Saudi Vision 2030: A Paradigm Shift or a Temporary Experiment?

• Saudi Vision 2030, announced in April 2016 by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is a comprehensive reform strategy aimed at lowering Saudi Arabia’s reliance on oil and diversifying its economy.
• MBS has initiated considerable social reforms in Saudi Arabia to modernize the country and appeal to its young population, including lifting restrictions on women and liberalizing the entertainment sector.
• Saudi Arabia’s planned reforms pose major risks, potentially sparking opposition on multiple fronts among Islamic nations.
• Iran, the Taliban-led Afghanistan, Syria, Indonesia, Egypt, and Turkey must choose whether to embrace these changes or oppose them as a danger to their traditional values.

Introduction: Balancing Reform and Tradition in the Islamic World

Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), King Salman’s seventh son, is Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, noted for making bold decisions and employing brutal techniques. His father’s succession upon King Abdullah’s death allowed him to reorganize the country according to his ideas.

Saudi Vision 2030, announced in April 2016 by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman^[1], is a comprehensive reform strategy aimed at lowering Saudi Arabia’s reliance on oil and diversifying its economy. Recognizing the changing global energy market and the need for long-term stability, the plan prioritizes expansion in industries such as healthcare, education, infrastructure, and tourism. Beyond economics, it aims to modernize Saudi Arabia while conserving its religious and cultural heritage, establishing the Kingdom as a global leader.

Saudi Arabia’s transformation under MBS is based on three pillars: economic diversification, social reform, and cultural advancement. Economically, Vision 2030 seeks to reduce reliance on oil by promoting tourism, entertainment, and technology. Social reforms, such as eliminating the driving restriction for women in 2018^[2] and growing female employment, as well as improvements in education and healthcare, indicate a revolutionary shift. Recently, MBS announced a restriction on the use of Hadith, lowering dependence on lesser sources and restricting it to approximately 100 widely authenticated narrations^[3].

He supports rules based on the Quran and rejects rigorous devotion to any one particular scholar, including the founder of Wahhabism, Muḥammad ibn ʿAbd al-Wahhāb. This action aims to curb Saudi Arabia’s legal and religious system and combat extremism.

Saudi Arabia’s dominance over Mecca and Medina, which is directly related to its Wahhabi alliance, accounts for its prominence in the Muslim world, but this religious authority is challenged by MBS’s reforms.

One is poised to ask the question: Is it possible for a deeply Islamic nation to embrace modernization while preserving its religious identity? As the cradle of Islam, Saudi Arabia has always adhered to rigorous Wahhabi practices. MBS describes the proposal as a return to Islam’s moderate heritage, before the hardline revisions of 1979^[4].

MBS Reforms: Power, Progress, and Strategic Survival

With oil once dominating 90% of exports, MBS saw the model’s fragility amid price crashes and a global shift to renewables. Vision 2030 pushes diversification into tourism, tech, and entertainment, backed by projects like NEOM and the PIF. The 2019 Aramco IPO raised $29.4B^[5], fueling growth. By 2023, non-oil sectors hit 50% of real GDP ($453B, 4.4% growth), with tourism targeting 100M visitors by 2030.

MBS has initiated considerable social reforms in Saudi Arabia to modernize the country and appeal to its young population. Notably, he repealed the restrictions on women and relaxed male guardianship regulations, giving women more autonomy. These measures helped to boost women’s workforce participation from 17% in 2017 to more than 37% by 2023^[6]. The entertainment industry has also witnessed liberalization, with cinemas reopening after a 35-year prohibition and the holding of big music events like the MDLBEAST^[7] Soundstorm Festival. This annual event, which began in 2019, has grown to become the Middle East’s largest music festival, attracting international artists and a large audience. MBS characterizes these measures as a return to “moderate Islam,” to distance the country from its historical conservatism and improve its international image.

These initiatives have not only modernized Saudi Arabia but also strengthened MBS’ position. By limiting the effectiveness of the religious police and confining dissenting clerics, MBS weakened the conventional Wahhabi establishment, transferring authority directly to himself. The 2017 anti-corruption crackdown, which resulted in the detention of over 200 princes, ministers, and businessmen at Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton hotel, was a calculated effort to remove prospective rivals and assert supremacy. This operation resulted in the recovery of assets worth about $107 billion, reinforcing MBS’s influence over the kingdom’s political and economic realms^[8].

MBS intends to establish regional supremacy and worldwide influence through a multifaceted strategy. Saudi Arabia projects significant soft power by spending on sports ( hosting the FIFA World Cup) and collecting cultural artefacts such as the $450 million Salvator Mundi^[9] painting.

MBS’s reforms are not occurring in a vacuum—they are reshaping Saudi Arabia’s relationships with global and regional powers, including the U.S., the UAE, Qatar, and China.

Islamic Reforms and Jurisprudence: Navigating Theological Rigidity for Adaptive Change

Islamic jurisprudence, or fiqh, is frequently portrayed as a dynamic system capable of adjusting to new circumstances via procedures such as ijtihad^[10] (independent reasoning). Historically, this adaptability was evident throughout the Abbasid era, when scholars created multiple legal schools to suit various settings, and during the Ottoman Tanzimat reforms^[11], which combined Sharia with modern legal systems. But let’s cut through the hype: these are just outliers and not the norm.

Islamic theology remains strict, clinging to its founding texts and refusing any modification. Sita Ram Goel, a renowned Historian, author and staunch critic of Islam’s fundamentalism, strikes this point stating: “The Quran lays down a law which brooks no change…”^[12] Its injunctions are timeless, and its followers are obligated to uphold them”. Goel doesn’t mince words here.

He emphasises that the Quran’s assertion of divine perfection, which is eternal and unchangeable, puts people in a moral and legal bind. Unlike other religions that have evolved to modernity, Islam’s fundamental texts prioritize obedience over reinterpretation. As a result, despite changing circumstances, theology remains dogmatic.

Saudi Arabia itself is a great example, where traditional clerics have long opposed what they see as Western intrusions. When television was first introduced in the 1960s, there were concerns that it would erode Islamic values and corrupt morals^[13]. Religious leaders have lately criticized the 2018 decision to permit women to drive, viewing it as a violation of Islamic teachings on conventional gender roles.

Saudi Arabia’s Reforms: A Turning Point or a Rift in the Muslim World?

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 represents a significant departure from its conservative, oil-rich past. It proposes contemporary social innovations like women driving and reopened movie theatres, along with economic improvements in tourism, technology, and entertainment. This move is bold and unprecedented since it is the cradle of Islamic orthodoxy. Iran, the Taliban-led Afghanistan, Syria, Indonesia, Egypt, and Turkey are among the major players who must choose whether to embrace these changes or oppose them as a danger to their traditional values.

Iran, Saudi Arabia’s old foe, sees Vision 2030 with suspicion. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, it has positioned itself as the protector of Shia Islam, challenging the Saudi Sunni government. A truce reached by China in 2023 helped to alleviate tensions, but deep enmity still exists^[14]. Iran’s leadership, founded on Wilayat al-Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist), opposes secularism. It regards Saudi reforms—cinemas, concerts, and looser clothing codes—as both anti-Islamic and ideological threats. Iranian media swiftly attacked MBS’ 2017 appeal for “moderate Islam,” labelling it as a betrayal of Islamic beliefs^[15]. Iran may use Saudi reforms to foment conflict in Yemen and Syria, exacerbating the Sunni-Shia divide^[16]. Many Muslims may view Saudi Arabia as abandoning Islam, making widespread support improbable.

MBS characterizes these measures as a return to "moderate Islam," to distance the country from its historical conservatism and improve its international image.

Since taking power in 2021, the Taliban have maintained Afghanistan as a haven of extreme Islamism, maintaining harsh Sharia law. Once supported by Saudi Arabia, their philosophy now clashes with Vision 2030’s changes, signalling a sharp shift. Saudi reforms will be denounced by the Taliban as treacherous and heretical. Rejection will increase and extremists may target Saudi interests if there are no connections to defuse the situation. There will inevitably be conflict.

Indonesia, home to nearly 230 million Muslims, balances Islam and pluralism. Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the country’s largest Islamic organization, promotes “humanitarian Islam,” which differs from Saudi Arabia’s traditional Wahhabism^[17]. This is on par with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, yet organizations such as Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia reject cultural reforms. Thus, while support of Vision 2030 is generally positive, it is moderated by domestic radical forces.

Since 2013, Saudi Arabia has provided significant financial help to Egypt, including $8 billion in deposits and continued petroleum product shipments via a $23.5 billion loan over five years^[18]. Al-Azhar, Egypt’s leading Sunni institution, has cautiously supported Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s anti-extremism efforts. Although they may be envious of Saudi improvements, Egyptians are nonetheless dubious. Though it won’t entirely follow its course, Egypt will most probably embrace Vision 2030.

The UAE's economic rise poses a challenge to Saudi leadership in tourism, logistics, and finance, while Qatar's independent foreign policy remains a source of contention due to its relations with Iran and Turkey.

Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey aims to confront Saudi religious domination and resurrect its Ottoman heritage. This is threatened by Vision 2030, which conflicts with political Islam in Turkey. However, tensions are reduced by close economic connections ($5 billion in commerce in 2023)^[19]. Diplomacy continues even as Erdoğan privately criticizes Saudi changes. Turkey’s cautious approach is influenced by pragmatism and rivalry.

The Muslim world’s reaction to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reforms is diverse and complex. The success of Vision 2030 depends on MBS portraying it as necessary for economic survival rather than a transformation in Islamic identity, because the Muslim world is varied and deeply established, making majority acceptance improbable. Saudi Arabia’s planned reforms pose major risks, potentially sparking opposition on multiple fronts among the Islamic Nations.

Can Saudi Arabia Maintain Its Religious Authority While Reforming?

Saudi Arabia’s dominance over Mecca and Medina, which is directly related to its Wahhabi alliance, accounts for its prominence in the Muslim world. This religious authority is challenged by MBS’s reforms, which include boosting secular entertainment, reducing religious institutions, and loosening social constraints. A move toward state-run Islam is indicated by the waning of Wahhabi preachers and the religious police. Traditionalists may oppose these developments, causing internal conflicts over the kingdom’s changing character, even while many young Saudis support them.

The success of Vision 2030 depends on MBS portraying it as necessary for economic survival rather than a transformation in Islamic identity, because the Muslim world is varied and deeply established, making majority acceptance improbable.

Saudi Arabia has long faced criticism for promoting the Wahhabi worldview, which has been linked to extremist activities. In contrast, MBS has attempted to portray the kingdom as a moderate Islamic state by restricting radical preaching and intensifying surveillance of extremist groups. Increased official supervision over mosques and religious instruction aims to counter extremist ideology, while stronger relations with Western nations help combat terrorism financing and extremist networks. However, some conservative and radical sections see these developments as a rejection of Islamic teachings, which might feed internal extremism and provide recruitment chances for groups such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS.

Geopolitical Shifts: US-Saudi Relations, Competition with UAE and Qatar, and China’s Stance

MBS’s reforms are not occurring in a vacuum—they are reshaping Saudi Arabia’s relationships with global and regional powers. While historically focused on oil and security, tensions have escalated due to Saudi Arabia’s aggressiveness in OPEC+, human rights concerns particularly Journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder^[20], and policy disagreements. However, armament sales and counter-Iran operations keep the cooperation intact.

While Saudi Arabia once led the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) unchallenged, its regional peers—particularly the UAE and Qatar—are emerging as independent power players. The UAE’s economic rise poses a challenge to Saudi leadership in tourism, logistics, and finance. Despite rapprochement following the embargo (2017-2021), Qatar’s independent foreign policy remains a source of contention due to its relations with Iran and Turkey.

References:

• _{^[1]Saudi Arabia Approves Plan to Diversify Economy}
• _{^[2]Saudi Arabia job growth likely as woman driver ban ends}
• _{^[3] https://x.com/InspectorAsh/status/1897532511254945860}
• _{^[4] I will return Saudi Arabia to moderate Islam, says crown prince}
• _{^[5] Saudi Aramco IPO Raises $29.4 Billion.}
• _{^[6]The Saudi factories powered by women}
• _{^[7]Saudi’s biggest musical festival}
• _{^[8]2017–2019 Saudi Arabian purge}
• _{^[9] Sold for $450m to Saudi prince, ‘Salvator Mundi’ deemed not painted by Leonardo}
• _{^[10] https://www.britannica.com/topic/ijtihad}
• _{^[11] https://www.britannica.com/place/Ottoman-Empire/The-Tanzimat-reforms-1839-76}
• _{^[12]Goel, S. R. (1986). The Calcutta Quran Petition. Voice of India, New Delhi.}
• _{^[13] Al-Rasheed, M. (2013). A most masculine state: Gender, politics and religion in Saudi Arabia. Cambridge University Press.}
• _{^[14] China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal driving ‘wave of reconciliation’, says Wang}
• _{^[15] The New Battle for the Middle East}
• _{^[16] How Sunni-Shia Sectarianism Is Poisoning Yemen}
• _{^[17]Saudi Arabia and Indonesia: Clashing visions of ‘moderate Islam’}
• _{^[18]Saudi Arabia’s economic investments in Egypt run deep}
• _{^[19]Emerging Markets Saudi Arabia drops $5 billion in Turkey’s central bank to help its struggling economy}
• _{^[20] Jamal Khashoggi: All you need to know about Saudi journalist’s death}

Yogesh GS & Pranav S

Yogesh GS is a Law Student at the BMS Law College and a freelance contributor. He has a keen interest in Geopolitics and Foreign Policy. Pranav S is a Project Assistant at the Energy Department, Government of Karnataka with an MA in Public Policy. Views expressed are the authors own.