- The Indian Ocean has emerged as the new epicentre of global geopolitics and geoeconomics, with nearly 80% of the world’s oil passing through its waters.
- In retaliation to Israeli attacks, the Houthis have attempted to exert influence over the Indian Ocean.
- The UK finally agreed to return the Chagos Islands to Mauritius following 13 rounds of bilateral talks that began in 2022.
- India’s involvement in the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) further reflects its strategic vision for the region.
The Indian Ocean has emerged as the new epicentre of global geopolitics and geoeconomics, with nearly 80% of the world’s oil passing through its waters. It has become a hotspot for power contention, drawing the focus of major global players. Any significant international development now has direct repercussions on the Indian Ocean region. In 2024, regional incidents worldwide have had global impacts on the Indian Ocean, one of the most significant being the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
The Houthis, proxies of Iran, seek autonomous control over Yemen and have aligned themselves with the Palestinian cause amidst the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict. In retaliation against Israeli attacks, the Houthis have attempted to exert influence over the Indian Ocean. They have targeted maritime movements to create regional tensions, including commercial and naval ships passing through the Red Sea, particularly near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait off the Arabian coast.
Initially, the Houthis targeted ships bound for Israel but later expanded their attacks to include American and allied vessels, eventually targeting all commercial shipping in the region. This escalation has caused significant economic disruptions. According to Project 44, a prominent platform that provides advanced visibility for shippers, container ship traffic through the Red Sea experienced a significant decline of 78% in May 2024 compared to the previous period.
Furthermore, Osama Rabie, the head of the Suez Canal Authority, reported that the Canal suffered a 23.5% drop in its annual revenue for the fiscal year ending in June 2024. This decline, amounting to a financial loss of $7.2 billion, was primarily caused by the rerouting of numerous ships away from the Suez Canal. Notably, in January 2024, the Canal recorded a 40% reduction in revenue compared to January 2023.
These developments have forced many ships to reroute through the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, travelling via the Atlantic Ocean. This shift has not only created a significant security challenge in the Indian Ocean region but has also resulted in substantial global economic repercussions. The continued Houthi attacks threaten to further destabilize the region and impact global trade.
The Return of the Pirates
The Indian Ocean, known for its rich maritime commercial activity, has also been a focal point for non-state actors such as maritime pirates. These pirates engage in theft and sabotage attacks on commercial vessels traversing the waters. While the Indian Ocean has long been vulnerable to such piracy, continuous cooperation among nations in the past has kept this threat largely in check.
However, throughout 2024, security concerns in the Indian Ocean have resurfaced, primarily due to the resurgence of the Houthis. This resurgence has created an opportunity for pirates to escalate their activities, including attacks on ships in the region. Several incidents have been reported where vessels flying Pakistani or Chinese flags have been targeted by pirates. In many cases, the Indian Navy stepped in to provide rescue and protection.
While there is no official evidence of an unholy alliance between the Red Sea-based Houthis and the pirates operating in the Indian Ocean, it is plausible that they may be cooperating informally, given their shared interest in disrupting maritime activity in the region.
The Chagos Dispute
In October of this year, a historic decision was made by the United Kingdom and Mauritius regarding the Chagos Archipelago. Following 13 rounds of bilateral talks that began in 2022, the UK finally agreed to return the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. This decision aligns with previous rulings by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and resolutions by the United Nations General Assembly, which had called for the archipelago to be returned to Mauritius.
Historically, when Mauritius gained independence in 1968, the Chagos Archipelago remained under British control as part of the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT). Among the islands, Diego Garcia, the largest, was leased to the United States by the UK for military purposes. Under the new agreement, Diego Garcia will continue to be operated by the United States, but sovereignty over the archipelago will return to Mauritius.
This decision, while historic, has not been without controversy. Local communities, who were displaced during the creation of the BIOT, feel excluded from the ongoing dialogue. The UK has been criticized for not adequately involving these communities in the decision-making process.
Additionally, the handover raises strategic security concerns for the UK. The Chagos Archipelago, located in the heart of the Indian Ocean, provides critical strategic visibility and accessibility. While relinquishing sovereignty, the UK appears committed to maintaining its presence and influence in the region through strengthened ties with other Indian Ocean nations.
This includes enhancing partnerships with Australia and the United States under initiatives such as the AUKUS program. Such collaborations may ensure the UK remains strategically relevant in the Indian Ocean, despite the loss of direct control over the Chagos Archipelago.
India’s Endeavour in the Indian Ocean Region
The Indian Ocean region has always been a key area of strategic interest for India, which aims to establish a strong presence there. India is often regarded as the de facto leader of the Indian Ocean due to its geographical advantages. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, India has consistently worked to solidify its influence in the region.
This intent was evident in February 2024, when Prime Minister Modi visited the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE, situated along the Indian Ocean, is a strategic partner for India, and this visit highlighted India’s efforts to diversify its relationships to enhance its presence in the region. Similarly, Prime Minister Modi’s recent visit to Kuwait underscores India’s commitment to strengthening ties with Indian Ocean countries.
India’s involvement in the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) further reflects its strategic vision for the region. The Quad emphasizes transparency, inclusivity, respect for sovereignty, and the principle of free and open maritime movement in the Indian Ocean. India’s vision for the region is centred on mutual respect, transparency, and unhindered maritime activity, free from interference or unilateral actions.
However, China’s recent attempts to alter the status quo in the Indian Ocean—through unilateral actions or strengthened bilateral ties—have posed challenges. In response, India has made significant strides in building robust relationships with Indian Ocean nations, including ASEAN countries, Australia, and even West Asian nations. These efforts underscore India’s commitment to maintaining stability, sovereignty, and cooperation in the region.
References:
- https://www.project44.com/supply-chain-insights/houthi-attacks-on-container-vessels-prompt-carriers-to-avoid-bab-al-mandeb-strait/
- https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-mauritius-joint-statement-on-the-chagos-archipelago-20-december-
- https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/37610/Prime_Ministers_visit_to_the_United_Arab_Emirates_February_1314_2024
- https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/38866/Joint+Statement+Official+visit+of+Shri+Narendra+Modi+Prime+Minister+of+India+to+Kuwait+December+2122+2024
Aayush Pal is a freelance writer on contemporary geopolitical developments. The views expressed in his work are entirely his own.
Shobhil Shrivastava