Macron’s Rightward Shift: Barnier’s Appointment as PM Signals a New Era for France

• Michel Barnier’s appointment as Prime Minister by Emmanuel Macron signals a shift toward right-wing politics, aiming to stabilize the government after a fragmented parliamentary result.
• Barnier’s conservative ties and focus on immigration and security resonate with the far-right National Rally, whose support is conditional on addressing these key issues.
• Barnier faces immediate challenges, including drafting the 2025 budget and balancing controversial reforms, with his success hinging on building alliances across a divided parliament.

The appointment of Michel Barnier as the new Prime Minister of France by President Emmanuel Macron marks a significant transition in French governance, signalling a shift toward the right. This follows months of political deadlock since the snap elections in March, which resulted in a hung parliament, with no party able to secure an outright majority. Barnier, a veteran of the mainstream right and former chief Brexit negotiator for the European Union, combines traditional Gaullist values while avoiding strict ideological constraints, aligning him more closely with Macron’s tilt toward the right in the French parliament.

Political Context

The key to understanding Barnier’s appointment lies in the aftermath of the June elections, where Macron’s centrist coalition suffered significant losses, resulting in a fragmented parliament. The New Popular Front (NPF) emerged as the largest bloc, but Macron opted not to ally with the left. Instead, he chose Barnier, who hails from the conservative Les Républicains party, to stabilize his government in the face of a volatile assembly. At 73, Barnier is the oldest prime minister in modern French history, having previously served as foreign and agricultural minister. His conservative background positions him as a potential bipartisan figure, though his policies may lean toward the political right.

Implications for the French Right  

Barnier’s appointment indicates a growing influence of right-wing politics in France. His ties to the conservative party, and calls for stricter immigration policies, resonate with elements of the National Rally, marking a shift in French political dynamics since the 1970s. While the National Rally has not outright opposed Barnier, they have made their support conditional on his stance on key issues like immigration, security, and the cost of living. Their increasing power in the reshuffled political landscape signals the mainstreaming of far-right rhetoric. Jordan Bardella, leader of the National Rally, warned that Barnier’s government could face collapse if it fails to address these issues, suggesting Macron may need to make concessions to the far-right.

Future of Macron’s Government

From day one, Barnier’s government will face significant challenges, particularly in drafting the 2025 national budget, amid demands from the European Commission and bond markets for deficit reduction. Barnier aims to win over conservative districts and supports controversial reforms, such as raising the retirement age, while balancing citizen concerns. His success will depend on his ability to navigate the complex political environment and build alliances across party lines. His openness to including members from various political backgrounds, including the left, reflects a willingness to negotiate. However, the realities of a hung parliament may force Barnier to govern from the right to secure enough votes for key legislation.

Conclusion 

Michel Barnier’s appointment as Prime Minister represents a strategic move toward right-wing politics within Macron’s government. This shift aims to stabilize a government facing declining approval ratings and will influence future policies on immigration and social issues. France’s political landscape is uncertain, and Barnier’s leadership in a fragmented parliament dominated by far-right forces could reshape the country’s politics significantly.

References:

• _{President Emmanuel Macron appoints Michel Barnier as the new French PM-https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/president-emmanuel-macron-aapoints-michel-barnier-as-new-french-pm-124090501544_1.html}
• _{France’s Macron names Brexit negotiator Barnier as new prime minister-https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-weighs-barnier-option-drawn-out-search-prime-minister-2024-09-05}
• _{In picking Barnier, Macron has put his – and France’s – fate in Le Pen’s hands-https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/06/michel-barnier-emmanuel-macron-france-marine-le-pen}

Parag Gilada

Parag is pursuing his master’s at the Jindal School of International Affairs. Views expressed are the author’s own.