India is in a unique position to urge Tehran and Tel Aviv to show restraint and address the current situation through dialogue. India’s approach towards dealing with the situation has been measured and balanced, keeping in mind that there is a lot at stake for New Delhi, and the sooner the conflict ends, the better for India.
After years of rhetoric, it was time for action. Israel decided to carry out aerial attacks on the Shia majority in Iran. In well-calibrated attacks, the Israeli forces struck military establishments in Iran last week and took out several top Iranian military officials in the process. The Iranians retaliated, but have not been able to do too much damage.
Israel’s claims and actions suggest that Tel Aviv is in it for the long haul. After weakening all its foes in its neighbourhood, Israel has its tail up. A beleaguered, sanction-hit Iran is no match for Israel’s technical military prowess.
The world has called for both sides to show restraint, but walking away now will be a slap in the face for Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. So, what is the endgame as far as Israel is concerned? Regime change? Well, history tells us that no regime anywhere in the world has changed with air strikes. Israel will have to change the game plan if that is to happen and up the ante.
The Israeli military is trying hard to neutralise Iran’s air force and air defence system. If that is achieved, it can be seen as an achievement for Israel.
The other strongly stated goal is to neutralise Iran’s nuclear program. This seems impossible without the help of the US. Iran’s most heavily fortified nuclear site, Fordo, is located deep inside a mountain near Tehran. Only the US military has the capability of reaching it. This goal also seems impossible without the direct intervention of the US. It is for this reason that Israel has been eager to get the US involved in the conflict.
Days of aerial bombardment have proved that Iran doesn’t have the stomach for a long-protracted conflict. Hence, reaching out to the West seems like the best bet at the moment. Iran’s allies are busy doing lip service and aren’t keen to get directly involved. Unlike Pakistan, direct involvement in this conflict means taking on Washington, which Turkey, Russia and China want to avoid.
The US is the only country that can keep Israel at bay and work out some kind of a deal, but expect the terms to be heavily in favour of Washington. This kind of a deal suits Trump’s style perfectly.
What’s in it for Israel? If they can walk away knowing that a significant blow has been dealt to Tehran’s nuclear plans, it will be a big win for them. Israel is very clear that it doesn’t want anyone with nuclear capability in its neighbourhood.
This is where the stakes are high for India as well. India has traditionally had strong ties with Iran. We are surrounded by nuclear states at our northern borders, and it is in our best interest not to have another nuclear state in our backyard.
The US is the only country that can keep Israel at bay and work out some kind of a deal, but expect the terms to be heavily in favour of Washington.
The conflict brings with it other challenges as well. Oil prices need to be watched. There hasn’t been a significant rise in oil prices yet, as Iran only exports 4% of the world’s oil and most of it to China, but a long-drawn conflict in the region will drive up oil prices. Most of India’s oil and trade travels through the Strait of Hormuz; if tensions escalate, it will have an impact on trade routes, thereby disrupting supply chains and hindering trade for India.
India is both in a good and tricky place. New Delhi has warm ties with both Israel and Iran. In a loose sense, we can say Israel is to India what China is to Pakistan – an all-weather friend. Ties have only seen an upsurge over the last decade. Israel is the only country that came out fully in support of ‘Operation Sindoor’ and stated that India has the right to neutralise terrorists anywhere. Israel, over the years, has strongly supported India in all its endeavours. The bilateral relationship has gone from strength to strength.
Iran, on the other hand, is an old friend, with ties dating back centuries. Despite US sanctions, India has managed to maintain warm ties with Tehran. India and Iran have continued their efforts to further develop the Chabahar port despite the potential threat from the US administration. The capacity of the port is set to be expanded and connected with Iran’s railway network by 2026. There was a high-level visit by Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi to New Delhi last week, and he met EAM S. Jaishankar. Both sides expressed confidence that the meeting would give momentum to the bilateral partnership. It is also worth mentioning that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s ancestors are from Uttar Pradesh.
Most of India’s oil and trade travels through the Strait of Hormuz; if tensions escalate, it will have an impact on trade routes, thereby disrupting supply chains and hindering trade for India.
Even after Operation Sindoor, Iran took a stand similar to our other allies and called for both sides to show restraint, just like India has done with the current conflict between Iran and Israel.
India is in a unique position to urge Tehran and Tel Aviv to show restraint and address the current situation through dialogue. India’s approach towards dealing with the situation has been measured and balanced, keeping in mind that there is a lot at stake for New Delhi, and the sooner the conflict ends, the better for India.
Israel will gain nothing if the war ends now without an agreement. The agenda is clear as far as Israel is concerned – weaken Iran’s nuclear capabilities or destroy it completely. That is possible only if the US gets involved in some way, either through a direct war, which Trump’s supporters don’t want or through a diplomatic arrangement with a new agreement.
Frank is a senior journalist and the host of ‘Viewpoint’ on Sansad TV. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Shashank Pandey 
Pranav S 
Dhruv Ashok