Pezeshkian’s Rule in Iran: A Potential for Reform Amidst Deep-Seated Challenges

• Masoud Pezeshkian has promised reform both at the domestic and international levels. 
• Iranian foreign policy in West Asia is completely controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 
• Iran can potentially become very crucial for the energy security of India if Iranian oil is allowed to come into the international market. 

Iran has got the successor of President Raisi after he lost his life in a helicopter crash in May this year. A cardiac surgeon and a lawmaker since 2008, Masoud Pezeshkian is the new president.  Iran has traditionally been very active in the geopolitics of West Asia, and what happens in Iran affects a substantial number of countries all across the globe hence it becomes important to keep an eye on the developments taking place. At the top of Iran’s political structure lies the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Unlike any other country, the president in Iran is the second-ranked official after him. Khamenei has been at the helm of power since 1989 and this is the reason why key policies of the regime have remained consistent throughout different presidencies of different presidents having different political leanings.

This presidential election witnessed one of the lowest voter turnouts of 40%. This in itself reflects the sentiment among the Iranian public regarding the significance of their votes. Masoud Pezeshkian has promised reform both at the domestic and international levels. One of the biggest headlines coming out of Iran in the last couple of years has been of their nuclear enrichment programme, protests after Mahsa Amini died in custody of so-called moral police or anti-Israel rhetoric. Pezeshkian has promised changes on these fronts. In a way, he intends to carry forward the policies of Hassan Rouhani that were practised in the initial years of his presidency.

ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

Iran is one of the most highly sanctioned countries in the world. It stands only second to Russia in terms of the number of sanctions. The Iranian economy is bleeding and the inflation rate is expected to be around 37.5%. The head of the Union of Veteran Workers, Hassan Sadeghi has predicted a 67% inflation rate in coming years. Pezeshkian’s predecessor Ebrahim Raisi’s policies and hardline approach against the West only worsened the economic conditions. So Masoud’s priority would be to find some sort of cooperation with the West as they seek relaxation in sanctions. West seems disinterested and non-enthusiastic about any presidential change.

IRAN-RUSSIA-CHINA NEXUS

Iran in the last few years has deepened its ties with Russia and China. Amidst sanctions, on 27^th March 2021, Iran and China signed a 25-year cooperation program or a comprehensive strategic partnership. Under this deal, China would be investing anywhere from $400 billion to $600 billion in Iran. The common thread that joins these countries is their anti-west stance and challenge to the “Western Hegemony”. These countries cooperate in multilateral forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS.

Iran is one of the most highly sanctioned countries in the world. Pezeshkian’s predecessor Ebrahim Raisi’s policies and hardline approach against the West only worsened the economic conditions.

Iran has significantly enhanced its ties with the Russian Federation, which is its chief arms supplier. Both of these countries are military allies in the Syria and Iraq conflict. Their interest converges in the Caucasus region. Russia and China to some degree toe anti-West lines in the Gaza conflict that is in Iranian interest.

This cooperation is expected to continue. It would be naïve to believe that Pezeshkian can bring any radical change in the foreign policy that he promised to make more pragmatic.

WEST ASIA

Iranian foreign policy in West Asia is completely controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and it is very clear that there is no policy shift there. Iranian proxies keep their relevance intact in the region. Iran has competition with Saudi Arabia for the leadership of the Muslim world. In recent years, there has been some rapprochement between them. We can expect some engagements but there will not be any significant change.

NUCLEAR DEAL

There is one area where there can be some development and that happens to be the nuclear deal that was signed under the Obama administration and President Rouhani. Masoud Pezeshkian is showing some flexibility and there are some real possibilities of this taking place again. One of Biden’s election promises in the 2020 presidential run was to reinstate the nuclear deal with Iran that was scrapped by the Trump administration. And before the 2024 elections, it stands as a good opportunity for Democrats too to engage with the new Iranian administration and score some foreign policy goals. But it also needs to be understood that the background of Benjamin Netanyahu keeping the war going even expanding it to Hezbollah in Lebanon casts doubt on engagements with Iran. It is a much better way to limit Iranian nuclear enrichment programmes in exchange for some relaxation in sanctions.

RELATIONS WITH INDIA

Indo-Iran relations seem to remain good and economic cooperation is expected to grow. Iran remains a key to INSTC (International North-south Transport Corridor) that joins St. Petersburg to Mumbai. It reduces the cost by one-third and time by two-fifths. INSTC is one of the few routes that are out of the influence of the Western region and China’s political sphere. India is invested in Iranian ports and railways. India needs to get access to Central Asia and Afghanistan. Iran can potentially become very crucial for the energy security of India if Iranian oil is allowed to come into the international market. 

HUMAN RIGHTS

President Pezeshkian had raised questions about the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody. Iran is crying out for social reforms. There should be some relaxation when it comes to restrictions on civil liberties. It would be very difficult for the Iranian administration to engage with the world when at home women’s rights are suppressed, and their participation in the workforce and sports are discouraged. It must be noted that the world is not engaging with Taliban-led Afghanistan because of similar domestic issues. So, President Pezeshkian has to work in this domain to not let himself get isolated from a certain section of the world.

President Pezeshkian had raised questions about the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody.

The problem with the new Iranian President is that he is not the one who holds the ultimate power to make or break policies. It is the Supreme Leader and this has been something that common Iranians feel and thus it witnessed one of the lowest voter turnouts. Still, a reformist President in Iran is relatively good for the region. Iran is an important power and its stability is in everyone’s interest.   

_{(Vaibhav Pal is pursuing a master’s in International relations in the Department of Politics and International Relations. His areas of interest include Asian politics,  regional organizations,  terrorism and counter-terrorism. Views expressed are the author’s own)}

Vaibhav Pal