The Maldives under President Muizzu has shifted focus toward China, raising India’s concerns over strategic influence in the Indian Ocean region.
India and the Maldives are navigating complex relationships, balancing defense cooperation while China’s economic influence grows through initiatives like the Belt and Road.
Strengthening bilateral trust and collaboration between India and the Maldives remains essential for regional stability, as both nations address geopolitical challenges and evolving power dynamics.
Understanding the Context: A Shift in Maldives’ Foreign Policy
The political climate in the Maldives has significantly changed since November this year when President Muizzu assumed power. His administration’s shift in focus toward the Asian superpower, China, has elicited concern in India over China asserting its control over this strategically located island country in the Indian Ocean region.
The Maldives is significant for India’s “Neighborhood First” policy, which New Delhi encourages to facilitate stability and security in the South Asian region. Recent diplomatic events, such as those following Muizzu’s initial pro-Chinese stance, show that India wants to restore diplomatic relations with the Maldives. Three months later, in September 2024, during an interview, Foreign Minister Zameer admitted that there had been some hiccups in the relationship with India but acknowledged that both nations are working to ease misunderstandings. This acknowledgment indicates that both countries may have political differences, which are best resolved by strengthening bilateral relations.
Role of Media in Framing Global Narratives
Indian media coverage highlighting China’s growing importance in the Maldives under Zameer’s administration plays a multifaceted role. Firstly, it assists in portraying China’s emergence as a potential threat to South Asia, influencing public opinion and policymaking. By framing China as an overbearing hegemon, the media might be building public demand for closer diplomatic and military ties with Male. This is relevant, especially since Muizzu’s government initially demanded the withdrawal of Indian troops from the Maldives, marking a departure from India’s presence.
Navigating Complex Strategic Relationships and Understanding China’s Influence
Fresh international defense talks in July between the Maldives and India focused on key regional strategy and security issues, particularly concerning South Asian geopolitical ties. These discussions emphasized defense cooperation and the provision of materiel, as highlighted by Maldivian Defense Minister Mohammed Ghassan Maumoon during his trip to India. Such agreements would help India solidify its role as a vital strategic partner in the greater Indian Ocean region. Although Muizzu politicized the presence of Indian troops before the elections, his administration now seems to be shifting its stance. The Maldives is attempting to expand its relationships with both India and China, adopting a policy of inclusion rather than exclusion.
China’s growing engagement in the region presents challenges and raises questions about its role in the South Asian Ocean and broader geopolitical context. Investments such as the Belt and Road Initiative could make the Maldives and other states in the region heavily reliant on Beijing economically. This dependence could lead to political issues, such as a loss of autonomy and governance challenges. India’s concerns regarding Chinese influence are justified, rooted in historical competition for global leadership. As China broadens its economic and military agreements with countries like the Maldives, India must rethink strategies to rebalance power while strengthening regional partnerships.
Way Forward
The Maldives Foreign Minister’s recent visit marks a defining moment in South Asian geopolitics. To mend ties with the Maldives, India must apply cautious diplomatic measures while factoring in the growing influence of China. Reporting accuracy by the media will play a critical role in determining outcomes.
Image Credits: Business Standard
India and the Maldives are better positioned when engaging in initiatives that foster collaboration without compromising core principles. By anchoring their relationship on trust and cooperation, the two nations can contribute to economic growth and balance in a multipolar world order. Moving into 2025, the dynamics of these relationships will need close observation as they continue to evolve.
References:
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2021/10/chinas-influence-in-southeastern-central-and-eastern-europe-vulnerabilities-and-resilience-in-four-countries?lang=en
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBr1IpldlAY&t=2s
Shrivara Mahajan is pursuing an International Relations major with a minor in Public Policy at OP Jindal Global University. He is a Senior Intern at the Jindal Centre for the Global South and has priorly interned with The Spread Smile Foundation. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Satish Chogule 
Aayush Pal 
Megha Joshy Mathew