- The current imbroglio between Russia and Azerbaijan started when two Azerbaijani citizens residing in the city of Yekaterinburg died while in police custody.
- The Russian authorities accuse them of being involved in criminal activity, while Azerbaijan has blamed Russia for specifically targeting Azerbaijani citizens.
- If the differences between Azerbaijan and Russia escalate, Moscow may lose a strategic foothold in the region, potentially giving a free run to Turkey.
Russia and Azerbaijan, two former Soviet countries situated close to each other and sharing a cordial relationship, have now found themselves at opposite ends as the two countries are currently witnessing a diplomatic fallout.
The current imbroglio started when two Azerbaijani citizens residing in the city of Yekaterinburg died while in police custody. The Russian authorities had accused the two of being involved in criminal activity. Since the deaths happened in police custody, Azerbaijan has blamed the Russian government for specifically targeting Azerbaijani citizens in Russia.
As a result, Azerbaijan summoned the Russian ambassador to Baku last Saturday. Along with this, Azerbaijan has also started targeting Russian citizens situated across Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani authorities have also raided the Russian state-sponsored media house Sputnik’s office in Baku, accusing it of involvement in illegal financial settlements.
Seeing the targeting of Russian citizens and organisations related to Russia, Russia, in a tit-for-tat move, has summoned the Azerbaijani ambassador to Moscow. Russia has also said that Azerbaijan’s actions against Russian citizens in Baku are inconsistent and would only erode bilateral relations between the two countries. However, Azerbaijan continues to insist that Russians must be brought to justice.
This diplomatic fallout comes at a very interesting time. Recently, due to the widening rift between Armenia and Russia, because of the pro-Western stance of the Armenian government, Russia had sided with Azerbaijan. Russia’s reliance on Azerbaijan for regional geopolitics is now under threat. If the differences between Azerbaijan and Russia escalate, Moscow may lose a strategic foothold in the region, potentially giving a free run to Turkey.
Russia’s closeness with Azerbaijan started after the coming of Nikol Pashinyan, the incumbent Prime Minister of Armenia, who has made the choice of building closer relations with the West. Armenia wants to become a member of NATO, and along with that, it also wants to join the European Union. This is why Armenia wants to strengthen its ties with the West.
Russia fears that Armenia’s close relationship with the West would be detrimental to Russia’s interests in the region. As a result, Russia has decided to maintain its relationship with Azerbaijan. An example of this was seen during the Nagorno-Karabakh Wars I and II, where Russia did not provide strategic support to Armenia despite Armenia being a member of the CSTO, which Armenia used as a reason to withdraw from the CSTO by saying that Russia did not invoke the charter of security inside the CSTO.
However, these differences also create a greater opportunity for Armenia to introspect its ties with Russia. If Armenia shows greater pragmatism, it can reset ties with Russia to not only cement mutual trust but, more importantly, use Russia’s regional geopolitical influence to counter Azerbaijan’s belligerence in the region.
Aayush Pal is a freelance writer on contemporary geopolitical developments. The views expressed in his work are entirely his own.
Shashank Pandey 
Megna Devkar