The Re-emergence of the Cold War?

With China and pro-Russian organisations composed of former Soviet republics on one hand and NATO and many European countries on the other, we may be witnessing the re-emergence of the cold war as neither side is showing any signs of backing down.

The war between Russia and Ukraine that has been going on since 2014 has in a significant sense divided the world into two separate ideologies. The ones that support the Russian invasion, like Belarus which is Russia’s biggest supporter, have allowed Russian troops to enter its territories while other countries like Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Kyrgyzstan have supported Russia’s agenda. On the other hand, the US has shown fierce support for Ukraine and all the NATO members are standing in support of Ukraine and have condemned Russia’s actions. This has led to a question in the minds of many: Is this the re-emergence of the Cold War? In this article, we will closely examine the same.

The organizations which encounter a strong presence of Russia, mainly post-soviet countries are naturally expected to be seen in support of the Russian invasion. From this view, the Eurasian Economic Union is supporting Russia only because anything less than full support might have dire consequences for these countries. Among the countries that are part of The Collective Security Treaty Organization which is made up of mainly post-soviet nations, only Belarus is standing in full support of Russia. Another organisation standing in support of Russia is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China and Russia have similar roots in communism and share a good relationship. Reports show that Beijing was informed before the Russia-Ukraine war began and Moscow was promised a ‘helping hand’ in the wake of the NATO sanctions.¹

NATO vs CSTO-EAEU-SCO

CSTO

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has significant differences in its basic ideologies and requirements as compared to the North Atlantic Treaty Organizations. One example of significance to the war is that, unlike NATO which demands all the members of the organization to support an ally during a war, CSTO does not interfere in the internal choices of the member countries. There are talks that Putin may prolong the war through CSTO in the region if Crimea is attacked in any way, so that makes CSTO largely look like an opponent which would attack at the call of Putin to NATO but much weaker than the Warsaw Pact seen forming during the Cold War.²

EAEU

The formation of the Eurasian Economic Union is seen more as a way for Russia to capture the geopolitical hold that it seems to have lost due to the Russia-Ukraine war. The plans for the organization are to replicate a Eurasian form of the European Union which would give economic independence to the Eurasian countries from the Western countries. But due to Russia’s limited interest in working on the ambitions of the EAEU and heightened interest in circumventing NATO sanctions, the EAEU members are facing problems. In the wake of getting freedom from the West, the EAEU members have found themselves facing extra losses due to the sanctions placed on Russia.³

SCO

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization which began as the ‘Shanghai Five’ has been seen as a more inviting and non-ideological eastern counterpart of NATO. One of the main founding members of SCO, China has long been a supporter of Russia. But for steady and sustainable growth, SCO can’t afford to get into a power struggle with the West. Though for China prolonging the war is beneficial in two aspects as it will create a concrete barrier between Russia and the West and also allows China to steadily move towards its goal of acquiring Taiwan as its territory.⁴

Conclusion

The past has seen ideological differences between Russia and the USA. Russia for the most part fears that it is losing control in the region and is becoming weaker due to Ukraine joining NATO. Putin has been known to say that the USA is ‘parking missiles on our porch’ and in this case, Russia would certainly not back down.

In the wake of the war, India has been diplomatic in its approach and maintains strategic autonomy with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar making it clear that ‘Europe’s problems are not the world’s problems’. China on the other hand is a shrewd player and is working to prolong the war. The actions of all the countries are unpredictable to a large extent and we can only speculate on what comes next.

_{(Ananya Dubey is a Research Sholar at the Department of IRP and PP, St. Joseph’s University, Bengaluru)}