Analyzing India-France Relations In Light of Macron’s Visit

• The Indo-French partnership has reliability, continuity and synergy, resulting in not just strategic cooperation, but also strong socio-cultural ties between the two.
• The power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific are a matter of grave concern, as both India and France are well aware that it is the increasing presence of the Chinese, which is posing a serious threat to the freedom of navigation in the region.
• France is concerned about the threat to its EEZ by which its supply chains lead to inevitable Chinese dependency. However, with the Indian assurance of scaling up the scope and efficiency of its indigenous supply chain mechanisms, the Chinese monopoly can collapse over some time.
• India needs to keep in mind that France, is neither Russia nor the USA, as it has limited strategic influence in in shaping the global norms.

The two-day state visit of French President Emmanuel Macron, as India’s 75^th Republic Day chief guest is just the icing on the cake, of the long-drawn strategic cooperation between India and France for decades. The Indo-French partnership has always demonstrated the critical qualities of reliability, continuity and synergy, which has resulted in the development of not just strategic cooperation, but also strengthened the socio-cultural ties between both countries. With the recent visit of President Macron, several defence deals such as the purchase of twenty-six Rafale jets, and three Scorpene submarines are on the cards of diplomatic negotiations.

The co-development of jet engines for next-gen fighter aircraft France’s Safran and India’s DRDO is also in the pipeline and is likely to gain momentum after Macron’s visit. But one of the most significant strategic shifts happening between India and France is the greater integration of economic ties. France’s differences with its traditional western allies, and the European nations experiencing a state of economic slumber, India has a golden opportunity to further strengthen the strategic ties. By becoming a reliable partner in decoupling the dominant global supply chain of China, and towards the realization of India’s Atmanirbhar Bharat imitative of holistic self-reliance, France has the true potential to become a semi-strategic ally of India. 

The Growing Economic Potential    

Economic cooperation and expanding commercial footprints have been a priority for both India and France for more than two decades now. It is pivotal to note the fact that since 2013 till now France’s Investment has exponentially grown by eight times. France is the seventh largest foreign investor in India with an FDI of 25 billion euros, this number is consistently expected to grow as per the opinion of several industry stakeholders and experts. As a testimony to this fact, the present FDI of France in India is around USD 25 Billion. Regarding bilateral trade between India and France, the performance has exceeded expectations on an incredible scale. There was an objective set out by the Indian Government in 2018 that by 2025, the bilateral trade should reach about 15 billion dollars, but due to the robust efforts of both the government and private stakeholders, this target was achieved much earlier in 2022, which is three years before the expected target year. Currently, more than 700 French companies have set shore in India in various sectors and are flourishing in their respective commercial ventures.

As far as India is concerned, more than 170 Indian companies have set shore in France, and this number is expected to grow at a rapid pace in the next couple of years. In the last four years, more than 4,50,000 jobs have been created in India, in various sectors wherein services and manufacturing have taken the lead. France intends to further expand its manufacturing footprint by laying its hands into critical infrastructure development. With consistent support and facilitation by the Indian government in the last decade, France can be seen as actively involved in major infrastructure projects in the future. With these developments, we can clearly say that India has become a key priority market for France. It is expected that, within a decade India will occupy a major place in global supply chain management, as Indian companies are now developing promising capabilities to enhance the supply chain capabilities. 

Promising Upswings in the Strategic Ties

France understands India’s political and economic compulsions and therefore has stood by Indian interests on various occasions. After the bold decision by the Vajpayee government in 1998 to conduct the nuclear tests and publicly announce it, sanctions were imposed by the USA and UK to condemn India’s move, but France did not impose any sanctions although it did criticize the move in several international forums including the United Nations.

Earlier, in the 1980’s, with the supply of Mirage fighter jets, France had already established a promising defence partnership. With the signing of the Rafale deal in 2016, the Indian government achieved a major strategic milestone reaffirming the depth and gravity of India-France defence ties. And now, with the new deal to purchase 26 Rafale Jets almost being finalized, defence cooperation has remained the most important element in this bilateral relationship. However, with the negotiation process of the transfer of technologies (ToT) for the helicopter engines, some technical hiccups are being reported. With persistent efforts being made in the negotiation process, some of these hiccups would be resolved at the earliest. 

With France, there are certain advantages that India enjoys, which it lacks over its other Western counterparts. 

1. Capability: there is no doubt that France has advanced cutting-edge technology, especially in defence and aviation from which India has been benefitting for decades. It is well known in India’s strategic community that Mirage fighter jets played a game-changing role in winning the Kargil War. In fact, despite several suggestions and lobbying being made for the Eurofighter, F16, and F22 Raptor amongst other fighter jets, the Rafale emerged as a natural choice of the Indian government because it was found to be the best in comparison with all other fighter jets in the 4.5 generation. This is why the Indian government has shown keen interest in buying two more squadrons of Rafal from France. 
2.  Pricing: The average cost of a Rafale jet is around $115 million for a basic configuration, and with the enhancements and upgradation of technology along with the weaponry as a holistic package, it offers a much better deal compared to its competitors such as F22 and Eurofighter jets. Allocating a large amount for defence purchases in the defence budget is an arduous task, and the purchase of Rafale jets in two batches, one in 2016 for 36 jets and the ongoing negotiations presently for 26 jets is both strategically and financially an astute choice. It was wise on the part of the government to scrap the earlier deal of 126 Rafale jets, as it would have caused a huge burden on the defence budget and would have humped the fiscal consolidation goals of the government in a significant manner. 
3.  Reliability: one of the most crucial elements of France as a defence partner is consistent reliability, especially in conflict situations. They ensure that the supply of both aircraft and weaponry is both seamless and timely. The supply of spare parts is also done as per the demanded requirement, within a stipulated timeframe. The aspect of servicing and maintenance is also efficiently and effectively taken care of by the French companies. This combination of consistent supply, seamless availability of spare parts and effective service and maintenance mechanisms makes the French always reliable. Unlike its dominant Western ally United States, which is well known to chock the supply of the essential defence components in the need of the hour, the French can be relied upon in perilous situations. 

The world order has a potent risk of destabilization due to the rise of hegemonic China, which considers itself the rightful proprietor of the true Asian pivot. In this respect, the power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific is also a matter of grave concern for both India and France, as both countries are well aware that it is the increasing presence of the Chinese, which is posing a serious threat to the freedom of navigation in the region. It needs to be noted that France has about 9 million sqkm of exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in this region due to its territorial presence, whereas India has about 2 million sqkm, which is seven times less than France.

Moreover, this region is a host to almost three-fifths of the world population, being a central zone for the transit of the global supply chains and amounts to nearly sixty per cent of the global GDP, and China is well aware that destabilizing the Indo-Pacific can have huge repercussions on the global economy given the size and strategic significance of this region. It has already made some key moves with the string of pearls policy which aims to surround the Indian peninsula via the ocean routes. France’s concern here specifically happens to be the potential threat to its EEZ, by which its supply chains lead to inevitable Chinese dependency. With the Indian assurance of scaling up the scope and efficiency of its indigenous supply chain mechanisms, the Chinese monopoly can collapse over some time. Projects like Sagarmala, which aims to ramp up the country’s logistical performance, and SAGAR (Security And Growth for All in the Region) which happens to be India’s strategic vision for the Indian Ocean Region which aims to deepen economic and security cooperation, a rigorous effort is being made to overcome the challenges posed especially by virulent players like China. 

But, with the strategic conundrum of a stable, reliable and credible partnership being developed with France, India needs to keep in mind that France, is neither Russia nor the USA, as it has limited strategic influence in in shaping the global norms, either in setting or resetting the churn of great power dynamics. To put it in other words, France cannot influence the global norms like the USA. Having said this, the continuation of a robust strategic partnership with France is essential for India as France has its hard interests vested in this relationship and India has the potential to become a hard power with the French partnership. 

_{(Viswapramod is a Research Associate at the Dr Syama Prasad Mookherjee Research Foundation (SPMRF), New Delhi. Views expressed are the author’s own)}

References: 

1. _{India gives initial nod to buy French Rafale jets, submarines- Krishn Kaushik Thomson Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/authors/krishn-kaushik/}
2. _{Saint-Mézard, Isabelle. “How to Frame an Indo-French Partnership for the Security of the Indian Ocean?” THE FRENCH STRATEGY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INDO-FRENCH COOPERATION, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, 2015, pp. 9–12. JSTOR, http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep05929.7.} 
3. _{Celebrating 25 Years of the India-France Strategic Partnership: A Blossoming Alliance Ranjana Prasad: https://www.investindia.gov.in/team-india-blogs/celebrating-25-years-india-france-strategic-partnership-blossoming-alliance}
4. _{India-France Strategic Partnership: Horizon 2047 Roadmap, Trade, and Investment Posted by India Briefing by Khyati Anand https://www.india-briefing.com/news/india-france-strategic-partnership-horizon-2047-roadmap-trade-and-investment-28968.html/}

Viswapramod C

Viswapramod is a PhD Scholar at the Department of International Studies and Political Science, Christ University, Bangalore. He has an MA in International Relations. Views expressed are the author’s own.