Iran Announces the Formation of a Naval Alliance in the Indian Ocean

• West Asia is one of the major sources of oil supply and to ship oil safely, the safety of the sea lines of communication is one of the concerns for the region.
• The presence of naval ships, especially of any alliance system, provides a sense of security in the region.
• China has become an important factor in the region and its increasing presence and impact there should not be ruled out. 
• The formation of a naval alliance led by Iran will be seen as a direct challenge to the US and it also signifies decreasing dominance of the US in the region.

Introduction

An important development has occurred in West Asia where Iran is planning to form a naval alliance with Gulf countries. Iran’s navy commander Shahram Irani stated in a television programme that they are planning to form a naval alliance with countries, namely the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Iraq and it will also include India as well as Pakistan. The purpose of this alliance will be to ensure collective security. However, further details about the alliance were not announced.¹

Recent Developments

West Asia is popular for oil and confrontation and, for too long, these countries have been guided by mistrust among them. But looking at recent developments, it seems that a sense of cooperation is taking over confrontation.² They are working to build trust among them and peace and security in the region.

Israel wants to diplomatically isolate Iran and, with the help of the US, it succeeded at large. But in March 2023, a different and unexpected picture came to the fore. China mediated a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia resulting in the ending of seven years of hostility between them.³

​In 2020, the UAE became the first Gulf country to normalise its relations with Israel and later on both formed together a quad grouping called I2U2 with India and the US. Later, following the UAE, Morocco and Bahrain also established diplomatic relationships with Israel. Whereas, with Iran, the UAE resumed its formal relations last year.⁴

The announcement of a naval alliance by commander Shahram Irani was made two days after the announcement made by the UAE that it has withdrawn its participation from US-led Combined Maritime Forces.⁵

Importance of Naval Alliance in the Indian Ocean

West Asia is rich in natural resources, particularly oil and natural gas. Therefore, West Asia is one of the major sources of oil supply for the world and most of the global oil is shipped through the Indian Ocean. 

To ship oil safely, the safety of the sea lines of communication and protection from pirates in the region is one of the concerns for the region. Therefore, the presence of navy ships, especially of any alliance system, provides a sense of security in the region. However, it is not as simple as it seems. There are greater geopolitical pushes and pulls happening in the region.

Reasons for Iran’s Desire for a Naval Alliance

The US has imposed sanctions on Iran under CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) and has threatened all other countries to impose sanctions if any trading partner of the US does bilateral contracts with Iran, North Korea or Russia.⁶ Therefore, under the pressure of US sanctions, almost every country stopped doing trade with Tehran. This led to the isolation of Tehran. 

The formation of a naval alliance that is led by Iran, can be seen as a direct challenge to the US. This also signifies decreasing dominance of the US in the region and the increasing posture of Iran. 

Through this alliance system, Tehran will get a strong hold on the SLOCs which goes against the interests of the US as the US is also dependent on these SLOCs for its trade.  

There is a trend in geopolitics that different types of blocs or groups are being formed and Iran is lacking in this as it is not getting much space to be part of different bloc systems. Therefore, it can be assumed that Tehran is becoming disparate to form a bloc.

China has become an important factor in the region and its increasing presence and impact there should not be ruled out. The way Riyadh and Tehran made a peace deal shows that China is trying to play a big brotherly role in the region. Therefore, if this alliance becomes a reality, then China’s interference in the region is going to increase. 

Possibility of Alliance Formation

After analysing the importance and reasons, the fundamental question that we need to answer is what is the possibility of the formation of this alliance. To find out the answer, we need to know what is the current geopolitical scenario regarding Iran. 

In the northern Indian Ocean, there is scope for a greater presence of navies, which justifies a naval alliance for security and safety in the region. 

If we look at the behaviour of Iran in the northern Indian Ocean, especially in the Strait of Hormuz, it seems countries are not going to take this idea of the naval alliance by Iran seriously. Many times, the Iran Revolutionary Guard used to harass US ships in the Strait of Hormuz.⁷ They did not do this only with the US but Israeli ships also face the same things. Seeing these geopolitical moves by Iran, countries will hesitate to join this alliance. 

The reality is that under the pressure of the US, countries including India and Pakistan have stopped buying Iranian oil, so, going into an alliance that can be motivated against the interests of the US is very less likely.

India has very good relations with Israel that both cherish. Therefore, going into an alliance that can hurt Israel is not a good idea. 

Conclusion

Formation or joining any alliance system is based on the incentives that drive a country towards that particular alliance or grouping. Here, in this case, incentives do not look very attractive. Therefore, for the time being, the chances of the formation of this naval alliance with the same given countries are low. 

_{(Ashish is a Research Scholar currently pursuing PhD from Amity University, Noida)}

References:

1. _{Reuters. (2023, June 3). Iran says to form a naval alliance with Gulf states to ensure regional stability. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-form-naval-alliance-with-gulf-states-ensure-regional-stability-2023-06-03/} 
2. _{Amir, S. R. (2023). Unveiling Iranian Strive to Form a Naval Alliance in the Gulf. Modern Diplomacy. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/06/15/unveiling-iranian-strive-to-form-a-naval-alliance-in-the-gulf/} 
3. _{Aboudouh, A. (2023). China’s mediation between Saudi and Iran is no cause for panic in Washington. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/chinas-mediation-between-saudi-and-iran-is-no-cause-for-panic-in-washington/} 
4. _{Reuters. (2023, June 3). Iran says to form a naval alliance with Gulf states to ensure regional stability. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-form-naval-alliance-with-gulf-states-ensure-regional-stability-2023-06-03/} 
5. _{Ibrahim, A. (2023, May 31). UAE withdraws from US-led maritime coalition. News | Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/31/uae-withdraws-from-us-led-maritime-coalition}    
6. _{Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) | Assent. (n.d.). Assent. https://www.assent.com/resources/knowledge-article/what-is-caatsa/}
7. _{Gambrell, J. (2023, June 5). US Navy says Iran Revolutionary Guard fast-attack boats “harassed” ship in Strait of Hormuz. AP NEWS. https://apnews.com/article/iran-tanker-seizures-us-uk-navy-revolutionary-guard-a8996a3dccccc82f8fa8d8bf263c9cfb}

Ashish Keserwani