- The stalemate from 2014 has evaporated to the threat of a full-blown invasion after Russia amassed troops in the Russia- Ukraine border.
- The US is taking a strong stance against Russia in the issue of Ukraine after a string of foreign policy failures.
- The EU doesn’t have a united stand against Russia because Germany prefers not to antagonize Russia because of the Nord Stream pipeline.
- A military conflict between Russia and Ukraine can also negatively impact India due to possible sanctions on Russia by the West.
Ukraine, once a part of the mighty Soviet Union, got independent in 1991. After Independence, Ukraine has been trying to align with the West like the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). But the internal tussle between the Ukrainian speaking majority to have close ties with the EU and Russia speaking minority to have close ties with Russia has caused instability in the foreign policy of Ukraine. The annexation of Crimea by Russia made Ukraine into a battleground between the West and Russia. President Putin has always seen Ukraine as a greater part of Russia and the majority Ukrainian speaking population see themselves as a part of Europe. The conflict flared up after Russia started arming pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian people ousted pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych.
The stalemate from 2014 has evaporated to the threat of a full-blown invasion after Russia amassed troops in the Russia- Ukraine border. Diplomatic efforts are underway, but the efforts seem to be a deadlock. The Russian foreign ministry has issued demands to the west to end the military confrontation with Ukraine, one of the demands being NATO denying membership to Ukraine. Russia views Ukraine as a crucial buffer to NATO and acceptance of Ukraine to NATO puts western troops in Russia’s backyard. Russia’s relations with Ukraine are crucial in terms of history, trade, energy, and a part of President Putin’s Great Russian power. Ukrainian Membership in NATO will threaten Russia’s interest in the region. Russia has also deployed troops to Belarus, which shares a border with Ukraine and can easily target Kyiv.
The Russian foreign ministry has issued demands to the west to end the military confrontation with Ukraine, one of the demands being NATO denying membership to Ukraine.
The US is taking a strong stance against Russia in the issue of Ukraine after a string of foreign policy failures, from the botched exit from Afghanistan, AUKUS fiasco with France, failure to reach a nuclear deal with Iran, trouble with South America, so the US is not looking for another disaster. NATO is also losing its relevance in the current Global order and vying to take back its position using Ukraine. The EU doesn’t have a united stand against Russia because Germany prefers not to antagonize Russia because of the Nord Stream pipeline. Some EU countries suggest a diplomatic way while some are helping Ukraine with weapons. French President Emmanuel Macron is suggesting the EU conduct a separate dialogue with Russia without the involvement of NATO.
This conflict presents opportunities for Russia to annex the separatist-controlled strongholds in Ukraine. Russia has already launched an unconventional means to dissuade Ukraine from joining NATO-like misinformation, cyberattacks etc. Russia is using this conflict with Ukraine as a means of dissuading the west to drop sanctions against Russia. The talks in Geneve between the ministers didn’t wield a solution of truce or resolution. The seriousness of the conflict can be seen from countries pulling their diplomats out of Kyiv in the fear of a conflict. The US and UK have already asked the diplomats to leave Kyiv and NATO are lining up troops in Eastern Europe. The Indian embassy has asked Indian citizens and students living in Ukraine to register themselves. China and Canada are pulling families of diplomats out of Ukraine.
The chance of Russia invading Ukraine is low because the human and economic casualties of a military confrontation can be huge for Russia.
A military conflict between Russia and Ukraine can also negatively impact India. If there is a conflict, Russia may be sanctioned. So, any deal with Russia comes with a risk of India being sanctioned since India imports crude from Russia and the prices of oil may rise. A US response to the conflict can push Russia closer to China and India-China bilateral relations are sour amidst the border standoff. India should also think about the impact on defence supplies from Russia. The US would want India to take a stronger position on Russia and India will not be able to balance relations with the US as well as Russia. The Relationship with the US will be crucial to deter Chinese aggression in the region. This issue can cause trouble for New Delhi in terms of diplomacy and foreign policy and India might have to make some tough decisions.
The chance of Russia invading Ukraine is low because the human and economic casualties of a military confrontation can be huge for Russia. US president Joe Biden has warned of personal sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine. Since Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the US and NATO allies have no legal obligation to go to war with Russia if they invade Ukraine but the US had recognised that they do have a moral obligation to respond. But the west is divided on the issue of response to the standoff. The conflict is at risk of further deterioration if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved. Moscow and the west must reach a compromise because a conflict is not good for any party involved and war is never the solution to anything. Looking from a Humanitarian perspective, it is paramount to resolve this diplomatically.
(Author Information: Lalitha. S is a Research Student from the Department of Political science, St. Joseph’s College (Autonomous), Bangalore, India. Dr. Karamala Areesh Kumar, teaches International Relations and World Politics at the Post Graduate Centre, Department of Political Science, St. Joseph’s College (Autonomous), Bangalore, India)
Aayush Pal 
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