India In the SCO: Manoeuvring the Complex Geopolitical and Geo-Strategic Challenges for Regional Stability

India’s active participation in the SCO is the key to strengthening and promoting the region’s security and prospects.
India’s growth from within the SCO from an observer status at the Asthana summit in 2017 to currently the chairperson of the SCO, reinforces the role that India can play in the bloc and also in the regional and global arena.
India must leverage its economic clout and negotiate through the SCO and initiate the expansion of the INSTC and the Chabahar port, thus bringing significant changes to the region.
Organizations like the SCO must be used by the global south to effectively navigate and address the larger geopolitical concerns.

This week it was announced that the 22^nd summit of the SCO would be held in virtual mode. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif will be attending the meeting Chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India, the SCO chairman of the year, has already invited the leaders of other SCO member states as well – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to attend the summit.

India has hosted a series of 134 meetings, including 14 ministerial-level meetings setting up the stage for the heads of the state summit to take place. Earlier, the defence ministers’ meeting was also summoned and chaired under the leadership of India, discussing issues on regional peace and security among the member countries as well as promoting and setting up an effective multilateral stage.

All of these will take place keeping in mind the joint chairmanship of India in 2 of the multilateral forums – The G20 and the SCO. This is an opportunity for India to effectively use its diplomatic capital and to ensure peace and stability in the region, not discounting the influence of China and Russia in the region. At the same time, there are some major challenges that New Delhi has to navigate through, especially in dealing with the personality of the multilateral forums like the G20 and the SCO, which is a strange beast Indeed and looks up to India‘s leadership as a guide to the future.

India’s growth from within the SCO from an observer status at the Asthana summit in 2017 to currently the chairperson of the SCO, reinforces the role that India can play in the bloc and also in the regional and global arena.

India at SCO

From the very beginning, India had crystallized upon and supported the core agenda of the SCO on matters such as terrorism, its shared commitment to maintaining regional connectivity, territorial integrity, sovereignty etc. The SCO has also been a useful platform for India to discuss matters such as security, defence, terrorism, drug trade, etc., and even committed to work to restore these issues using a democratic solution and also to help restore peace, economic security & stability in the conflict-ridden areas.

But it has to be kept in our mind that the very conception of the SCO was borne in mind as a reaction to the growing American dominance in central Asian politics after the end of the cold war. Both Moscow and Beijing wanted to preserve the economic and geopolitical opportunities in central Asia and hence created the SCO as an antithesis to NATO in the post-cold War era.

India’s entry into the SCO remains largely strategic, considering the fluctuating relationships it had with Washington in the early 2000s. Around this time, Regional Organizations like BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) were conceptualized as a blatant need and power balance between Russia and China for India’s regional Stability.

In 2018 Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi went on to coin the acronym SECURE in Qingdao, China, which has now turned out to be the theme of the SCO chairmanship, valiantly portraying the concerns of regional security and instability.

The crucial timing of the current summit in itself concerning the contemporary issues and the global security challenges that plague the world like the Russia-Ukraine War, larger obstacles on security and energy, the backlash and the Mutiny of the Infamous Russian Mercenary Group- The Wagner Private Military Company etc. Russia further seems to be caught up in tensions with its Eurasian Partners and Countries now having famously acquired the aggressor status with the Russia-Ukraine conflict hence restricting its invitation to multilateral forums.

The Criminal Court of Conduct has issued a warrant against Putin alleging war crimes not just in the recent Russia- Ukraine Conflict but even in the Crimean annexation and internally, alleging the killing of hundreds, including journalists, poisoning opponents and many others. Hence the SCO meeting will certainly be an apt arena for a strongman like Putin to once again refurbish his image that too his strongman image which lately took a hit with the Wagner mercenary coup attempt against him under the leadership of his former ally Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Challenges for India

Time and again, India’s leadership in the SCO has been aligned with its position and pragmatic personality concerning that of Russia vis-a-vis China. Because the Sino- Indian relations have been abnormal ever since the beginning and the increasing unpredictability of the Chine Troops along the LAC, it becomes one of the finest platforms for India to navigate through the SCO with sustainable strategies to Topple the China- Pakistan axis and shape India’s agenda to fight off terrorism and extremism with Russia. Our close ties with Moscow will remain the key to setting that agenda.

China has also been pushing its agenda in the SCO through its highly marketed Belt and Road Initiative in a move to strategically align itself within the whole of Central Asia and use the region as a transaction point between Asia and Europe. This has been an area of concern for India as the BRI includes POJK (Pakistan Occupied Jammu & Kashmir). India too is intently pursuing several initiatives to guarantee its energy security through the ambitious International North-South Corridor project linking the Baltic Sea with the West Indian Ports. However, Pakistan has been trying to obstruct India’s Interests by refusing to allow energy connectivity projects which run through its territory through Turkmenistan and Afghanistan.

It is here that India must leverage its economic clout and negotiate through the SCO and initiate the expansion of the INSTC and the Chabahar port, thus bringing significant changes to the region. All India needs to do is to leverage its relationship with Russia and the other CAR Countries to effectively counter the China-Pakistan Axis. It is through such manoeuvers that India can exercise its clout and position itself diplomatically for the interest and stability of the highly contested Eurasian region.

India has currently proposed The New Delhi Declaration and four other joint statements in the SCO on issues such as de-radicalization in the region, promotion of millets and, most importantly, sustainable developmental lifestyles as a key measure to address climate change and digital transformation. India is also pushing its leverage under its chairmanship in the SCO to push priorities to deal with the growing closeness of Russia towards China, which is a long-time foreign policy goal adopted under the present Government’s pragmatic foreign policy stance that aims to deal with the Sino-Russian alliance and the China- Pakistan axis both of which will have a significant impact on the potential to shape India’s future.

The SCO, like any other forum, is also facing a power change of the leadership arising from the countries of the Global South keeping up a larger share and the balance of power. In this regard, India has crucial interests in keeping the Eurasian region stable and evolving with the SCO. India’s active participation in the SCO is the key to strengthening and promoting the region’s security and prospects.

We live in the era of multilateralism, unlike many of the Multilateral Organizations that continue to be dominated and controlled by the West. Organizations like the SCO must be used by the global south to effectively navigate and address the larger geopolitical concerns. However, India’s presidency continues to be of a larger interest and comes at a critical juncture allowing it to navigate through the larger geopolitical concerns and complex geostrategic challenges to produce tangible results.

_{(Ashish is pursuing a post-graduation in International Relations. His areas of interest include defence, strategic cooperation, International affairs, Intelligence – Counter intelligence & Analytical Investigation. Opinions expressed are the author’s own)}

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