- Russia’s Strategic Push: Russia is advocating for a strategic alliance with India and China to counter Western hegemony, leveraging shared historical, cultural, and civilizational identities.
- India’s Mediatory Role: India, positioning itself as a peace advocate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has been involved in backchannel diplomacy potentially influencing Indo-China relations.
- Constructivist Lens: Theoretical constructivism highlights how shared identities and historical narratives could foster alliances despite realist challenges.
- Geopolitical Prospects: A Russia-India-China alliance could reshape global power dynamics, but conflicting interests and strategic complexities limit its feasibility.
Over the past few months, there has been a turbulent increase in conflict situations worldwide. From a further deterioration of the situation between Iran and Israel to the Russian threat of a potential nuclear strike, there is an increase in the de-stability of the world order. With this atmosphere in the world, Russia is conceptualising a strategic alliance, attempting to develop closer strategic partnerships with China and India and, principally, counter the existing Western hegemony. By garnering better strategic partnerships on an incremental scale, Russia attempts to bridge the strategic gaps that exist between India and China and thereby aims to create a longstanding triple strategic alliance between China, India and Russia.
Although Russia’s immediate geopolitical condition would be acting as a push factor for this alliance, the reasons of identity, historical connections and cultural past of both China and India also play a role in bringing together this triple alliance. This provides us with the base for the theoretical framework of constructivism, a popular theory in international relations that states, “International relations is a social construction. Social phenomena such as states or alliances international institutions or any other phenomena such as states or alliances or international institutions or any other phenomena may build on the basic material of human nature, but they take specific historical, cultural, and political forms that are a product of human interaction in a social world” (Nicolas Onuf, 1979).
Russia’s quest to reclaim its historical identity which espoused its glorious past, which China’s hegemonic assertion of its civilizational might and legacy combined with India’s neo-internationalist narrative of an ancient civilization with aspirations to be a global power, a “Vishwaguru”, provides a conducive blend of social, cultural and historical constructs to form a strategic alliance. Although we see close strategic cooperation between Russia and China on the one hand and Russia and India on the other, the chances of India and China heading towards any serious strategic cooperation are grim. However, it is essential to understand the reasons behind Russia’s push for this triple alliance and the prospective geopolitical realignments with the rise of this alliance.
Intelligence game plans and strategic manoeuvring.
PM Narendra Modi visited Russia and Ukraine subsequently in July and August. He met Putin, followed by Zelensky in the following month, and conveyed a key message after both visits, “India was never neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict; it has always sided with peace”. This clearly indicated to the world that India is ready to play the role of a principal mediator in the prospects of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which ultimately aim to end the conflict. As per the trusted sources, the external intelligence agency of Russia had kept a close watch over PM Modi’s visits to both Russia and Ukraine. Their main intention was to strategically utilize Modi’s visits, not just as a leverage mechanism in the war with Ukraine, but to manoeuvre and design the triple strategic alliance between Russia, India and China.
When India’s NSA (National Security Advisor), Mr Ajit Doval paid a visit to Russia and met President Putin, to lay out India’s peace plan for the war in Ukraine, an important strategic covert meet of all the top external intelligence people from all three countries (Russia, China and India) is supposed to have taken place. Although not much is publicly known about Ajit Doval’s visit to Russia, it is believed that Russian intelligence has laid out the proposal for a prospective Indo-China-Russian alliance. Fundamentally, Russia seeks longstanding strategic cooperation in Economic and Military dimensions from India and China. It has appealed to the ancient civilizational contact, connection, and consciousness that India shares with China, along with the essence of spirituality and philosophical amalgamation that both countries have with each other. Therefore, Russia is strongly advocating for the normalization of the relationship between India and China.
Although the realists practising hardcore realpolitik might not foresee a possibility of this alliance taking shape in any form or shape, Social Constructivists help us by providing a new theoretical dimension to this. In international relations, social constructivism strongly emphasises how common beliefs, customs, and identities influence state conduct and world politics. Constructivism emphasises how social interactions and shared understandings impact the creation of alliances, in contrast to realism or liberal views that emphasise institutional arrangements or material power.
According to this viewpoint, shared cultural values, historical narratives, and shared identities all influence geopolitical alliances in addition to strategic concerns. Democracies, for instance, frequently create coalitions to defend common ideals like freedom and human rights because they believe they belong to the same ideological community. Constructivism also clarifies how alliances can change as norms and identities change over time. Redefining their identities and creating new common understandings might lead states to ally with erstwhile rivals. Furthermore, as states employ conversation to establish shared objectives and settle disputes, this theory emphasises the importance of discourse and communication in forming alliances. Thus, social constructivism offers a sophisticated paradigm for comprehending geopolitical alliances, showing that these relationships are practical and intricately woven into the social fabric of international relations.
It is imperative for all theoreticians, scholars and practitioners of International relations and Strategic Affairs that Identity and historical memory play an important role in forming alliances and partnerships. Russia’s sense of nationhood and civilizational consciousness is primarily due to ethnic Russians living in the Central Asian region. Through centuries of historical contacts, cultural exchanges, and imperial expansion, Russia’s notion of civilisation in Central Asia has developed. Because of its history along the Silk Road, Central Asia has been a crossroads of civilisations since the 7th century. Russia presented its expansion into the area in the 18th and 19th centuries as a “civilising mission,” bringing modernity and orthodoxy to a territory it considered “backward” due to Islamic and nomadic customs.
During Soviet domination, when Russia’s supremacy was defended by fostering socialist modernisation and a common Soviet identity, this narrative was further strengthened. By highlighting how Russia created its identity and ties with Central Asia through common norms, ideologies, and historical narratives, social constructivism clarifies this process. Russia’s claims to be the leader of civilisation were strategic and closely linked to its perception of itself as the region’s cultural and political hegemon. This tradition is still present today in Russia’s portrayal of Central Asia as a region of influence connected by linguistic, cultural, and historical ties. Constructivism emphasises how these socially manufactured identities and perceptions are the foundation for Russia’s geopolitical strategies, impacting its regional security frameworks, economic endeavours, and relationships.
Possibilities, prospects, and limitations:
An interesting yet significant development must be noted if we try to contextualise the possibility of a triple alliance between Russia, Ukraine, and India. A month after NSA Ajit Doval’s visit to Russia, India’s long-standing standoff with China in Eastern Ladakh ended, with China confirming the agreement to end the four-year-long standoff in the Galwan region. There is a possibility that this can be a coincidence. However, the role played by Russian Intelligence and its strategic community in ensuring a covert mediation with India and China cannot be ruled out. Normalization of India’s relations with China is certainly in Russian interest as it is the most effective counter-alliance mechanism. It can bring about a major paradigm shift in the world order and act as a robust strategic force against the West.
Given the countries’ conflicting priorities and common interests, the possibility of a triple strategic alliance involving China, Russia, and India is exciting and complicated. This possible partnership might check Western hegemony, especially the US’s sway over international affairs. Russia sees such an alliance as a means of ensuring geopolitical and economic stability as it looks to strengthen its position in the face of Western sanctions. China’s desire to promote cooperative relationships across Asia, especially through trade and infrastructural projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, aligns with its growing global aspirations. While tackling issues like energy security and multipolarity, the alliance might strengthen India’s strategic autonomy and ensure regional stability.
However, differences still exist: Russia’s relations with China risk marginalising India, while China and India have long-standing border issues and conflicting interests in South Asia. Resolving these disagreements through common frameworks on trade, security, and multilateralism would be necessary for a functional alliance. BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) may be used as venues to promote collaboration. Such an alliance might reshape global power dynamics and promote a multipolar world order based on respect for one another and common goals, even though the idea is still lofty.
Although the limitations of this proposed alliance by Russian Intelligence and the strategic community are mired with several strategic complexities and limitations, its success cannot be ruled out completely. All three countries have robust intelligence agencies that often interact and collaborate to develop key backchannel diplomacy networking. The characteristics and strategic foresight of Russia in Eurasian (Asia and Europe) are pivotal in the conceptualization of this triple alliance, as Russia views itself as a larger part of the Asian civilization. As intelligence agencies do not operate solely in the constructivist sphere, considering the competing national interests and strategic complexities of their respective nations, a popular quotation by the 19th-century British Prime Minister Lord Palmerston has to be kept in mind: “There are no permanent friends or enemies in geopolitics, but the interests are paramount”.
References:
- The Idea of a Civilization State and its Influence on Indian and Chinese Foreign Policies Samvada World. Samvada World. https://samvadaworld.com/analysis/the-idea-of-a-civilization-state-and-its-influence-on-indian-and-chinese-foreign-policies/
- Riehle, K. (2024). The Ukraine war and the shift in Russian intelligence priorities. Intelligence & National Security, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2024.2322807
- MSN. (2024). Msn.com. https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/nsa-ajit-dovals-visit-to-russia-has-multiple-objectives-says-foreign-affairs-expert/ar-AA1qebfa.
Viswapramod is a PhD Scholar at the Department of International Studies and Political Science, Christ University, Bangalore. He has an MA in International Relations. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Dr. Niranjan B Poojar 
Aayush Pal 
Shobhil Shrivastava