Is China Preparing for War?

• Xi Jinping’s declaring the US as its adversary, calling on private businesses to serve China’s military and strategic aims and talking of re-unification of Taiwan, hint at China preparing for war.
• New law to activate reserved forces, amendments to the Criminal Procedure Law for the Military during wartime, the Opening up of military recruitment centres across the country, upgrading air-raid shelters and emergency hospitals, and a huge increase in its defence budget – all indicate China’s preparation for war.

Chinese President Xi Jinping wove the theme of war readiness through four separate speeches that he delivered at the annual meeting of the Chinese Parliament and its top political advisory body that was held in March 2023. Out of these four speeches, one was delivered to the delegates of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, two were delivered to the National People’s Congress and one was delivered to military and paramilitary leaders. 

Xi’s speeches in the Chinese Parliament hinting preparation for war

In these speeches, he talked about geopolitics and declared the United States as its adversary, encouraged private businesses to serve China’s military and strategic aims and reiterated the unification of Taiwan with Mainland China. 

In one speech, Xi stated that “in the coming period the risks and challenges we face will only increase and become more severe”. To face these challenges and to win “New and Great Victories”, Xi warned that all Chinese need to come on common ground and think alike and vowed to correctly guide private businesses to invest in state-prioritised projects. President Xi clearly stated that the United States and its allies are the leading cause of current troubles and problems for China. He said that “Western countries headed by the United States have implemented containment from all directions, encirclement and suppression against us, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development”. 

In another speech, President Xi Jinping talked about self-sufficiency. To make China a modern society, Xi emphasised ending technical dependence on foreign economies as well as ending reliance on imports of grains and manufactured goods. 

On March 8, Xi delivered his third speech to representatives of the PLA and People’s Armed Police. In this speech, he talked about bolstering national defence and establishing reserved forces that could be tapped in wartime. He also gave the idea of a National Defence Education campaign to make the Chinese people stand behind its PLA. In his last speech on March 13, Xi talked about the unification of Taiwan with mainland China.

Looking seriously at these four speeches, we can chart out that President Xi is trying to do militarily something big. He put the idea of severe future challenges and “new and great victories”. With this nationalism card, China can not only divert its state-controlled resources towards preparing and modernising its armed forces but also can encourage private businesses to increase their focus and energy for the same purpose. However, it is very easy to force any private entity in China to work along the lines of the Communist Party of China. 

Self-sufficiency is something that can boost your capacity as well as capability, whereas, dependency on others can be catastrophic if a country is in wartime. We have solid examples of the Russia-Ukraine crisis to justify this point. Xi stated in his speech “In case we’re short of either, the international market will not protect us”. China is hugely dependent on imports of grains such as soybeans, corn, wheat, barley, sorghum etc. However, they are working to reduce import dependency. China imported 146.9 million tonnes of grain in 2022, according to grain central. 

Other measures hinting at Beijing’s preparation for war 

It is not just the speeches, but also there are different things that are accelerating the mind to conclude that Beijing is planning to do some military adventurism. Other measures that Beijing is taking are given below-

• A new law that was promulgated in December enables the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to more easily activate its reserved forces and institutionalise a system for replenishing combat troops in the event of war. 
• In February 2023, a few amendments were made to the Chinese Criminal Procedure Law for the Military during wartime, which gave the Chinese Military Commission (CMC) the power to adjust legal provisions such as jurisdiction, defence and representation, compulsory measures, case filings, investigation, prosecution, trial, and the implementation of sentences. For the time being, it is not clear how this adjustment Beijing will be using this, but we can speculate that China may be intending to use it after occupying Taiwan. Using it, CMC can justify the jurisdiction of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) over the Republic of China (Taiwan) as well as China can compel the Chinese citizens to accept and support the CPC’s course of action in wartime. 
• Opening up of National Mobilisation Offices or recruitment centres across the country in different cities such as Beijing, Fujian, Hubei, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shanghai, Sichuan, Tibet, and Wuhan. 
• Building or upgrading air-raid shelters and at least one wartime emergency hospital in different cities of Fujian Province across the strait from Taiwan. 
• Prevention of overseas IP addresses to access government websites is possibly done to not letting others know about the preparation.
• One of the most important indicators is increasing the defence budget. In 2023, Beijing increased its defence budget by 7.2 per cent. This issue has been covered in my article: “Huge Increase in China’s defence budget – What it Means for India and the World”. 

If anyone thinks that these are just normal businesses and are not taking Beijing’s changing development seriously, it will be foolish. However, for the time being, it is impossible to predict what exactly Beijing is up to but these developments are not normal as each given point is hinting that Beijing’s intent is not moving towards peace but war. 

 Threat to the existence of Taiwan 

In his speeches, President Xi called the United States and its allies an adversary but the chances of a direct face-off with the US are less. However, indirect face-off can not be ruled out. Taiwan is in the most dangerous situation as it is the least powerful among all the adversaries of China and its unification with mainland China is the most stated thing by the Chinese leaders. He equated the unification of Taiwan with national rejuvenation, which is a message to the world, especially Taiwan, that Beijing will not hesitate to take military action against Taiwan. 

Taiwan, a small island, is not capable enough to match China’s military might, but the only option that it is left with is to be prepared for Beijing’s military action. It will be in the interest of Taiwan that maintains a minimum credible deterrence against China.

_{(Ashish Keserwani has an MA in Political Science from Indra Gandhi National Open University. He is currently a Research Scholar Pursuing PhD from Amity University, Noida)}