The Quad’s peak activity during 2017–2020 was driven by shared conservative leadership across member nations and a unified stance against China’s assertiveness, especially under Trump’s hardline policies.
Post-2020, leadership changes, COVID-19 disruptions, and divergent priorities among members, including India’s neutral stance on Russia, have slowed the Quad’s momentum.
The Quad’s future hinges on navigating differences in formalization, expanding membership, and addressing geopolitical challenges, with renewed hope tied to Trump’s potential return and hardline approach towards China.
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, commonly known as the Quad, was first proposed by the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2007. The idea emerged when countries like Australia, India, and the United States joined Japan to provide maritime support following the devastating tsunami Japan experienced. This initiative eventually led to the formation of a strategic informal association in the Asia-Pacific region.
Initially, the Quad lacked a clear vision, and Australia withdrew from the association under pressure from China. The primary purpose of the Quad was to balance the region against Chinese belligerence. However, in 2017, Japan, India, Australia, and the United States came together to re-establish the informal strategic association, emphasizing transparency, inclusivity, and balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region.
The Quad continued to function as an important pillar in the region, with its peak activity observed between 2017 and 2020. However, recent years have seen a sense of inactivity within the Quad. Notably, from May 2022 to September 2024, no head-of-state meeting took place within the group, signaling a potential slowdown in its momentum.
Quad during 2017–20
The perceived inactivity of the Quad raises several critical questions. One of the key questions is: what changes have occurred within the Quad that have led to this sense of inactivity? Another is: why did the Quad witness its peak activity between 2017 and 2020, and what has changed since then?
To answer this, it is essential to understand the dynamics of the Quad during its peak years. One of the reasons for this active period was the leadership of the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and, more importantly, the former President of the United States, Donald Trump, who served from 2017 to 2020. During this time, the Quad countries shared ideological similarities, as all four nations were led by conservative governments. Australia, the United States, India, and Japan had a shared understanding of China’s growing influence and believed that the region required an alternative to counterbalance China’s unilateral ambitions.
Between 2017 and 2020, each country had its reasons for actively engaging in the Quad. For the United States under Donald Trump, China was perceived as the country’s biggest competitor. Trump adopted a hardline policy against China, leading to an economic cold war. The United States also sought to increase its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region and align with nations sharing similar concerns about China’s influence.
For Australia, under the leadership of former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, there was a clear effort to reduce the country’s dependency on China. Morrison was vocal about China’s strategic incursions into the region, including its growing influence in the Solomon Islands and other parts of Oceania, which were matters of concern for Australia. This strained relations between the two nations, even leading to an economic cold war where China reduced its coal imports from Australia.
India, on the other hand, sought to strengthen its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counter China’s assertiveness. Recognizing the region’s strategic importance, India found alignment with the Quad’s objectives to ensure a free, open, and balanced power structure in the Asia-Pacific.
For Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe emphasized the need to counter China’s dominance in East Asia. Abe envisioned a stronger Japan capable of playing a leading role in the region’s strategic affairs, further solidifying Japan’s commitment to the Quad’s objectives.
Post-2020
Several factors contributed to the challenges faced by the Quad.
Firstly, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a diplomatic pause in the region. Subsequently, general elections and leadership changes in three member countries led to shifts in their foreign policy priorities.
In Japan, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a key proponent of the Quad, was forced to step down in 2020 due to health concerns. Although his successors, Yoshihide Suga and later Fumio Kishida, belonged to the same Liberal Democratic Party, their individual foreign policy approaches differed. While Abe aimed to leverage the Quad to counter China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific region, Suga and Kishida preferred a more bilateral approach, relying primarily on the United States to address China’s challenges. This shift created a sense of isolation for Japan within the Quad.
In Australia, the change in government in 2022 brought new priorities. The Labor government, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, focused on resolving the economic issues caused by trade tensions with China. While Australia remains concerned about China’s growing influence, the Albanese government sought to rebuild economic relations with China rather than allowing diplomatic challenges to hijack political and economic ties. This approach included resuming coal exports to China and a state visit by Prime Minister Albanese to China in 2024.
The United States, previously seen as the de facto leader of the Quad due to its military and economic power, has also shifted its approach under President Joe Biden. While the U.S. recognizes China as a threat, the Biden administration has focused more on bilateral and unilateral strategies to contain China’s influence. Diplomatic resolutions and targeted initiatives, rather than collective Quad action, have become the preferred methods under the Biden administration.
Another significant problem within the Quad lies in its very status as an informal association. While the United States, Japan, and Australia favor a more formalized strategic framework for the Quad, India opposes this notion. India argues that formalizing the Quad could have negative ramifications for its strategic interests. Specifically, India fears that a formal Quad might provoke political and military actions from China that could adversely impact India, especially given that India is the only Quad member sharing a direct land boundary with China.
Another point of contention has arisen since Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine in 2022. Unlike the other three Quad nations, which have taken an anti-Russia stance, India has maintained a neutral position. This divergence in policy has created differences within the Quad.
Additionally, there is a disagreement regarding the scope of the Quad’s agenda. The United States, Japan, and Australia believe that the Quad should address global issues, including conflicts outside the Indo-Pacific, such as the Ukraine crisis. However, India holds the view that the Quad should focus solely on matters within the geographical scope of the Indo-Pacific and avoid addressing broader global conflicts.
With the return of President Trump, there is renewed optimism about the resurgence of the Quad. President Trump is likely to pursue policies that are critical of China due to the intense competition between the two nations. His past manifesto clearly outlined tough economic measures against China and the intention to strengthen relationships with countries in the Indo-Pacific region. This has generated hope for the Quad’s revitalization.
However, this optimism will only be validated over time, as key questions remain unanswered. One pressing question is whether the Quad will expand its membership. During President Trump’s first term, there were attempts to include South Korea and some Southeast Asian countries, particularly the Philippines, due to their shared concerns about China’s aggressive actions.
The Philippines, for instance, has ongoing maritime disputes with China, making its potential inclusion in the Quad a logical step. However, any expansion of the Quad will depend on the consensus of the other three member countries and their strategic priorities. It remains to be seen whether the Quad will take concrete steps toward enlargement or continue to function as it is.
Reference
Aayush Pal is a freelance writer on contemporary geopolitical developments. The views expressed in his work are entirely his own.
Satish Chogule 
Shobhil Shrivastava