Unravelling Dynamics: Assessing the Progression of ‘India Out’ Campaign in Maldives

• Indicating a foreign policy shift, neglecting India, the Muizzu administration is reaching out to Türkiye and China, who are not favourable to India’s security concerns.
• While the Maldivian vice-president attended the China-sponsored IORFDC summit, Maldives skipped the Colombo Security Dialogue that involves India, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Mauritius.
• President Muizzu who ran the campaign of ‘India out’ during the presidential polls and gave priority to China, is expected to work in that direction.

After Mohamed Muizzu became president of Maldives, notable foreign policy decisions have been made, signalling a significant change in approach towards India. However, one should not be surprised by the changing course of action of Males as it was evident from the presidential election campaign days. 

From a strategic point of view, Maldives’ location is very important which is just 70 nautical miles away from the Indian coast. Therefore, geopolitical competition between India and China for increasing influence can be seen there. Views among the country’s political leaders on the best course of action differ. If we look at the previous two governments in the Maldives one was pro-China whereas the other was pro-India. 

Abdulla Yameen’s (2013-18) policy was inclined towards China and under his government, many Chinese-funded projects were developed which is criticised as the ‘debt to equity’ policy of China. Later Yameen also supported the ‘India out’ campaign. Whereas, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih (2018-23) reversed the approach and followed the traditional ‘India first’ policy. But the current president Muizzu who ran the ‘India out’ campaign in his presidential electoral campaigns is changing its approach away from India. 

Exiting From Hydrographic Survey Agreement 

Recently, Abdul Khaleel, undersecretary for public policy at Maldives’ president’s office, said that the Muizzu administration has decided that Male will not renew an agreement with India on a hydrographic survey of the island nation’s water. This agreement was signed in 2019 when PM Modi visited Maldives at the invitation of then-president Mohamed Solih. Through the terms of this agreement, India was able to conduct hydrographic surveys in the Maldives’ territorial seas, charting underwater surfaces and researching reefs, lagoons, coastlines, and other geographical characteristics. Under this agreement, the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) and the Indian Navy conducted three surveys- February and March 2021, April and May 2022 and January and February 2023. 

This agreement was signed for five years having an expiry date of 07 June 2024. It has a condition that if any party wants to exit from the agreement, then the first party is required to inform the second party six months before the expiry date otherwise it will be considered as renewed for the next five years. Citing the issue of national security, protection of sensitive information and improving the Maldivian military’s capacity, Maldives informed the Indian side of exiting from the agreement.

Foreign Visits

Foreign visits especially the first foreign visit of a leader of a state are considered as a gesture that shows how much importance a host country will get in the foreign policy of that concerned state. In 2014 when PM Modi was elected as Prime Minister of India his first foreign visit was to Bhutan and in the second term his first foreign visit was to the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Both times he has chosen a neighbouring country which signifies how important neighbours are for New Delhi. To justify this, India has a ‘neighbourhood first’ policy.

For Maldives, traditionally first foreign visit of the president was used to be India but this time this tradition was not followed. However, it is to be noted that, it is not clear whether he was invited by New Delhi or not.  President Muizzu’s first foreign visit was to Türkiye and he decided to establish a Maldivian embassy in Ankara. During this visit, the two nations signed a trade and economic cooperation agreement. Establishing an embassy and formalising this agreement will help in improving trade between them and getting investments in Maldives from Türkiye.

Maldivian vice-president Hussain Mohamed Latheef’s China visit is also an issue to ponder upon. Latheef visited China to attend the China-sponsored China-Indian Ocean Region Forum on Development Cooperation (IORFDC). Whereas, Maldives skipped the Colombo Security Dialogue that involves India, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Mauritius. National Security Advisors (NSA) of India, Sri Lanka and Mauritius were present but no representatives from Maldives attended. Last year under Maldives under Solih’s government did not attend IORFDC. 

Indicating a foreign policy shift, neglecting India, the Muizzu administration is reaching out to Türkiye and China, who are not favourable to India’s security concerns.

First Modi-Muizzu meet

PM Modi and President Muizzu met for the first time in Dubai on the sideline of COP28. They both agreed to form a core group to deepen the partnership between these two countries. This core group will focus on economic relations, development cooperation and people-to-people ties. 

It is said that they both also discussed about the removal of 77 Indian military personnel deployed in Maldives. These 77 Indian military personnel manage two Dhruv HAL helicopters and one Dornier 228 maritime patrol aircraft that were gifted by India to Maldives to help Maldives in search and rescue missions, and medical evacuations. These helicopters were used by Maldivian forces also for maritime surveillance and patrolling purposes. However, the Muizzu administration cited this as a sovereignty issue and requested their removal. 

Conclusion

In the Maldivian presidential election, issues related to the foreign policy of Maldives were raised countless times which had an impact on voting behaviour and electing the candidate. President Muizzu who ran the campaign of ‘India out’ to ouster Indian military personnel from Maldives and give priority to China, is expected to work in that direction. In a geopolitical game, no one is a permanent friend or permanent foe. So, one should not be surprised but New Delhi needs to prepare for possible future scenarios.

_{(Ashish Keserwani is a research scholar pursuing a PhD from Amity University Noida)}

Ashish Keserwani