- Modi’s visit to Ukraine is expected to focus on peace proposals and will most likely play a pivotal role in mediating an end to the hostilities in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
- India’s position is driven by its desire to avoid escalating tensions that could impact its security and economic interests, particularly in energy supplies from Russia and its trade relations with Europe.
- Ukraine’s stability is crucial for global energy markets and food supplies, making it a focal point of international attention and India’s long-term goals in economic and foreign policy goals in Central Asia and Europe.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Ukraine on August 23, 2024, where he will meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is significant for several reasons. This will be his first visit to Ukraine since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine started in 2022 and the timing of the visit is also crucial as Modi will be there on 24 August which happens to be their national day[1].
The visit comes shortly after his recent trip to Russia, where he met President Vladimir Putin. This diplomatic balancing act is crucial, given India’s strategic interests and its relationships with both Russia and the West.
During Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Russia in July 2024, several key deals and agreements were made, highlighting the strategic partnership between India and Russia including, ‘Nuclear Power Cooperation’ that will include joint projects in third countries and the development of new nuclear reactors in India. Cooperation in ‘Defense and Shipbuilding’, including the joint production of military equipment and the construction of warships. Trade and Payments caused by international sanctions on Russia, focusing on alternative payment mechanisms to facilitate trade between the two nations, amid global geopolitical tensions.
However, Modi’s visit to the Ukraine is expected to focus on peace proposals echoing his famous words, “This is not the era of war.” He will most likely play a pivotal role in attempting to mediate the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Modi’s diplomatic efforts will be closely watched globally, especially as the war reaches a critical juncture where both sides seem entrenched yet unable to secure a decisive victory.
Maintaining India’s Strategic Autonomy
For India, this visit is important not only for its potential impact on the Russia-Ukraine conflict but also for maintaining its image as a significant global player capable of bridging divides and at the same time maintaining its independent foreign policy of safeguarding our national interest. India’s relationship with Russia, Ukraine, and Central Asia amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is complex and has significant implications for regional security.
That is why to assuage Zelenskyy, Modi is entering Ukraine via Poland, a key backer of Ukraine on a one-day state visit on 21 August and if successful, Modi’s visit could enhance India’s standing in international diplomacy. Zelenskyy who is controlled by the US must not think that Modi is an emissary of Putin and Modi travelling to Poland conveys this message. Further, Poland sees India as a rising power. I February 2024, Polish Secretary of State at the Foreign Affairs Ministry Wladyslaw T Bartoszewski said[2], that India is a “superpower” and should play a role that fits a superpower on the world scale and that India should play a more proactive role in world affairs. Poland knows India is the only country that has the strength to talk straight with Russia and end the war.
If Modi achieves peace without the involvement of the US and Europe, it will be India’s greatest foreign policy success. For Modi, this visit could end up as a dud or a huge personal victory cementing his name as a global statesman.
Modi is known for his timing and as there is political uncertainty for the next few months in the United States until a new president is elected, Modi could convince Zelenskyy that a regime change in Washington could spell doom for him. At present no one knows who will end up in the Oval Office come November.
If India is responsible for ending the Russia and Ukraine war, without the US working the table, it will be a significant achievement for India and its standing with the Global South. It will send a signal that there is another country that has the power to stabilize complex geopolitical situations and this trip could be the key to securing a permanent Security Council seat in the United Nations.
India’s Position in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
India has maintained a neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, balancing its long-standing ties with Russia and its growing relationships with Western nations. This neutrality is reflected in India’s calls for dialogue and diplomacy, rather than taking sides in the conflict. India’s strategic partnership with Russia, especially in defence and energy, remains crucial, but the ongoing war has put pressure on India to navigate this relationship carefully without alienating Western allies.
Prime Minister Modi during his visit to Russia[3], suggested some peace proposals which is not yet been made public. Perhaps during his dialogue with President Zelenskyy, the peace proposal might get unveiled. Modi has not held back when it came to telling both Russia and Ukraine, the importance of peace and he must have offered diplomatic solutions.
India’s position is driven by its desire to avoid escalating tensions that could impact its security and economic interests, particularly in energy supplies from Russia and its trade relations with Europe.
Impact on Central Asia
Central Asia is a region of significant strategic interest for India due to its proximity and potential for energy and trade connectivity. The conflict in Ukraine has complicated the security dynamics in Central Asia. Russia has historically been a dominant power in the region, but its focus on Ukraine and its strained relations with the West have opened up opportunities for other powers, including China and Turkey, to increase their influence.
India, through its involvement in various regional initiatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), seeks to enhance its presence in Central Asia. However, the instability caused by the Russia-Ukraine war poses challenges for regional security and India wants to extend the peace dividend as its growth projections are more than positive.
Security Concerns
The conflict has raised concerns about regional security in Central Asia, especially with the potential for spillover effects from Ukraine and the influence of external powers. India’s approach is to engage diplomatically while bolstering its economic and security ties with Central Asian countries. Ensuring stability in Central Asia is crucial for India’s broader security objectives, including countering terrorism and securing its interests in Afghanistan the growing instability in Pakistan and the recent development in Bangladesh.
India’s interactions with Russia and Ukraine are driven by the fact that there is a delicate balancing act that seeks to maintain strategic partnerships, promote regional security, protect its national interests amid a complex and evolving geopolitical landscape and curb the growing inflation.
Conclusion
Ukraine is one of the world’s largest producers of grain, particularly wheat, corn, and sunflower oil, which makes it a crucial player in global food security. The country is often referred to as the “breadbasket of Europe.” At the same time, Ukraine is a key transit country for Russian natural gas supplies to Europe. Disruptions in Ukraine can have significant impacts on energy supplies and prices across the continent.
Though India’s growth rate will remain strong, the global economic outlook for 2024[4] is filled with uncertainty, with potential recession and persistent inflationary pressures. Also, the global economy faces risks from increased geopolitical fragmentation, which could further destabilize trade and economic relations. This fragmentation might lead to a more divided global economy, potentially exacerbating volatility and slowing growth further, which is why Modi’s trip to Ukraine is so crucial.
For India, Ukraine is the keystone in the Eastern European region due to its strategic location, economic resources, and broader geopolitical implications. Its stability is crucial for global energy markets and food supplies, making it a focal point of international attention and India’s long-term goals in economic and foreign policy goals in Central Asia and Europe.
(The author is a freelance writer and has published articles on defence and strategic affairs and book reviews. He tweets @LaxmanShriram78. The opinion expressed is the author’s own)
References:
- [1] PM Modi expected to visit Ukraine in August | Latest News India – Hindustan Times
- [2] https://www.firstpost.com/world/india-is-a-superpower-should-play-role-in-world-affairs-says-poland-minister-lauds-progress-made-during-pm-modis-regime-13739617.html
- [3] Deliverables in Modi’s proposed Ukraine visit (newindianexpress.com)
- [4] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/01/economic-outlook-2024-recession-inflation/
Balaji is a freelance writer with an MA in History and Political science and has published articles on defence and strategic affairs and book reviews. He tweets @LaxmanShriram78. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Dhruv Ashok 
Aayush Pal
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