India’s Call for Treaty Reconsideration: India has officially requested a reconsideration of the Indus Waters Treaty, citing demographic, environmental, and developmental changes since the treaty’s signing in 1960. This includes concerns about cross-border terrorism and the need for clean energy development.
Pakistan’s Response and Concerns: Pakistan insists that India abide by the treaty, emphasizing the established framework of the Indus Water Commissioners for resolving disputes. Pakistan has raised concerns over India’s construction of hydroelectric dams, particularly the Kishenganga and Ratle projects.
Potential for Regional Instability: The current tensions over water resources could further destabilize India-Pakistan relations and potentially lead to conflict. Both countries are navigating complex issues of water scarcity, regional politics, and international criticism, with the Indus Waters Treaty at the center of these challenges.
Introduction
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, has long been held up as a comprehensive framework for allocating the hydropower resources of the Indus River between India and Pakistan. However, recent developments have reignited tensions surrounding this treaty, highlighting it as a potential flashpoint in the already fraught relationship between the two nations.
Recent Developments
On August 30, 2024, Pakistan received an official notice from India requesting a reconsideration of the Indus Waters Treaty. This notice is particularly significant as it relates to Article XII (3) of the treaty, which allows for modifications under changing circumstances. India argues that a review is necessary, citing demographic, environmental, and developmental changes that were not anticipated at the time of the treaty’s signing. These include population growth, environmental degradation, and the need for clean energy development to meet emission targets. Additionally, India points to ongoing cross-border terrorism as a lingering issue that further necessitates a reassessment of the treaty’s commitments.
In response to India’s notice, Pakistan’s Foreign Office urged New Delhi to honor the treaty. Pakistan’s spokesperson, Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, reaffirmed the country’s support for the Indus Waters Treaty, emphasizing that any issues or concerns should be addressed within the framework of the Indus Water Commissioners. Baloch insisted that all approaches to addressing these concerns must align with the treaty’s provisions.
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, has remained one of the few stable bilateral agreements between India and Pakistan, even through periods of armed conflict, hostility, and the Kargil War. The treaty divides the six rivers of the Indus basin, granting India control over the Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas rivers, while Pakistan governs the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers. It also requires both countries to share information regarding water usage.
Tensions have escalated in recent years, with Pakistan accusing India of constructing hydroelectric dams on rivers allocated to Pakistan. The Kishenganga and Ratle dams have been particularly contentious, with Pakistan raising concerns and seeking international intervention. In an effort to resolve these disputes, the World Bank appointed a neutral expert and established a Court of Arbitration. However, India has raised objections, arguing that this violates the dispute-resolution process outlined in the treaty.
India’s recent notice can be traced to its earlier requests for treaty alterations in January 2023, as well as its ongoing dissatisfaction with Pakistan’s handling of water-related disputes. The Indian government has called for direct negotiations under Article XII(3) of the treaty, asserting that cooperation is essential for managing shared water resources.
Political Consequences for India
The implications of these developments are significant:
1. International Relations: India’s unilateral actions concerning the Indus Waters Treaty could attract international criticism, potentially straining its political relationships with not only Pakistan but also other neighboring countries that rely on shared water resources.
2. Domestic Policy: Water scarcity is becoming an increasingly severe issue in South Asia, including within India. The Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation faces the challenge of balancing national water consumption with treaty obligations, while also considering the impacts of climate change.
3. Regional Stability: There is a real risk of conflict over the use of water resources. As both countries gauge each other’s responses to this contentious issue, the situation could escalate, deepening the rivalry between India and Pakistan and threatening regional stability.
Conclusion
India’s recent move to seek alterations to the Indus Waters Treaty has heightened tensions with Pakistan and exposed weaknesses in the governance of shared water systems. As the conflict over water intensifies, there is an urgent need for peace talks to prevent further escalation and ensure effective management of riparian resources. The future of the treaty remains uncertain, and its outcome could have far-reaching consequences for regional politics and the economies of both nations. Without mutual recognition of the need for cooperation, neither country will be able to fully address the challenges posed by the evolving environmental and geopolitical landscape.
References:
The Indus Waters Treaty: Prospects for India-Pakistan Peace https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/papers/the-indus-waters-treaty-prospects-for-india-pakistan-peace/
As India serves notice over Indus Water Treaty, Pakistan urges New Delhi to honour pact’s provisions-https://www.firstpost.com/world/as-india-serves-notice-over-indus-water-treaty-pakistan-urges-new-delhi-to-honour-pacts-provisions-13817363.html
India’s Approach To Indus Water Treaty: National Security Perspective-https://cenjows.in/indias-approach-to-indus-water-treaty-national-security-perspective/
Parag is pursuing his master’s at the Jindal School of International Affairs. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Balaji Subramanian 
Dhruv Ashok 
Aayush Pal