Syria’s Civil War: The Ripple Effects on Iran, Dollar Dominance, and Regionalism

• The present conflict in Syria that began in 2011 has forever changed the political map of the Middle East.
• Iran’s strategic interests are threatened when Assad loses power as it will be harder for Iran to contain its neighbor countries.
• At the nerve centre of these geopolitical shifts is what continues to be the dollar predominance.
• Regionalism presents countries with how they can fight the dollar.

The present conflict in Syria that began in 2011 has forever changed the political map of the Middle East. As the war rolls on, Syria’s failure means not only the increased risk to its integrity but also to Iran’s regime, to which the Syrian conflict is a big investment in the form of support for Bashar al-Assad. In this article, the writer looks at the triumvirate of pressures that led to the collapse of Syria: regional influence, domestic politics, and global pressure and he analyses the eventual result for Iran, besides exploring how regionalism is rising as a response to dollar imperialism. This undesirable trend escalated to become an analysis deteriorating situation in Syria.

They can all be attributed to internal unrest resulting in internal conflict and other forces from outside the country. The use of force by the Assad regime on protesters led to the outbreak of protest that later led to the civil war. While fighting in the conflict, various opposing sides appeared, some of them were Kurdish forces, Islamist groups, and foreign militias that fought for control over certain territories. Since late 2024, the Assad Central authority has been reduced; rebels reclaimed peripheral territories including some districts in Damascus and Aleppo.

As much as this conflict is bad, the humanitarian cost of this conflict is staggering. Around 12 million people have been displaced within the country or are refugees in neighbouring countries in Europe. Due to a continued conflict, the number of killed people has been estimated at around 0.5 to 1.5 million. This instability not only affected Syrian but also posed great risks to security in the region as well.

Iran’s Strategic Interests Take a Hit!

Iran has always considered Syria as an important partner in its overall anti-American containment policy and patronizing of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Over time, the Iranian regime has been supporting Assad financially and militarily. Nevertheless, Iran’s strategic interests are threatened when Assad loses power as it will be harder for Iran to contain its neighbor countries.

That is why the potential loss of Syria can weaken Iranian supply deliveries to Hezbollah and limit Iran’s power in the region. Moreover, it would enrage Sunni Arab states that are already wary of Iran’s growing influence and affect the balance of power between them in the region. Iran’s unflinching support for Assad has also incited global condemnation and sanctions against Tehran thus resulting in Iran’s continued isolation on the international scene.

The Role of Dollar Dominance

However, at the nerve centre of these geopolitical shifts is what continues to be the dollar predominance. Since the end of the Second World War, the U.S. dollar has been adopted as the world’s reserve currency helping to underpin the global economy. However, this dominance presents enormous implications to the global countries that tend to defy America’s foreign policies.

Geopolitical analyst Dr. Ankit Shah’s “Two Buckets Theory” gives an understanding of the classification of countries regarding their affiliation towards the U.S. In this arrangement, one set of countries gets money and protection – essentially, they are referred to as ‘allies,’ while the other is punished with economic embargoes and political isolation – and is painted as ‘wrongdoers’ or ‘pariahs.’ They do this in a way that splits neighbouring countries into two distinct camps, which engenders conflict.

For instance, after the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022 several rounds of sanctions were placed on Moscow whereas significant amounts of military supplies were supplied to Ukraine. Likewise, Iran has been bound by nearly total sanctions since 2018, while Persian Gulf countries were provided with a series of arms deals by the U.S., which only aggravates the division in the region.

Regionalism: A Cure to Dollar Hegemony

In response to these dynamics, it has emerged that regionalism may be useful in helping nations counter the domineering effect of the dollar. She explained that countries are gradually avoiding the dollar to reduce the implications of the American sanctions as a way of avoiding the USA financial systems.

Some new trends indicate that the regional blocs are slowly forming as nations put their side interest ahead of following American policies. For instance, World powers such as China extended their relations with Middle Eastern countries through projects like the BRI, besides, Extended financial activities that do not go through Western banking systems.

Further, Russia and Iran are finding means to promote trade relations with use of local currency payment or the use of barter trade agreement formations. This trend towards regionalism may reverse some of the artificial hotspots that were developed during previous decades under dollar dominance.

Conclusion

Syrian case can be viewed as an example of changes in geopolitics that undermine the existing hierarchy in Middle Eastern states. With the promise of the end of Assad, Iran’s influence is steadily declining, and regionalism presents countries with how they can fight the dollar.

Scholars seeking to explain future events in Syria, and indeed the broader context of the Middle East, must consider these various themes. The shifting dynamics show that cooperation is significant as nations balance themselves in systems of competition for dominance in so-called economic warfare.

For the future, it is easy to see that the role of Syria will not just be confined to the region and the future equations of this area will also continue to set the tone for the relations and hostility between rising world powers. The interdependency between regionalism and dollar supremacy will continue to define the character of international politics as states look for novel strategies to overcome instabilities and assert independence within a newly emerging multipolar world order.

References:

1. _{Why Iranian Entrenchment in Southern Syria Worries Neighboring Countries – https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/03/why-iranian-entrenchment-in-southern-syria-worries-neighboring-countries?lang=en}
2. _{Analysis: Collapse of Syria’s Assad is a blow to Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’-https://apnews.com/article/iran-mideast-proxy-forces-syria-analysis-c853bf613a6d6af7f6aa99b2e60984f8}
3. _{BHARAT (India) for BRICS – A Pathway to Liberate the World- https://indiafoundation.in/articles-and-commentaries/bharat-india-for-brics-a-pathway-to-liberate-the-world/}

Parag Gilada

Parag is pursuing his master’s at the Jindal School of International Affairs. Views expressed are the author’s own.