- The India-Afghanistan-Pakistan triangle significantly impacts South Asia’s peace and stability, with Afghanistan playing a central role due to its geostrategic location.
- India seeks to use soft power to maintain influence in Afghanistan, while Pakistan relies on proxies, reflecting contrasting approaches that require Afghanistan to balance relationships with both neighbours.
- The dynamic between these countries shapes regional geopolitics, highlighting the need for India to promote inclusivity, Pakistan to end proxy strategies, and Afghanistan to prioritize sovereignty and economic growth.
The recent developments, where the Taliban plans to strengthen diplomatic ties and at the same time wage attacks on neighbouring countries, along with their growing interest in economic corridors, have reignited the strategic importance of the India-Afghanistan-Pakistan triangle.
In the past two decades, the geopolitics of the South Asian region has been shaped by the dynamic triangular relationship between India, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The triangle and its power dynamics are the determining forces of peace, stability, and harmony in the South Asian region. With a history of border disputes, these three countries have had much to lock horns over. It is upon this triangular relationship that the prospects of peace and stability in the South Asian region depend. The strategic positioning and political decisions of these countries profoundly impact each other and the South Asian region at large. Therefore, the triangle is crucial, as the implications are far-reaching and mutually inclusive.
With its connectivity, flourishing human capital, and a plethora of natural resources, Asia has every potential to be the leading continent if it acts in unison. Owing to its geostrategic location, Afghanistan is the unspoken heart of the continent. Located at the centre of Asian trade and economic junctions, and acting as a corridor between Central, West, South, and East Asia, Afghanistan commands considerable influence over the continent in general and South Asia in particular.
The geopolitical landscape of South Asia is moulded by a complex interplay of factors like culture, history, and strategic location, which have shaped the relationship and rapport between the neighbouring countries. Among these, the most prominent is the “deadly triangle,” as mentioned by Zachary Constantino, a senior US government analyst. The ‘India-Afghanistan-Pakistan’ triangle is a complex tapestry shaped by historical legacies, security challenges, and geopolitical shifts.
For a country like India striving to be a leading power, Afghanistan is a prominent ground due to its strategic location, which would put India’s extended neighbourhood policy into practice by acting as its key corridor to West and Central Asia. Remarkable ties with Afghanistan would ensure regional dominance over India’s immediate hostile neighbour, whose hostility dates back to partition, preventing Islamabad-backed militant groups from using Afghanistan as their breeding ground. However, India, as an advocate of democracy, might be apprehensive about entering into cordial relations or full-fledged engagements with a country ruled by the Taliban. This could have serious implications for India’s international image.
India must diplomatically navigate this situation. Rather than framing it as an agreement with the Taliban, it could be understood as a pursuit of peace or economic ties with Afghanistan’s government. At the same time, India need not compromise on its principles and can maintain its image as a champion of democracy. India should work toward a cordial relationship with Afghanistan, as this will aid growth, economic stability, and strategic influence in the region while addressing apprehensions about ties with the Taliban. India must learn from its past success stories, such as its development projects in Afghanistan, including the Salma Dam and the Zaranj-Delaram Highway, to leverage soft power without appearing to endorse the Taliban’s governance.
Despite age-old border disputes and contestation over the Durand Line, Pakistan has had considerable influence over Afghanistan. Pashtunistanism and border disputes, combined with cross-border terrorism, have brought cracks in diplomatic ties, but Afghanistan remains the trump card Pakistan reserves to play against India. Influence in Afghanistan is sought mainly to confront, damage, and frustrate Indian aims. From using Afghanistan as a breeding ground for terrorists deployed against India to inciting it against India, Pakistan has left no card unplayed. However, Pakistan’s overreliance on Afghanistan as a strategic tool has often backfired, leading to increased domestic instability and fostering mistrust among international allies.
Afghanistan may be the least powerful of the three countries, but it is not a passive actor. The ties Afghanistan chooses to maintain and break will have a profound impact on short-term and long-term peace, harmony, and governance in the region. This is evident in the paradigm shift in Afghanistan’s foreign policies and affiliations in the post-2001 period and the impact it had on the triangle. New Delhi and Kabul’s relations improved during the post-Taliban era, resulting in more peaceful and stable years in the subcontinent. Kabul must skillfully manage ties with New Delhi and Islamabad to cater to its needs without disappointing its immediate neighbours. It is also crucial for Afghanistan to manage ties with both India and Pakistan for financial aid from the former and trade transit and stability from the latter. Afghanistan’s ability to balance its relationships will determine its prospects for rebuilding its economy and maintaining internal stability.
India and Pakistan pursue mutually exclusive objectives except for regional dominance. Pakistan utilized the Afghan Taliban as strategic proxies, whereas India pursued soft power influence among Afghans in the post-2001 era. India envisioned getting closer to Kabul to connect to Central Asia and maintain regional peace. The contrast in their approaches highlights the necessity of a balanced Afghan foreign policy that does not favour one neighbour at the expense of the other.
Thus, the geopolitics of South Asia has been shaped by the dynamic triangular relationship between India, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, on which the prospects of peace, governance, and stability in South Asia depend. This dynamic relationship, in turn, resonates globally. The triangle seems to be a security complex where the concerns of one country profoundly impact the others. For this reason, India must continue advocating for a peaceful, inclusive Afghanistan, Pakistan must move beyond its proxy war strategy, and Afghanistan must maintain a delicate balance to secure its sovereignty and economic growth. This dynamic relationship holds the key to unlocking South Asia’s potential as a stable and prosperous region.
Megha Joshy Mathew is a research scholar from the Department of Politics and International Studies at Pondicherry University. Views expressed are the author’s own.
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