Legacy of Sykes-Picot: The Sykes-Picot Agreement’s arbitrary borders ignored the ethnic and religious diversity of the Middle East, creating instability that persists today.
Geopolitical Importance: The region, shaped by geography and abundant resources, remains a battleground for global powers like the U.S., Russia, and China, as explored in works like The Grand Chessboard and Kaplan’s The Revenge of Geography.
Youth Challenges and Conflict: High youth unemployment and lack of opportunities exacerbate regional instability, driving young people toward radicalization and armed conflict, deepening the cycle of violence.
To know the present all one has to do is look into the past and what is happening in Syria is
nothing but the unraveling of the Sykes-Picot Agreement, a complex process tied to historical,
political, and social dynamics of the Middle East. This agreement which was signed in 1916
during World War I by Britain and France, with the assent of Russia, divided the Ottoman
Empire’s territories into spheres of influence and laid the groundwork for modern national
borders in the region.
Over the past century, several factors have undermined the framework established by this
agreement, particularly in the post-2010 period. And what the world is now witnessing is the
actions of arrogant colonialist who drew borders without taking into consideration the ethnic,
tribal, and religious makeup of the region. These artificial boundaries lumped together diverse
groups with conflicting interests and excluded others, creating inherent instability.
The Vast Quadrilateral
In book The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate (2012), Robert D. Kaplan emphasizes the enduring importance of geography in shaping the history, politics, and conflicts of the Middle East. He writes that the region’s location at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa makes it a perpetual battleground for empires and external powers.
Kaplan in his book gives reference to the “Vast Quadrilateral” in the Middle East describes a key geographic concept he uses to frame the region’s strategic importance and its historical and modern conflicts. The quadrilateral encompasses a large swath of the Middle East defined by natural and political boundaries, focusing on how geography shapes the politics, culture, and power dynamics within it.
From a geographical perspective, what Kaplan meant when he gave the reference to the Vast Quadrilateral, the Mediterranean Sea (to the west), including key coastal regions of Lebanon, Israel, and Syria. The Zagros Mountains (to the east), spanning parts of modern-day Iran and Iraq. The Arabian Desert (to the south), covering much of the Arabian Peninsula. And the Anatolian Plateau (to the north), in present-day Turkey where geography plays a decisive role in shaping human activity and geopolitical power.
The quadrilateral links Europe, Asia, and Africa, making it a central corridor for trade, migration, and military campaigns throughout history. Key chokepoints like the Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz, and Bosporus further enhance its global strategic significance.
Mackinder’s Heartland Theory and Zbigniew Brzezinski’s The Grand Chessboard
Halford Mackinder’s “The Geographical Pivot of History” (1904) was his foundational work in geopolitics, presenting a theory that geography fundamentally influences global power dynamics. In this work, Mackinder identifies a region he calls the “Heartland,” central to his vision of global strategy and power and Syria could most likely be the most strategically important area for any aspiring global hegemon.
In the book, The Grand Chessboard a book written by Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former U.S. National Security Advisor explores the geopolitical strategy of the United States in the post-Cold War world, particularly its role in controlling global power dynamics. Brzezinski argues that the key to maintaining U.S. dominance lies in the “Eurasian Balkans,” a term he uses to describe the regions spanning Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia. These areas, especially the Middle East, are seen as crucial due to their vast energy resources, geopolitical significance, and potential for conflict.
The book’s central thesis is the concept of “Eurasian geopolitical chess,” where the U.S. must ensure that no single power dominates this region, particularly Russia or China, which could disrupt the balance of power. In this framework, the Middle East plays a pivotal role, given its strategic location, its energy reserves, and its involvement in global power politics. For Brzezinski, American primacy is most important and it must exploit religious hostility and never allow Islamic fundamentalism undermine or jeopardize American regional interests,
In relation to the Middle East, The Grand Chessboard discusses the importance of the region for American foreign policy. It underscores the need for the U.S. to maintain influence there to prevent the rise of a regional hegemon that could challenge U.S. interests. This involves managing the complex relationships among countries like Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, as well as dealing with the threat of Islamic extremism, oil markets, and regional instability.
Brzezinski’s work emphasizes the use of soft and hard power to maintain U.S. interests and influence in the Middle East. The Middle East’s instability and the strategic importance of oil supply routes contribute to its central role in the broader Eurasian chessboard.
In the context of contemporary geopolitics, many of Brzezinski’s ideas about Eurasian balance and Middle Eastern security continue to be relevant, especially in terms of U.S. engagement in the region, the implications of Russian and Chinese actions, and the global significance of the Middle East’s resources.
Conclusion
Syria and the Vast Quadrilateral is home to 70 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves and 40
per cent of natural gas. Also, as per a report published by the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) 2 , “Youth unemployment is 25 percent on average and reaches above 30 percent in ten
regional countries. More than 35 percent of Arab Youth consider youth unemployment as the
biggest obstacle currently facing the Middle East, and close to 60 percent think that connections
– or waste – are critical to a person’s success in finding a job.”
Also, the population in the Middle East has doubled between 1995 and 2025 with 65 per cent of
the population is under the age of 30 years. The youth are very aspirational but lack of education
and unemployment the prospect of the Syrian conflict spreading across the region will thrust the
youth to take up arms for their respective religion, sect, and ethnicity.
Foreign interventions, including by the US, Russia, Iran, and Turkey, have exacerbated regional
instability. Competing interests have further eroded the sovereignty of states like Syria and Iraq,
fragmenting authority. Groups like ISIS, Hezbollah, and Kurdish militias have played significant roles in reshaping political realities. Their success demonstrates the weakness of national
governments created under the Sykes-Picot framework.
The Middle East after the Sykes-Picot Agreement and World War II experienced profound
transformations driven by decolonization, nationalism, Cold War dynamics, and resource-driven
geopolitics. While new states emerged, the region remained deeply shaped by the legacies of
colonial borders, external interference, and unresolved conflicts. These dynamics continue to
influence the Middle East’s political and social landscape today and the people are still paying
for the sins of their colonial masters.
References:
Balaji is a freelance writer with an MA in History and Political science and has published articles on defence and strategic affairs and book reviews. He tweets @LaxmanShriram78. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Dr. Niranjan B Poojar 
Aayush Pal 
Shobhil Shrivastava