- The African National Congress (ANC) no longer holds a majority in parliament, requiring coalition partners to secure over 50 per cent of the votes to establish a government.
- The ANC’s further decline in the 2024 elections can be linked to a variety of interconnected reasons, including South Africa’s persistent economic difficulties, widespread corruption, and internal conflicts.
- The involvement of prominent party members, such as former President Jacob Zuma, in high-profile corruption cases has greatly tarnished the party’s reputation.
- The new government in South Africa may focus on enhancing economic connections with important allies such as India to stimulate economic progress and development.
The African National Congress (ANC) no longer holds a majority in parliament, requiring coalition partners to secure over 50 per cent of the votes to establish a government. Following the completion of ballot counting in South Africa, the ANC has garnered just 40.18 per cent of the votes in the recent election, falling significantly below a majority.
After the end of apartheid in 1994, the ruling party found itself in a new situation where it had to collaborate with other political parties to establish a Unity government. This marks a significant shift from its previous dominance.
Process of Elections
South Africans do not cast their votes directly for the president. Rather, they vote for the members of the National Assembly, who in turn choose the president through a simple majority vote – 201 or more votes are needed to secure the presidency. After the announcement of results by the IEC, specific procedural measures need to be taken for South Africa to establish a government.
The distribution of seats in the 400-member National Assembly is based on the election results in a proportional manner. The first session of the National Assembly must take place within 14 days of the election results, during which members are sworn in and the speaker is chosen.
The president of South Africa is elected by the National Assembly during the initial session or shortly thereafter. The president then appoints the cabinet and establishes the government. Following the election of the president, the government formation process, which includes the selection of ministers, typically takes place. This entire process is usually finalized within a few weeks to ensure a seamless transfer of power and the continuity of governance.
Since the end of apartheid in 1994, the ANC has consistently secured a majority in all six national elections. In 1994, the ANC garnered 62.5 per cent of the vote, followed by 66.4 per cent in 1999. In 2004, the party achieved its highest-ever vote share, with almost 70 per cent. In 2009, it won nearly 66 per cent of the votes, and in 2014, the figure stood at 62 per cent.
However, in the previous election held in 2019, the ANC experienced a decline in its margin of victory, securing 57.5 per cent of the vote, its lowest ever. On the other hand, the DA has consistently emerged as the second-place party in the past five elections.
ANC’s Decline
The ANC’s further decline in the 2024 elections can be linked to a variety of interconnected reasons. To begin with, South Africa’s persistent economic difficulties, including soaring unemployment rates and substantial economic disparities, have contributed to voter discontent with the party’s economic management. Furthermore, the ANC’s credibility and trustworthiness among the electorate have been significantly undermined by widespread corruption and various scandals, such as those brought to light by the Zondo Commission on state capture.
Economic disparity continues to be a pressing issue, as numerous South Africans believe that the ANC has not adequately tackled the wealth gap between the affluent and the impoverished. The ANC’s image has been significantly damaged due to corruption and scandals, leading to a further decline in public trust. The involvement of prominent party members, such as former President Jacob Zuma, in high-profile corruption cases has greatly tarnished the party’s reputation. The results of the Zondo Commission’s investigation into state capture exposed widespread corruption in the government, further fueling voter disenchantment with the ANC.
The ANC’s internal conflicts and factionalism have further undermined the party’s Unity and efficiency. The ongoing power struggles have hindered the ANC’s ability to project a unified stance and a consistent policy agenda, resulting in the public perceiving the party as being in a state of disarray. The convergence of these elements has resulted in a notable decrease in voter backing, resulting in the ANC no longer holding a clear majority for the first time post-apartheid.
The New Government and India
India plays a crucial role as a trade partner for South Africa, with annual bilateral trade amounting to around $10 billion. The presence of a stable and cooperative Unity government could create a favourable atmosphere for further improving these trade relations. The new government in South Africa may focus on enhancing economic connections with important allies such as India to stimulate economic progress and development.
India has made significant investments in South Africa, with a strong presence in industries like mining, pharmaceuticals, and technology. The potential for increased Indian investments in South Africa could be further boosted by a new government that prioritizes economic stability and growth, offering attractive policies and incentives to foreign investors.
India and South Africa, as members of BRICS, an alliance of emerging economies, are expected to maintain their active involvement in the group. The newly formed South African government is likely to continue promoting mutual interests in global economic and political forums through their participation in BRICS. This collaboration holds great potential for both nations, as it enables them to collectively tackle global challenges and strengthen their geopolitical influence.
The new administration may seek to enhance cultural and educational connections with India. Measures like facilitating student exchanges, fostering academic partnerships, and organizing cultural festivities have the potential to foster greater mutual understanding and friendship between the two countries.
The presence of internal conflicts or a lack of a unified policy direction within the Unity government could result in political instability. This instability has the potential to impact international relations, including those with India, as it introduces uncertainties regarding commitments and agreements.
Impact on Foreign Policy
Foreign policy may undergo shifts depending on the Unity partners and their respective priorities. If the new government embraces a more protectionist or introspective approach, it could potentially impact the flow of trade and investment. Nevertheless, considering the longstanding connections and shared advantages, significant changes of this nature are less probable, although they remain a possibility contingent upon the political dynamics within the unity.
In conclusion, the potential for strengthening and broadening ties between South Africa and India lies in the hands of the new coalition government. The success of this endeavour will primarily hinge on the stability and policy direction set by the new administration. By actively engaging and cooperating in areas of shared interest, such as trade, investment, and cultural exchanges, both nations can reap substantial benefits.
Balaji Subramanian 
Dhruv Ashok 
Aayush Pal