Pakistan’s historical support for the Taliban, including financial aid and training, has shaped a complex relationship that significantly impacts regional geopolitics and India’s strategic interests.
Recent strains in Taliban-Pakistan relations, fueled by TTP attacks and Pakistan’s internal crises, present both challenges and opportunities for India’s influence in the region.
India leverages humanitarian aid, infrastructure projects, and the Chabahar port to counter Pakistan’s dominance in Afghanistan while pursuing strategic objectives in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
Examining the relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban is essential to understanding India’s strategic outlook in the region, particularly in light of the Taliban’s stability and growth alongside Pakistan’s internal crisis. It is clear that, despite their occasional disagreements, the Taliban maintain close ties with Pakistan, creating a geopolitically complex situation that impacts India.
Historical Context: Support and Dependence
Pakistan supported the Taliban regime in Afghanistan from 1994 to 2001, providing an estimated $30 million in direct support annually. Pakistan’s contributions extended beyond finances; it funded madrasas that trained up to 40% of Taliban fighters in the 1990s, demonstrating its significant influence over the group. A notable example is the IC 814 hijacking in December 1999, where Pakistan collaborated with the Taliban to grant hijackers landing rights in Kandahar for negotiations with India while ensuring their safe return to Pakistan. This incident highlights the cooperation and manipulation characterizing the Pakistan-Taliban relationship.
Post-9/11 Dynamics: Funding and Support
Between 2002 and 2018, the United States provided Pakistan with nearly $33 billion to combat terrorism. However, a substantial portion of this funding inadvertently benefited the Taliban due to the porous Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Despite efforts by successive U.S. administrations, including Obama and Trump, Pakistan’s dual role as both a counter-terrorism partner and Taliban supporter persisted.
In recent years, the relationship between the Pakistan government and the Afghan Taliban has soured. The AKIS Report 2023 links over 400 attacks to the TTP, a branch of the Afghan Taliban, resulting in a 79% increase in terrorism-related deaths in Pakistan. The emergence of the TTP has pressured Pakistan’s security forces, leading to airstrikes targeting Taliban sanctuaries in Afghanistan. This internal conflict has compounded Pakistan’s external risks with significant internal turmoil.
Pressure Point for Pakistan
Pakistan faces mounting challenges, including provocations against Iran and growing militancy from the TTP. Its economic condition is dire, with the former Army Chief General Bajwa admitting a lack of fuel even for military vehicles. This situation has forced Pakistan to shift its defensive focus from the Line of Control (LoC) against India to the western front with Afghanistan.
India’s Strategic Interests
India has identified strategic opportunities in this volatile climate. While not recognizing the Taliban government, India has provided humanitarian aid, including 50,000 tons of wheat, and continues to build goodwill through infrastructure development. Utilizing the Chabahar port in Iran, India seeks to enhance Afghanistan’s connectivity while undermining Pakistan’s regional influence. Pakistan’s focus on its western frontier may allow India to advance its objectives in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). The current turbulence in Pakistan offers India an opportunity to strengthen its position in Afghanistan.
A Changing Geopolitical Map
The evolving Taliban-Pakistan relationship presents both opportunities and threats for India. While historical interactions shape current dynamics, Pakistan’s economic instability and internal crises provide India with avenues to bolster its regional influence. Effective navigation of these geopolitical developments will be crucial for India to safeguard its strategic interests in South Asia.
References:
Afghanistan: Is India warming up to Taliban? – https://www.dw.com/en/afghanistan-is-india-warming-up-to-taliban/a-70778737
Pakistan, Taliban and the Afghan Quagmire – https://www.brookings.edu/articles/pakistan-taliban-and-the-afghan-quagmire/
Where Do Taliban-Pakistan Relations Stand Now? – https://thediplomat.com/2024/03/where-do-taliban-pakistan-relations-stand-now
Dealing With the Taliban: India’s Strategy in Afghanistan After U.S. Withdrawal –https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2020/06/dealing-with-the-taliban-indias-strategy-in-afghanistan-after-us-withdrawal?lang=en
Parag is pursuing his master’s at the Jindal School of International Affairs. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Satish Chogule 
Aayush Pal