· Rise of Left in Sri Lanka: Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) secured a significant victory in the 2024 election, positioning the left at the forefront of Sri Lanka’s politics after the 2022 economic crisis.
· Economic Uncertainty: There is skepticism about the ability of a Marxist-led government to manage IMF negotiations and revive Sri Lanka’s fragile economy, despite prior successes in reducing inflation.
· Geopolitical Significance: Sri Lanka remains a key player in the Indian Ocean, balancing relations between India, China, and other powers, while navigating economic fragility and regional security dynamics.
In the unprecedented election of 2024, Sri Lanka voted for Marxist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) as president. This was significant as it followed the 2022 economic breakdown and the subsequent fall of the Rajapaksa government, leading to the formation of a mixed government to deal with the precarious economic situation. This election seeks to bring stability to the country. It is interesting to note that AKD comes from a party historically accused of coup insurrections in the 1970s and 1980s.
Sri Lanka is a key country, playing a crucial role in the Indian Ocean Region. Its stability and development are essential for India, and it has direct implications for Indian security strategy. Regime changes in South Asia have been a concern for New Delhi in recent history, making it imperative for India to maintain cordial relations with the AKD government.
RISE OF THE LEFT IN SRI LANKA
AKD’s National People’s Power (NPP) has brought the left to the forefront of the country’s politics. The NPP capitalized on the 2022 uprising and expanded its influence through social media. With the decline of right-wing populism, the NPP successfully filled the political space. AKD pledged to fight corruption and promised the establishment of an “independent bribery commission” under the Anti-corruption Act. Major campaign promises included anti-corruption measures, renegotiation of IMF loans, reducing the cost of living, and cutting taxes to support the poor. Though 38 candidates were in the race, the main focus was on Dissanayake, incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa, and Naval Rajapaksa. AKD secured the largest vote share at 42.31%, while Premadasa garnered 32%, and Wickremesinghe received 17.27%. It was the first time preferential vote counting was used, as no candidate received more than 50% of the vote in the first round. In the second round, AKD emerged victorious. However, in the Tamil-majority districts of Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, and Nuwara Eliya, NPP’s vote share was low, with Premadasa’s Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) securing 41.83% of the vote, Wickremesinghe 25%, and NPP only 15%.
PESSIMISM OVER THE ECONOMY
There is widespread pessimism regarding the ability of a Marxist party to negotiate with the IMF and manage a liberal market economy. Although the NPP presented itself as reformist, reviving Sri Lanka’s fragile economy will be a daunting task for Dissanayake. While Ranil Wickremesinghe managed to reduce inflation from 70% to single digits and strengthen the currency reserves, the high cost of living remains a significant problem.
INTERNATIONAL IMPACT
There are limited expectations of any drastic shifts in Sri Lanka’s foreign policy toward India or China. Sri Lanka is likely to continue its balancing act. However, concerns remain in New Delhi over the frequent visits of Chinese vessels to Sri Lankan ports, which pose a direct threat to India’s security. AKD has previously assured India that Sri Lankan land, airspace, and ports will not be used against Indian interests. In February 2024, Dissanayake visited India and engaged with External Affairs Minister Dr. Jaishankar. NSA Ajit Doval also met Dissanayake during his last visit to Colombo. After securing victory, Indian High Commissioner Santosh Jha visited to congratulate him, and Prime Minister Modi was among the first world leaders to do so. These engagements suggest that India is actively engaging with all parties in Sri Lanka, and it is expected that Sri Lanka’s policies toward India will remain stable.
SIMMERING GEOPOLITICS
Sri Lanka is deeply involved in the geopolitical competition for dominance over major sea routes. Its strategic location makes it a key player in the Indian Ocean, where global powers such as India, China, the USA, and others are competing for influence. India aims to maintain naval supremacy in the Indian Ocean, but this is being challenged by China, which seeks to extend its dominance from the South China Sea to the Persian Gulf. Sri Lanka can benefit from this competition by navigating it diplomatically, but it also faces the risk of militarization in the region, which could pose security threats. Anura Kumara Dissanayake must manage these relationships carefully, ensuring Sri Lanka does not tilt too heavily in any one direction. The country requires assistance from all major powers to stabilize its fragile economy.
CONCLUSION
Based on initial statements and election rhetoric, it seems the Dissanayake-led government does not intend to antagonize any major partner. It has promised to renegotiate IMF packages, which will require the assistance of all powers, particularly the Western bloc. Bilateral lenders have also restructured their loans, and demands for similar terms from countries like India and Japan, comparable to those given to China, are growing. It will be interesting to see how a Marxist-led government implements neoliberal IMF policies.
Balaji Subramanian 
Dhruv Ashok 
Aayush Pal