- For more than thirty years, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been engaged in a bitter struggle over land, identity, and survival that has resulted in wars and invited meddling by almost every regional and global power.
- Now, with fading dominance and the weakening of Iran in recent events, the United States sees the opportunity, for the first time in history, to carve out a physical presence in the heart of Eurasia.
- The Zangezur Corridor would house fibre-optic cables, pipelines, railroads, and highways and will create lucrative business opportunities for his network of colleagues.
- By positioning himself as the indispensable peacemaker, Trump sets up a sharp contrast with President Biden’s foreign policy approach, which he often criticises as reactive and unfocused.
After years of bloodshed, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a joint declaration on 8th August in Washington, suspending hostilities and renouncing further territorial claims against one another. On the surface, this appears to be the beginning of peace, but beneath the rhetoric, the agreement has geopolitical ramifications that go far beyond Yerevan and Baku. For more than thirty years, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been engaged in a bitter struggle over land, identity, and survival that has resulted in wars, destroyed societies, displaced thousands, and invited meddling by almost every regional and global power. At its heart lies the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh and a tangle of exclaves, borders, and ethnic fault lines that stretch across the South Caucasus, a region perched precariously between Europe and Asia.
The president of the United States, Donald Trump, has taken advantage of the situation by positioning himself as the architect of this peace and reiterating his long-standing claim to the Nobel Peace Prize. To understand why, and how this apparently regional agreement has become a stage for global power plays, we must analyse not only Armenia and Azerbaijan but also the Turks, the Iranians, the Russians and Trump’s own peculiar form of “rent-seeking diplomacy.”
Trump’s Nobel Dream
In recent weeks, the White House circulated a graphic featuring Donald Trump on one side, the Nobel Peace Prize medal on the other, and a list of nations that have formally endorsed him for the honour. Trump’s importance in resolving conflicts is acknowledged by each administration. This shows that for Trump, however, the symbolism matters more than the nuance. Ever since Barack Obama received the Nobel Prize back in 2009, Trump has dreamed of it as validation of his global stature. With the Armenia–Azerbaijan ceasefire, he sees another opportunity to stake his claim as a peacemaker, though his style of peacemaking looks very different from traditional diplomacy.
The Unequal Neighbours
The ceasefire was signed by Nikol Pashinyan, the prime minister of Armenia, who took office after his predecessor was overthrown due to widespread demonstrations and military defeat and Ilham Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, who has ruled for 22 years and has carried on the dynasty his father founded in 1993. With 10 million inhabitants and an approximate land area of 86,000 square kilometres, Azerbaijan is more than twice as large as Armenia, which has slightly less than 3 million residents and an area of 29,000 square kilometres. While Aliyev’s dictatorship maintains strict control over Azerbaijan, Armenia is a democracy where presidents come and go.
After the first Nagorno-Karabakh war in 1992–1994, Armenia maintained its dominance for decades despite their size and power disparity. In that era, the much bigger Azerbaijani forces were defeated by the smaller but more professional Armenian army, which took control of Nagorno-Karabakh and the neighbouring areas.
Azerbaijan, however, bided its time. Over the next three decades, with oil wealth, Baku upgraded its military, acquired sophisticated drones and missile systems from Israel and Turkey, and gained diplomatic backing. The balance had shifted by 2020.
Nagorno-Karabakh: The Enclave at the Centre of the Conflict
In 2020, when the war erupted once again, Azerbaijan was much more prepared and strong. Azerbaijani forces used Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones and Israeli-made loitering munitions, which devastated Armenian defences. Again in 2023, Azerbaijani forces scored another victory, forcing Armenia to relinquish Nagorno-Karabakh entirely. The enclave’s Armenian population fled, and Baku consolidated control.
Nagorno-Karabakh has always been the strategic and symbolic core of the conflict. The enclave is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan. However, the enclave was populated overwhelmingly by ethnic Armenians. For years, Armenia controlled it as if it were part of its own territory, connected by a narrow corridor.
For Armenia, the loss of the 2020 war was catastrophic. For Azerbaijan, it was a long-awaited reversal. And for other regional and global powers, for example, Turkey, Russia, Iran, and now the United States, it was an opportunity to reshape the map of influence in the South Caucasus.
Nakhchivan Enclave and the Geographical Conundrum
The exclave of Nakhchivan is another territorial conundrum that resides outside of Nagorno-Karabakh. Although it is part of Azerbaijan, the Armenian territory separates Nakhchivan from it. With a population of 460,000 and an area of roughly 5,000 square kilometres, Nakhchivan is not part of mainland Azerbaijan but rather borders Iran and Turkey. Baku has two options for getting there: either travel via Armenia, which isn’t feasible during a war, or take detours via Iran and Turkey.
Due to its problematic topography, Azerbaijan and Turkey are very interested in the notion of establishing a corridor across the southern Syunik province of Armenia. Although it would only be 43 km long, the Zangezur Corridor would house fibre-optic cables, pipelines, railroads, and highways.
Why the Corridor Matters
The Zangezur Corridor is intended to be much more than just a short stretch of land. Built to support oil and gas pipelines, highways, railroads, and even fibre-optic cables, it is a revolutionary route of connectivity with ramifications that extend throughout the South Caucasus and beyond. The corridor signifies the consolidation of Azerbaijan’s post-war power and ends decades of awkward reliance on Iranian channels by ensuring direct geographical continuity with its exclave of Nakhchivan. The project has even more strategic significance for Turkey because it removes the need for the 344-kilometre detour across Georgia’s mountain terrain and provides a quicker, direct route to its Turkic ally, Azerbaijan.
However, the corridor represents a financial burden as well as an opportunity for Armenia. On the one hand, it offers the prospect of economic gain and stability following years of devastating conflict. On the other hand, it symbolises the loss of sovereignty over one of its most important geographical routes, a compromise brought about by diplomatic isolation and military defeat. Iran, meanwhile, sees the initiative as a danger. Tehran faces the unpleasant possibility of an American-controlled presence on its northwest border in addition to losing its strategic position as the vital transportation gateway between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. Lastly, the corridor is a degrading representation of Russia’s downfall. The war in Ukraine made Russia so preoccupied that Moscow has failed to defend its Armenian ally and now finds its traditional role as the region’s power broker is openly challenged by Washington.
Trump’s Rent-Seeking Diplomacy
Trump’s strategy clearly links peace to profit. In contrast to traditional diplomacy, which seeks peace for its own sake or to build relationships. This has been nicknamed “rent-seeking peacemaking” by many observers. The Zangezur Corridor would be leased to U.S. interests for 99 years under the proposed agreement, which is equivalent to a concession that would last for 100 years. Although it would be run by American contractors who would construct and run its infrastructure, it would be governed by Armenian law. Armenia would get a bigger share of the revenue, which would be divided.
The admiration enthusiastically branded the project named “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP).
The reason is similar to Trump’s previous actions in Ukraine, where he led American businesses into vital mineral areas close to the front lines. Trump’s team argued that the existence of American business interests would discourage Russian strikes. Stated differently, corporate investment served as a guarantee for security. Trump is attempting the same strategy in the Caucasus. He links local peace to U.S. economic interests by integrating American companies in the corridor, which, in his opinion, reduces the likelihood of violence.
Regional Reactions
The corridor has triggered sharply divergent reactions amongst regional States. For Iran, this development is outrageous. Tehran sees the corridor as an existential threat, both a strategic location and Iran’s ideological beliefs. Not only would Iran lose influence as a transit state, it would suddenly find itself bordering the U.S.-controlled territory.
Interestingly, for Turkey, it is a strategic and political triumph. Ankara, which already supplies arms and political backing to Azerbaijan, views the corridor as a crowning achievement. It strengthens Turkey’s “Pan-Turkic” vision of linking Turkic peoples from Anatolia to Central Asia.
However, for Russia, it’s a big loss. Historically, Moscow saw Armenia and Azerbaijan as part of its strategic backyard. As the Soviet Union’s successor, Russia once guaranteed Armenia’s security. But in 2020 and 2023, it failed to defend its ally, distracted by Ukraine. Now, U.S. involvement cuts even deeper into Russia’s sphere of influence.
Armenia is defeated militarily, outmatched diplomatically, and isolated strategically. Armenia only hopes that conceding the corridor will at least bring peace and economic benefits. For Azerbaijan, it’s a big win. Flush with battlefield successes and backed by Turkey, Baku sees the corridor as the consolidation of its regional dominance.
Historical Echoes: Empires and Corridors
The Zangezur Corridor is more than just a strip of rail and road corridor. It carries the weight of centuries of imperial rivalry. Historically, the South Caucasus has always been the convergence point of empires. The Tsarist dominion of Russia to the north. The Ottoman Empire to the south. The Persian power to the east. Here, each of these empires fought for supremacy, leaving ethnic groups dispersed, enclaves stranded, and the border jagged.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent republics. However, Russia continued to view the region as its strategic backyard. Turkey looked to reclaim influence through shared Turkic identity. Iran is always insecure about separatism among its own Azeri minority in East Azerbaijan province.
Now, with fading dominance and the weakening of Iran in recent events, the United States sees the opportunity, for the first time in history, to carve out a physical presence in the heart of Eurasia. Interestingly, if the Zangezur Corridor proceeds under American management, Iran will, in effect, find itself sharing a border with its arch-rival, the United States.
Trump’s Calculations
The Zangezur Corridor is a very personal initiative for Donald Trump that blends international diplomacy with his own brand and business-driven approach, making it more than merely a geopolitical development. The initiative ensures that peace is not just a matter of politics but also of profit. The initiative will create lucrative business opportunities for his network of colleagues. It also gives Washington a fresh foothold in the strategic centre of Eurasia by establishing a real American presence in an area where the US has traditionally had little direct influence.
More importantly, Trump views the corridor as a stage for self-presentation beyond the economic and strategic dimensions. By positioning himself as the indispensable peacemaker, he sets up a sharp contrast with President Biden’s foreign policy approach, which he often criticises as reactive and unfocused. Most importantly, however, the project reinforces his long-cherished ambition to win the Nobel Peace Prize. For Trump, the Nobel has been a fixation ever since Barack Obama received it in 2009. Every ceasefire signed, every corridor opened, becomes, in his telling, he believes, he deserves the recognition once bestowed on his predecessors. His claims as mediator in the India-Pak conflict, Iran-Israel war, in the Armenia-Azerbaijan issue or in recent times his efforts towards Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations are a clear and strategic move towards his goal.
Conclusion
The Armenia–Azerbaijan ceasefire may look like a small event in geopolitics, or a local deal between two neighbours, but the 443-kilometre Zangezur Corridor reveals much more; it deepens the decline of Russian influence in its backyard. It shows the rise of Turkey and Azerbaijan’s cooperation, which provoked the anxieties of Iran, and lastly, the insertion of the United States into a region where it has never had a foothold.
For Armenia, the corridor may bring peace and profit. However, for Azerbaijan and Turkey, it is a strategic victory. For Iran and Russia, it is a bitter loss. And for Trump, it is the latest example of his unique brand of diplomacy, one in which peace is inseparable from profit, and every deal is also a campaign for recognition.
Whether this leads to true stability in the South Caucasus remains uncertain. But one thing is clear, for Trump, every corridor is a road to Oslo and to the Nobel podium he has long dreamed of.
Biswarup Baidya is a PhD Research Scholar in the Department of International Relations at Jadavpur University. He has previously served as a Research Intern at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA).
Pritam Sarbabidya 
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