The Syrian civil war has escalated, with insurgents capturing Aleppo, threatening broader regional instability and increasing Russian involvement to protect strategic assets like the Tartus naval base.
Donald Trump’s return to office in 2025 introduces uncertainty, as his non-interventionist policies clash with emerging crises, potentially reshaping U.S. involvement in Syria and its ripple effects globally.
The conflict’s impact, coupled with a global recession, exacerbates economic volatility, humanitarian crises, and geopolitical tensions, affecting energy security and international relations, including India’s strategic interests.
In late November 2024, the civil war in Syria intensified as insurgent groups, primarily Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a prominent Sunni Islamist militant group, launched a surprise offensive, capturing significant portions of Aleppo, the nation’s largest city. This marked the first time since 2016 that opposition forces have control over extensive areas of Aleppo.
However, what this now means in the larger scheme of things is that there is a good chance of the war spreading to the Middle East, where there are different sets of interests, each angling for gains or survival. Although the Syrian civil war has had no direct impact on Central Asia, it is an area of growing interest to international powers due to its vast natural resources.
The Syrian conflict, along with broader instability in the Middle East, has affected global energy prices and markets, which, in turn, impacts Central Asia’s economies. Oil and gas pipelines that pass through or are connected to Central Asia could be affected by the broader regional instability.
But the silver lining is Donald Trump, who will assume office on January 20, 2025, and there is a possibility that things may play out differently. However, until then, it is clear that chaos will rule, which, for all intents and purposes, has been manufactured to make things complicated for Trump. One of the election promises Trump made was to end the Russia-Ukraine war, but more importantly, he made it clear that no more U.S. tax dollars will be spent to give Ukraine weapons.
One of the tactics Trump plans to use is to make it clear to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that if he resists negotiations, U.S. support may be reduced. This approach aims to balance incentives and pressures to facilitate a rapid resolution. At the same time, he will also impose pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin, but it will be mostly ceremonial.
But the cause for concern now is Syria, and the crisis is burgeoning. The sudden loss of an important city, which Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad spent four years reclaiming, has fueled the conflict. The way things are unraveling, Russia, which is already involved in protecting its interests in Syria, particularly the Tartus naval base, could increase its operations.
This port, located on the Mediterranean Sea, has been a critical logistical hub for Russian naval operations and military support in the region. Tartus is Russia’s only naval facility in the Mediterranean and has served as a vital point for resupplying and maintaining its naval fleet for over fifty years, following a 1971 agreement between Syria and the Soviet Union. Under no circumstances will Russia allow the opposition to take control of Syria.
For Russia, any threat to Tartus means it will have to deploy additional troops, naval vessels, and advanced weapons systems (e.g., S-400 air defense systems) to bolster the base’s defenses. Already, the Russian air force has carried out strikes against rebel positions. If the threat persists, Russia might escalate its military involvement in Syria, leveraging its presence in Tartus to justify broader intervention against rebel factions or terrorist groups.
Why Tartus Is Crucial to Russia
- Geopolitical Influence: Tartus is Russia’s gateway to the Mediterranean, giving it a naval foothold in the Middle East and access to key maritime trade routes.
- Military Power Projection: The base enables Russia to project power far from its borders, supporting operations in the Mediterranean, North Africa, and beyond.
- Strategic Alliances: Its presence solidifies Russia’s alliance with Syria and strengthens its role as a major player in Middle Eastern politics.
If Russia escalates its military involvement in Syria, the West would likely respond with a mix of diplomatic, economic, and indirect military actions, carefully calibrated to avoid direct confrontation with Moscow while advancing its own interests in the region. At the same time, Western countries could increase their support for opposition factions in Syria, providing arms, intelligence, and training to groups opposing both Assad and Russian influence.
Already, there is enough evidence of covert operations being conducted to undermine Russian and Syrian government efforts, using cyber tactics or covert missions to disrupt military logistics. This will only further lead to the conflict spreading to other areas, resulting in a massive humanitarian crisis.
Global Economic Impact Amid Recession
The Syrian conflict and the global recession have a symbiotic relationship, each exacerbating the effects of the other. The war has destabilized the Middle East, contributing to broader economic volatility and migration crises, while the global recession and economic strains on donor countries have limited the resources available for Syria’s reconstruction and humanitarian aid.
Together, they have intensified geopolitical tensions, made the recovery of Syria more difficult, and prolonged the region’s instability. As the global economy continues to face challenges, especially in energy prices, inflation, and international trade disruptions, the effects of both the Syrian conflict and the global recession will likely continue to reverberate for years to come.
India
While India has largely stayed out of the direct military aspects of the Syrian conflict, the global recession and regional instability have affected its economy, security, and diplomatic relations. The Syrian conflict has indirectly influenced India’s energy security, geopolitical concerns, and counterterrorism efforts, while the global recession has posed challenges to India’s export markets, inflation, and economic recovery.
Conclusion
The Syrian civil war began in March 2011. For over 13 years, this conflict, which started as part of the broader wave of uprisings in the Arab Spring, with protests demanding democratic reforms and the resignation of President Bashar al-Assad, has led to the death of over 500,000 civilians. Millions have been injured, and more than 13 million people have been displaced, both internally and as refugees abroad, creating problems of their own in Western Europe.
For Donald Trump, the more he desires to withdraw U.S. forces and avoid deeper involvement in Syria, this new development, which has taken many by surprise as the focus was on Russia-Ukraine and Israel’s actions against Hamas and Hezbollah, complicates matters.
Trump’s administration oversaw the final defeat of the ISIS territorial caliphate, which had controlled significant parts of Syria and Iraq. But it now seems Trump, who wants to implement his America First non-intervention policy, is faced with the dilemma of a conflict that cannot be won, lost, or abandoned, which is extremely disturbing.
If unchecked, any escalation will only lead to increased Russian military presence in Syria, prolonging instability and turning Syria into a more entrenched battleground for global and regional powers. This would likely result in a stalemated conflict, with limited prospects for resolution, as various actors prioritize their strategic interests over Syria’s recovery. Syria could become the new battleground for the Great Game as the military-industrial complex moves to a new playground.
References:
https://www.cfr.org/article/arab-spring-ten-years-whats-legacy-uprisings
Balaji is a freelance writer with an MA in History and Political science and has published articles on defence and strategic affairs and book reviews. He tweets @LaxmanShriram78. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Prajwal K M 
Dhruv Ashok