Analysing Vladimir Putin’s visit to India

• The Annual Summit meeting between the Prime Minister of India and the President of the Russian Federation is the highest since he began his reign.
• There were a total of 28 agreements signed which included four important military-related pacts, including the mega ₹5,100-crore deal with Russia to jointly manufacture AK-203 assault rifles
• However all is not well in the “all-weather” partnership as the two countries will also have to overcome serious challenges. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chose to speak openly when India joined the Quad.
• In recent years ties between Russia and Pakistan have warmed as a countermeasure to warming ties between India and the United States.
• New Delhi and Moscow are adapting to the changing dynamic in their respective relations with Washington and Beijing. This new geopolitical dynamic is vastly different from the great power politics that brought India close to Russia in the past.

India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar at the Raisina Dialogue held recently had said “Indian foreign policy today seeks to achieve: a focus on key challenges, a broad engagement with many parties, and managing, if not leveraging global contradictions. Advancing our interests in a multipolar world and contributing to global good is what it is all about.” 

The fall of a civilian government in Afghanistan, Taliban, an ISI and Pakistan Army stooge, coming to power, the reemergence of  ISIS in Nangarh Province, free movement for terrorists, recruitment, training and promotion of cross border terror from Pakistan to Afghanistan, Jihadi threat to Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) former periphery of Russia, terrorism, narcotics, Covid-19 health crisis and medicines, climate change, ransomware, China debt trap diplomacy from Tajikistan, land grabbing in Sri Lanka, Piracy in Indian Ocean Region, freedom of navigation, rules-based order,  civil nuclear energy, anti-terrorism co-operation and space has brought India and Russia closer in the Multi-Polar World where relations are historical, cultural, economic, military, strategic and diplomatic.

In 1957, 1962, and 1971, the Soviet Union was the only country to veto resolutions seeking U.N. intervention over Kashmir; in the summer of 2019, when India revoked Kashmir’s special status Russia was the first to describe it as an internal matter. In 2017, approximately 68% of the Indian Military’s hardware import came from Russia, making Russia the chief supplier of defence equipment. Russia was a reliable partner for New Delhi when no one else was. From UN Reforms to the Multilateral Organisations, Russia and India shared common positions and agreed to further strengthen cooperation at multilateral fora including at the UN Security Council.

The Annual Summit meeting between the Prime Minister of India and the President of the Russian Federation is the highest since he began his reign. President Vladimir Putin has visited India nine times which clearly shows the bond of relationship. He called India a great power and a time-tested friend. PM Narendra Modi said that Putin’s visit to India is a reflection of his commitments towards ties with New Delhi. Following the summit, a Joint Statement Russia  India: Partnership for Peace, Progress and Prosperity was adopted. 

In 2017, approximately 68% of the Indian Military’s hardware import came from Russia, making Russia the chief supplier of defence equipment.

There were a total of 28 agreements signed which included four important military-related pacts. They include an intergovernmental agreement on technology protection due to cooperation in space research and the use of outer space for peaceful purposes, and on building and operating launch vehicles and ground-based space infrastructure; an intergovernmental agreement on the Military-Technical Cooperation Programme for 2021–2031; as well as a protocol amending the intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in manufacturing Kalashnikov series small arms of February 18, 2019. 

The Central Bank of Russia and the Reserve Bank of India signed a cooperation agreement to fight cyber-attacks. Also, relevant agencies signed a number of agreements in the sphere of education and memoranda of cooperation on intellectual property and on geological exploration and prospecting. The documents signed included a roadmap for cooperation in science, technology and innovation; a programme of cultural exchanges for 2021–2024; a protocol on the organisation of culture festivals between the Russian Federation and the Republic of India in 2022–2023; as well as documents amending the intergovernmental agreement on merchant shipping of December 23, 1994, and concerning Russian oil supplies in 2022. 

The progress of ‘Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership’ between both countries despite the challenges posed by the Covid pandemic was welcomed by both the leaders. They Further welcomed the holding of the first meeting of the 2+2 Dialogue of Foreign and Defence Ministers and the meeting of the Inter-Governmental Commission on Military & Military-Technical Cooperation.

The role of connectivity through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the proposed Chennai Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor figured in the discussions. However, in recent years a sixth economic component has grown in importance, with both countries setting a target of reaching US$30 billion in bilateral trade by 2025 from about US$9.4 billion in the year 2017. In order to meet this goal, both countries are looking to develop a free trade agreement.  The two leaders looked forward to greater inter-regional cooperation between various regions of Russia, in particular with the Russian Far-East, with the States of India. India’s decision to give a $1bn line of credit to businesses to invest in Russia’s Far East region will also help boost trade between the countries. 

“Rosoboronexport with the Sprut-SDM1 light amphibious tank intends to take part in the Indian tender for the supplies of light tanks. As part of the tender, Russia will offer to transfer technology and, quite possibly, to localise the production of individual units and assemblies,” Rosoboronexport CEO Alexander Mikheev told. The delivery of the first squadron of S-400 air defence systems part of a $5.4-billion contract with Russia for five systems is successful. A key pact that inked is the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement (RELOS), which will allow militaries of the two nations to access logistics and support facilities.

The Most notable factor is that during the Russia President’s visit, India concluded a ₹5,100-crore deal with Russia to jointly manufacture AK-203 assault rifles at a facility in Uttar Pradesh’s Amethi.

The Most notable factor is that during the Russia President’s visit, India concluded a ₹5,100-crore deal with Russia to jointly manufacture AK-203 assault rifles at a facility in Uttar Pradesh’s Amethi. The joint venture between Kalashnikov and a new weapons manufacturing division carved out of the erstwhile Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) seeks to provide a push to the government’s Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan. The project envisages the production of up to 700,000 AK-203 assault rifles. 

With regards to energy, “We have expressed interest in further investments in the oil and gas sector, as well as in the area of petrochemicals” informed Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla. Production of Sputnik vaccine showed cooperation is not only limited to defence and security but also health. India Russia National Security Advisers are coordinating on a bigger level now than before. Russia’s NSA Chief  Nikolay Patrushev came to Delhi and met National Security Advisor Ajit Doval on numerous contentious issues.  Patrushev hails from St Petersburg, was part of the Soviet spy agency KGB, which became the FSB when the Soviet Union disintegrated.

Challenges facing the India-Russia ties

However all is not well in the “all-weather” partnership as the two countries will also have to overcome serious challenges. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chose to speak openly when India joined the Quad. India convinced Russia that Quad was a non-military alliance and wasn’t aimed at a specific country. Russia has been compelled to forge closer ties with China to secure its economic and geopolitical interests in Asia as the US-led West also seeks to dominate the region. India and Russia are already partners in several multinational forums like BRICS (also involving Brazil, China, South Africa), the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (also involving China, Pakistan and Central Asian countries) and the RIC (Russia, India and China).

Washington has put several Russian firms under sanctions. The Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (Caatsa) was introduced in 2017 to target Russia, Iran and North Korea with economic and political sanctions. It also prohibits any country from signing defence deals with these nations. In recent years ties between Russia and Pakistan have warmed as a countermeasure to warming ties between India and the United States, the two countries carried out their first-ever joint military drills in 2016 despite Indian requests to postpone due to the Uri attack. Pakistan and Russia signed an agreement for the Pakistan Stream Gas pipeline from Karachi to Kasur. Pakistan has also granted Russia access to a warm water port in the Arabian sea (Gwadar Port). The Russia-Pakistan Joint Military Consultative Committee (JMCC)  JMCC was set up in 2018 as the top bilateral forum on defence cooperation. 

PM Modi’s statement to President Putin “You are visiting India despite all the pandemic difficulties and this shows your love of India”, defines the relations between the two countries.

PM Modi’s statement to President Putin “You are visiting India despite all the pandemic difficulties and this shows your love of India”, defines the relations between the two countries. 2021 is an important year for bilateral relations for various reasons. This year we celebrate the 50th anniversary of the 1971 Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation between India and the Soviet Union and two decades of strategic partnership. Our countries not only cooperate with each other but also show special care for each other’s sensitive issues. This is indeed a unique, trust-based model of interstate friendship.  India’s relation with Russia is strong and solid. In International Politics there is no Friend or no enemy, it is only the National Interest. 

However in a multipolar world, one cannot take a uniform stand and ally with any one nation. Hence it is evident that PM Modi is not willing simply to abandon the longstanding partnership with Russia, despite other nations’ views. But he also isn’t ready to let Russia have a veto over India’s relations with the United States.  India knows Russia’s growing strategic partnership with China, Turkey and Pakistan but the relations India-Russia are deep with trust which will not bulge the present. New Delhi and Moscow are adapting to the changing dynamic in their respective relations with Washington and Beijing.

This new geopolitical dynamic is vastly different from the great power politics that brought India close to Russia in the past. For now India and Russia are moving forward for develop and manufacture high-technology military products, including in India, Jointly fight Terror, contain Jihad expansions and organized Crime, tackle together green energy, work closely in high technology, space,  check military authoritarian rules in Asia and support international rules based order in the world.

(The views and opinions expressed are author’s own)