Summary: The 2020 Venezuelan parliamentary elections are being held amid a raging political crisis. The opposition has boycotted the elections alleging that it would help President Nicolas Maduro strengthen his grip on both the country’s legislature and the National Assembly. His opponent Juan Guaido is set to lose his leadership of Venezuela’s National Assembly.
With the opposition boycotting the polls, Maduro presidency is a forgone conclusion. However, the protests over food, livelihood, opportunities and opposition sponsored violence will continue if Maduro fails in addressing the real problems facing the people. With socialist policies having failed a once thriving Venezuela, Maduro and his government have to look into alternate sources of revenue and employment generation. He also has the huge task of taking Venezuela towards the path to progress where the citizens are equal participants and not recipients of dole outs alone.
Venezuela went to polls on Sunday in the country’s parliamentary elections. The election will result in the election of 277 deputies, which is an increase of 93 seats from the earlier 167 deputies in the National Assembly. The elections are expected to reinstate Nicolas Maduro as the President. However, the opposition parties that make up the Democratic Unity Roundtable coalition have agreed unanimously to not participate in the election raising concerns of the political crisis continuing even after the pools. The opposition cites irregularities, and complains that the planning of the election process itself was wrong and hence the outcome would be fraudulent.
The opposition alleges that the election is a ploy by the incumbent President Nicolas Maduro to extend control over the country’s legislature, the National Assembly (AN), and fully consolidate his regime’s grip on power in the country. Adding fuel to the speculations, international observers like the EU and the Organization of American States (OAS) have refused to send observers to Sunday’s election and said the conditions for a ‘democratic process in Venezuela do not currently exist’.
More than 20 million Venezuelans will be eligible to vote in the election. Local reports say that given the opposition boycott and complaints of fraud, enthusiasm for the election appears to be low among the citizens. Pollster Datanalisis predicts that only about 34% of Venezuelans would turn out to vote. Moreover, the election has come amid a global pandemic, chronic shortages of gas, basic food and medical supplies, and as 5 million Venezuelans have fled the country in search of better livelihood and food security. International organisations say that the wave of migration from Venezuela is second in size only to that of war-torn Syria.
Nicolás Maduro has been the President since 2013, a post he assumed after Hugo Chávez’s death on 5 March 2013. Despite being described as “most capable administrator” and almost 7 years of his continuous rule, the International Monetary Fund has projected a 25% decline this year in Venezuela’s GDP, while hyperinflation has consumed its currency, the bolivar. Despite a failing economy, food and humanitarian crisis, observers say that Maduro has the complete backing of the Venezuelan Army due to which he is able to retain power.
The Sunday election was expected to end the power struggle between the opposition which controlled the Asamblea Nacional (National Assembly or AN) and Venezuela’s ruling party (PSUV) to an end. The AN was the last source of power for the opposition, in a country where all institutions are controlled or influenced by Maduro. The opposition had gained control over the AN in 2015, when it won by a landslide. But the victory was short-lived for the opposition, as the courts which are alleged to be pro-government stripped the legislature of power and allowed for the creation of a parallel and all-powerful legislative body known as the National Constituent Assembly (ANC).
An 2015 election to the AN was seen as compromised as it was allegedly filled with PSUV and Maduro loyalists. This power struggle between Juan Guaido and Maduro which started in 2015 continued till 2019 when Guaido declared himself acting president of Venezuela. He claimed that his decision was based on constitutional powers granted to him as chief of the AN. Guaido was also successful in obtaining the backing of the United States and more than 50 other nations around the world.
Despite the international backing, Guaido’s interim presidency and parallel government have not been successful at dislodging Maduro from power or persuading the army to switch sides. Several high-profile pushes for mass mobilization and a failed coup attempt, the opposition could not hold on to the AN. Further cracks among the opposition began to show after Guaido’s government found itself entrenched in a corruption scandal.
In June 2020, Venezuelan Supreme Court suspended the leadership of three opposition parties and appointed new leaders, who were accused of conspiring to support Maduro. While the major opposition alliance has boycotted the election, as a small faction has pledged to participate in the vote breaking the opposition unity.
However, for AN leader Guaido is not ready to give up as yet. He has planned a week-long plebiscite, starting Monday 7 Dec, to rebuke the new congress and seeking public support to prolong the mandate of the current AN under his leadership until “free, verifiable and transparent” elections can be held. The plebiscite is said to be more of a media exercise as its results will not be binding once a new AN comes to power.
With the opposition boycotting the polls, Maduro presidency is a forgone conclusion. However, the protests over food, livelihood, opportunities and opposition sponsored violence will continue if Maduro fails in addressing the real problems facing the people. He must also take the international community and organisations in confidence and ensure that the aid Venezuela deserves reaches the true beneficiaries. With socialist policies having failed a once thriving Venezuela and depletion of its oil reserves, Maduro and his government have to look into alternate sources of revenue and employment generation. He also has the huge task of taking Venezuela towards the path to progress where the citizens are equal participants and not recipients of dole outs alone.
Shobhil Shrivastava 
Aayush Pal