- The Economic Survey projects that India will register a growth rate of 7.4 per cent in the financial year 2026.
- The Survey argues that India must focus on building resilience, innovating relentlessly, and staying the course towards Viksit Bharat.
- In a more cautionary assessment, the Economic Survey highlights a 10 to 20 per cent probability of a crisis larger than the 2008 global financial crisis.
The Economic Survey for the year 2026 has been released and tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. It has been authored by the Chief Economic Advisor of the Government of India, Dr Anantha Nageswaran. The Economic Survey projects that India will register a growth rate of 7.4 per cent in the financial year 2026. This growth is expected to be driven by strong investment momentum and a manufacturing surge taking place across the country.
The Survey specifically mentions that the global environment is being reshaped by geopolitical realignments, which will influence investment flows, supply chains, and growth trajectories for years to come. Against this global backdrop, the Survey argues that India must focus on building resilience, innovating relentlessly, and staying the course towards Viksit Bharat.
India has witnessed tremendous growth because of its geopolitical capacity. The current geopolitical environment is highly complex, with global uncertainty becoming common, international contention intensifying, and power projection turning more aggressive. Countries have begun exerting external pressure and weaponising their economies through tariffs, as seen in the case of the United States of America. The United States has targeted India over its imports of Russian oil, even though this decision was taken purely in India’s national interest. India’s geopolitical capacity allows it to manage such challenges. India is able to align with multiple countries, and when problems emerge from the United States of America, India counters them by strengthening relationships with other key countries. Free trade agreements with the European Union, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Oman reflect this strategic approach.
Additionally, the Survey projects a growth rate of 6.8 per cent to 7.2 per cent for the financial year 2027. It highlights that India’s average growth over the last two years has increased significantly. The Survey attributes this performance primarily to a strong supply of labour and sustained capital inflows, identifying these as the two key factors of production supporting India’s growth story.
The Economic Survey also notes that for India, global conditions translate more into uncertainty rather than immediate macroeconomic stress. Slow growth in key trading partnerstariff-induceded disruptions to trade, and global volatility are hampering economic momentum. However, the Survey points out that India remains relatively more insulated from global stress due to the domestic reforms that have been undertaken in recent years.
An extensive and detailed economic assessment in the Survey appreciates reforms such as the Production Linked Incentive scheme, FDI liberalisation, and logistics sector reforms. These measures are described as acting as buffers against tremors emerging in international markets. On this basis, the Survey positions India in a comparatively stronger position to withstand global economic challenges.
At the same time, the Survey makes an important observation on India’s macroeconomic trajectory. It notes that India’s strongest macroeconomic performance in decades has coincided with a global system that no longer adequately rewards macroeconomic discipline and success.
The Survey also comments on the depreciation of the rupee, stating that a weaker rupee does not pose a severe threat to India due to the presence of low inflation. However, it acknowledges that currency weakness can cause investors to pause and reassess risk.
In a more cautionary assessment, the Economic Survey highlights a 10 to 20 per cent probability of a crisis larger than the 2008 global financial crisis. It suggests that disruptions in global financial transactions and geopolitical crises may not operate independently, but could interact simultaneously to create systemic risks.
As the Survey discusses, the global challenges are intensifying, and in this context, India’s long-term reform-driven and resilience-focused approach is essential for navigating global uncertainty. This year’s Economic Survey strongly certifies that India’s direction has been appropriate. India is not only increasing domestic consumption through sustained domestic reforms but is also working to create a resilient economic model that supports the overall growth and stability of the Indian economy.
Aayush Pal is a freelance writer on contemporary geopolitical developments. The views expressed in his work are entirely his own.
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