing NPR coverage
- Russian defence spending overtakes Europe study findings
- Defending Europe without the US first estimates needed
- Europe talks up more defence spending as Ukraine peacekeeper plan divides
- No Agreement On Rare Earth After First Rounds Of U.S.-Ukraine Talks In Munich
- Ukraine’s critical minerals and Europe’s energy transition motivation for aggression
- The future of critical raw materials in Ukraine and the world WEF insights
- As Trump detonates its relationship with Ukraine, Europe has no fast answer
Shashank is a Master’s student in Diplomacy, Law, and Business at O.P. Jindal Global University. He is also a researcher and coordinator at the Center for Global South and the Center for Southeast Asian Studies. His research interests include Southeast Asia, Chinese foreign policy, India’s Act East Policy, and global security dynamics. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Aadeepto Majumdar 
Pranav S