Presidential Shift and Hope for Stability: The election of Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s President after a two-year deadlock offers hope for political stability, economic reform, and reconstruction after a devastating war with Israel.
Hezbollah’s Influence: Hezbollah remains Lebanon’s most powerful political force, leveraging alliances to shape governance while avoiding direct control, complicating Lebanon’s relationship with Western nations.
Joseph Aoun’s Commitments: The new President emphasizes combating corruption, judicial reform, and financial stabilization, aiming to rebuild global trust and reintegrate Lebanon into international systems.
Lebanon, a Mediterranean country, has successfully concluded its presidential election, with military chief Joseph Aoun elected as President in the second round of voting. Joseph Aoun is the fifth army chief to become President and the fourth consecutive army chief to hold this position. This election follows a two-year deadlock during which Lebanon was without a President after the 2022 elections. Najib Mikati served as the interim President during this period.
The presidential election comes at a crucial time for Lebanon, as the country is emerging from one of the most disastrous periods in its history. A year-long war with Israel has left the nation devastated, and the political vacuum has exacerbated the challenges faced by Lebanon. However, with the election of a new President, there is hope that the country will begin to reconstruct and recover from the aftermath of the war.
One of the major challenges Lebanon faces is its multi-religious composition. By convention, the President is always a Maronite Christian, fulfilling the same requirements as a candidate for the House of Representatives, as stipulated in Article 49 of the Lebanese Constitution.
Deep Insight into Lebanese Politics
Lebanon’s political system is deeply rooted in a sectarian power-sharing arrangement, established during its independence from France in 1943. The nation’s constitution ensures representation for all 18 recognized religious sects across key state institutions, including the government, military, and civil service. This system is most notably reflected in the allocation of the three highest government positions: the President must be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of Parliament a Shia Muslim.
This arrangement was intended to maintain balance among Lebanon’s diverse religious communities. However, the sectarian division has also been a source of tension and political instability over the years. The Taif Accord of 1989, which brought an end to the 15-year Lebanese Civil War, sought to address some of these issues by proposing reforms to limit the sectarian nature of the government structure. The agreement aimed to establish a new upper house, which would maintain the sectarian representation, while transforming the lower house into a non-sectarian body, thus reducing the direct influence of religious factions in parliamentary decisions.
Importance of President Joseph’s Victory
Geopolitical experts often assert that the crises in Lebanon arise due to political instability, and this has indeed been the case. The country has experienced war and economic problems because there were no major decision-making centers in Beirut. Now, with the presidential elections and the coming of President Joseph Aoun, there is hope for a significant victory for Lebanon. The government is expected to implement checks and balances, fostering political stability and continuing the essential political development in the country, which was previously plagued by instability.
Hezbollah in Lebanon
Hezbollah was partly established in response to Israel’s 1982 invasion and draws much of its support from the Shia Muslim population in southern Lebanon. This region, historically marginalized by the central government in Beirut, suffered heavily during the Israeli occupation, which lasted until 2000. This neglect and occupation fueled anger and resentment, creating fertile ground for Hezbollah, which positioned itself as a resistance movement.
However, it is a misconception to believe that Hezbollah’s support is confined solely to the Shia community or southern Lebanon. While it is undeniably the most powerful Shia political force, its appeal extends beyond sectarian lines. Many Lebanese, irrespective of their religious affiliations, view Hezbollah as a necessary counterbalance to Israeli aggression, given the perceived inadequacies of the Lebanese state in defending the country.
Hezbollah has evolved into Lebanon’s most powerful political organization, often operating without direct accountability. While it could theoretically seize control of the Lebanese state by force, it opts for a more strategic approach. By leveraging Lebanon’s fragile political system, Hezbollah exerts significant influence without formally assuming the responsibilities of governance. This strategy is primarily executed through the March 8 alliance, which provides Hezbollah with substantial parliamentary sway.
In the 2009 and 2018 elections, Hezbollah itself secured 13 out of 128 parliamentary seats. However, its alliance with other factions in the March 8 coalition allowed it to control 44 seats in 2009 and a majority of 72 seats in 2018. This coalition-based dominance enables Hezbollah to steer Lebanon’s political landscape without proportional representation in parliament. The situation was further highlighted in 2019 when mass protests led to the formation of a 20-member technocratic cabinet, effectively under Hezbollah’s influence, as most of its political adversaries refused to participate in the government.
President Joseph’s Commitments
After being elected President of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun stated that he would fight against corruption and work to reform the judiciary. He emphasized the need to address loopholes in Lebanon’s judicial system and vowed to focus on the Lebanese people.
Aoun’s foremost objective is to stabilize Lebanon’s financial sector, which is critical for economic revival and sustained peace. This includes resolving the ongoing banking crisis, safeguarding the rights of depositors, and ensuring robust oversight of monetary policies. Integral to this approach is renegotiating terms with holders of Lebanon’s Eurobond debt, which has been in default since 2020. Addressing this issue is vital for rebuilding global trust and reintegrating Lebanon into international financial systems.
Aoun’s strategy also emphasizes the urgent need for public sector reform. The widespread corruption in Lebanon’s government institutions is a significant factor in the country’s instability and economic collapse. Aoun advocates for increasing transparency, cutting unnecessary public spending, and streamlining government bodies.
Aoun also expressed his commitment to fighting against Israeli settlements, asserting that Israel’s military presence must be removed from Lebanon’s southern regions. He stated that Lebanon’s sovereignty must be respected by Israel, and the dispute over the Litani River should be resolved. Additionally, the President emphasized his intention to tackle the country’s economic problems, noting that Lebanon had already lost $5 billion in the war with Israel last year.
Election and Hezbollah
Lebanon, a former French colony, has traditionally maintained good ties with the Western world. However, relations between Lebanon and the West have deteriorated with the rise of Hezbollah, a Shiite group supported by Iran. Hezbollah has become a proxy of Iran, fighting for the Palestinian cause, making it an enemy of the West and Israel.
The Lebanese army, however, is distinct from Hezbollah. It is a more national force, and since President Joseph Aoun’s election, there has been growing support from Western leaders, including President Biden, as well as regional leaders like PM Bin Salman. It is expected that President Aoun will work to balance relations between the West and regional countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, his primary focus will be on reconstructing the country after the devastating war.
Reference
Aayush Pal is a freelance writer on contemporary geopolitical developments. The views expressed in his work are entirely his own.
SamvadaWorld Staff 
Shrivara Mahajan