- Marine Le Pen’s party was considered a favorite to dethrone President Macron in 2027 and this development also comes when no party in the French Parliament has a clear majority.
- President Macron’s approval ratings have degraded, and he has not been able to solve major challenges, such as the immigration issue, which has led to huge protests in Paris.
- European liberal authorities increasingly sideline opposition figures by implicating them in allegations, as seen recently in Romania and France.
- Targeting Le Pen may become a blessing in disguise for nationalist factions as it may increase the sympathy of the French people towards the nationalist party.
An important political development has taken place in Paris, where the Paris court has handed Marine Le Pen a four-year prison sentence with two years suspended, to be served under house arrest, and a 100,000-euro fine. Also, her party, National Rally, was ordered to pay 2 million euros in fines for the 4.1 million euros that it was accused of embezzling.
This is one of the important developments in European politics because Marine Le Pen’s party was considered a favorite to dethrone President Macron in 2027. This development also comes at a time when no party in the French Parliament has a clear majority. As soon as the decision came, Marine Le Pen sought to appeal the decision to the higher judicial authority inside Paris. She has called this development completely political.
It is also important to note that this development comes after the Romanian saga, where candidate Georgescu was barred from running in the election as the authorities blamed him for being a Kremlin associate. Even if the charges against Marine Le Pen turn out to be true, it is the timing at which the charges against her have been introduced that raises questions. This has now become a common trend seen across European liberal circles; whenever a liberal leader and its institutions are challenged by major opposition figures, the liberal authorities tend to sideline the challenge by simply involving the candidates in some allegations. Romania and France have been the latest examples of this.
At present, President Emmanuel Macron has been suffering from severe degradation in public approval ratings. He has not been able to solve major challenges, such as the immigration issue, which has led to huge protests in Paris. The farmers are also against President Macron’s decision to adopt the European Union clause of replacing chemical fertilizers with natural manure. Along with that, there is a security challenge in Paris. More importantly, Europe has been at war, and President Emmanuel Macron has been a major participant in the coalition that seeks to help Ukraine.
Amid all this, Marine Le Pen was considered a favorite to challenge President Macron in 2027. Marine Le Pen consecutively been the opposition to President Macron in the last two elections. Although President Macron has been able to counter Marine Le Pen’s challenge in the past, this time, the situation inside Europe and, particularly for President Macron, is very different. Marine Le Pen had an edge going against President Macron.
However, this development also seems to be a blessing in disguise for nationalist factions inside France. This case may increase the sympathy of the French people towards the nationalist party, leading to voter consolidation against President Macron. Furthermore, this is also a blessing in disguise for the nationalist party itself because there has been an internal demand for a change in leadership. The far-right party has not been able to win anything significant under Marine Le Pen’s leadership, and there has been a demand for new leadership to revitalize the party.
Now, if the court’s decision stands, Marine Le Pen may not be able to contest for any public office in the next five years. However, the nationalist party will continue to participate in elections. In that case, a new candidate from the nationalist party may bring the rejuvenation that it needs, which can not only solve the party’s leadership problem but also align it with the current socio-political developments in France.
References:
- https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-le-pen-verdict-a-trump-moment-for-europes-right-wing-13876166.html
- https://apnews.com/article/marine-le-pen-france-far-right-trial-verdict-f3da0614e9a6fc24c87eb33d5b873409
Aayush Pal is a freelance writer on contemporary geopolitical developments. The views expressed in his work are entirely his own.
Pranav S 
Abhishek Kumar