Strategic and Security Concerns: China’s construction of a mega-dam on the Brahmaputra River poses significant water security and regional stability challenges for India, raising fears of water manipulation and flooding risks.
Environmental and Diplomatic Implications: Both nations face environmental risks, including earthquakes in the dam’s seismic location, necessitating cooperative disaster management and environmental protection measures.
India’s Strategic Response: India is proactively planning the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project to counter China’s actions and fostering regional cooperation, especially with Bangladesh, to address trans-boundary river issues.
Decision of China on the construction of the world’s largest dam on Brahmaputra River has enhanced tension between India and China, which increases so many issues related to water security and regional security. The $137 billion hydropower project is said to produce over 300 billion kw/h electricity every year and has been labelled as “Water bomb” by some military strategists in India. The constructed dam at the major gorge in the Himalayan addressing the several turns of the river before entering India adversely affects the supply of fresh water not only in India, but also its security aspect.
Credits: Rivers Insight
Traditionally, Brahmaputra River has been an important water source for millions of people in India and Bangladesh as it’s a perennial river originating in Tibet, flowing into Arunachal Pradesh and finally in Assam and eventually in Bangladesh. It has been backing up agriculture, drinking water sources and means of livelihood in these areas for centuries. But construction activities done by China particularly on the river has caused concern to India. The Chinese authorities claim that the construction of the dam will have no adverse effect on downstream states; however, India’s concern is rooted in the possibility of a water sharing agreement where in case of any dispute China can-open the gates and thus flood the downstream areas. China’s actions have forced India to shift its foreign policy stance that it has taken while dealing with water security. This problem is exacerbated by the lack of both an understanding and a legal treaty for the distribution of the water of trans-boundary rivers between India and China. Though they signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) back in 2002 for exchange of hydrological information in flood seasons, it has not been regular. For instance, the exchange of the data was put on hold whenever relations with the neighbor got sour, especially during and after the 2013 Doklam episode. This absence of a good communication system only deepens India’s concerns over China’s motives with the dam.
In view of these new trends emerging on the global scene, India is not sparing any effort to strengthen Water Security. The Indian government intends to build the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP) on Siang River that is a branch to the Brahmaputra. This project was designed to have an installed capacity of 11,000 MW and the dam would contain a water reservoir of 9 Bcm. In addition to the purpose of hydropower generation, the SUMP targets for river controlling and flood prevention due to the unexpected water surges arising from the Chinese dams. This project makes discussion of this dam project far from a simple administrative hydrological problem of water sharing as it deals with basic structures of national and regional security. It has however been pointed out by analysts that in the short-term direct confrontation over the source of water could not be expected but the dam under construction could turn into a focal point to existing tension and prolonged animosity along with border skirmishes.
Such a gigantic dam could encourage China to dominate more the resources for water shared between the two countries and hence complicate this relationship. In addition, one also needs to mention the dangers that threaten the environment resulting from construction of dams in seismically active areas. The place which has been selected for the construction of the dam has the potential for earthquakes because it falls in the tectonic plate area. Scientists have warned that an earthquake failure could lead to a disastrous event downstream flooding millions living off the water from the Brahmaputra. This risk calls for a cooperative diplomatic interaction in the areas of environment protection measures and disaster management between the two countries.
India’s reaction to China’s mega dam project, therefore, cannot be considered only reactionary, it is, to the contrary, a clear and strong strategic approach targeted at defending its interests and position within a not easy regional context. The Indian government has paid much attention to issues of trans-boundary rivers and has aimed at adopting diplomatic measures to encourage other downstream countries like Bangladesh to foster good relations pertaining to the river’s issues. Indian strategists consider China’s Himalayan mega dam project as a problem for its foreign and security policy. The risks posed by China that directly threaten India are in the form of manipulating water flows that is latency to agricultural productivity of India and stability in northeastern states such as Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. India looks forward to implementing its own hydropower projects and engaging more actively with its neighbors for managing the river’s water needs. The need to make intelligent decisions concerning this important resource will still depend on these two countries and their successful capability to fix common cooperating and negotiating points while they fight out interests that would shape water security in a more connected world.
References:
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Shrivara Mahajan is pursuing an International Relations major with a minor in Public Policy at OP Jindal Global University. He is a Senior Intern at the Jindal Centre for the Global South and has priorly interned with The Spread Smile Foundation. Views expressed are the author’s own.
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