- When India joined the SCO, it hoped to balance the grouping and convey the message that Central Asia is not just an extended neighbourhood but an extended family.
- One of the reasons Prime Minister Modi gave the SCO summit a miss was the low expectations and the organisation gradually becoming an anti-west grouping.
- Until and unless the guiding principles and objectives of the SCO are followed in their full spirit, expecting any substantial progress will remain just a wish and not a plan.
Astana hosted the SCO summit on 4 July 2024 marking a significant development in this Eurasian Grouping. It is interesting to know that Astana was formerly known as Akmola, which points “white grave”. SCO since its inception is known for the divergent interests and disagreements among the member states. All the key players have their distinct approaches. This has been criticized for being too heavily dominated by China. Despite such differences, SCO is still active not because it is functioning well but because it needs to be there. Tussle can be understood by the conflicts that exist between India and China over border issues like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and archrivals India and Pakistan. But there is something that is beyond these traditional and long conflicts and that is the tussle for the influence between China and Russia.
Russian and Chinese “unlimited Cooperation” seems to be limited in the Central Asian part of the world. This region has traditionally been the Russian backyard but China is making significant inroads. China is one of the largest trade partners of five Central Asian states. The share of trade of these five countries with China varies from 14% to 36%. On the other hand, Russia calls Central Asia its exclusive sphere of influence. She has been a net security guarantor and operates through the Central Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) which happens to be a political and military alliance of six post-soviet states that includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan.
However, CSTO faces an existential crisis after doing nothing for Armenia during its conflict with Azerbaijan. In addition, as Russia is engaged in its conflict with Ukraine and the void that Russia is leaving, Beijing intends to fill that. In the bloody conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, Russia largely remained neutral and that didn’t go well with the central Asian states and that raised a question mark on the ability of the Russian state to guarantee their security.
Belarus Joins SCO
In the backdrop of such a scenario, it is easy to understand the entry of Belarus as the 10th member of the organization. By having Belarus, Russia strengthens its position as a key player in the political, economic and security affairs of the organization. Just as Pakistan toes Chinese lines, in the same manner, Belarus toes Russian stance. Previously, Russia had played a significant role in encouraging India to join SCO. One of the intentions behind this was to curb the growing influence of China in the organization and the gradual weakening Russian position made it involve other payers like India, Iran and Belarus in SCO where Chinese influence can be lowered. The balance of power in SCO was maintained until there was stronger Russia, Kazakhstan and India but with Russia becoming a junior partner to China, this balance has slightly tilted in Chinese favour.
However, the addition of Belarus in SCO adds to the traditional criticism. This grouping is often criticized for its lack of democratic credentials and its engagement with autocratic regimes. India stands as the only country in the grouping that can flaunt its democratic structure.
Paradoxes of SCO
One of the paradoxes of SCO is that its core value includes a “commitment to pursue sovereign and independent policies”. Chinese and Russian objection to the Quadrilateral alliance is the paradox here. This tussle is not just about China and Russia but India is also a prominent actor. India consistently raises the issue of terrorism, and it is one of the goals and objectives of SCO. The effectiveness in this domain can be understood by the presence of Pakistan which has time and again proved its close ties with terrorist groups, be it Osama bin Laden or its NSA having tea in Kabul after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.
Military cooperation and intelligence sharing are also an important goal in a group. However, when there is an accumulation of a large number of forces at the border, trust is not the way to do business with the Chinese. On the other hand, Kyrgyz and Tajik forces often clash with each other at the border.
Some issues dominate SCO meetings year after year and that remains the conversation about the multipolar world. There are specific interests of countries like India, China and Russia that keep the organization moving and also the question of whether is India isolated in SCO. This year’s summit is a witness to such phenomena.
President Xi Jinping came up with his motto of “joining hands to build a more beautiful home of SCO”. He was there with five proposals that include solidarity and mutual trust, a security cooperation mechanism where they counter terrorism and encourage Afghanistan to embark on the path of peace and development. The third proposal is the promotion of his pet project of BRI and the fourth and fifth are good neighbourly ties, justice, and fairness.
Vladimir Putin along with Central Asian states talks about an “equal and orderly multipolar world and to make global governance more just and equitable”. It also guarantees energy security and vouches for an increase in business. However, it is tough to work with countries that are so heavily sanctioned and are currently engaged in conflicts.
PM Modi snubbed the meeting of the head of the government instead foreign Minister, Dr. Jaishankar, represented India. One of the reasons of Prime Minister gave it a miss is because of very low expectations and gradually becoming an anti-west grouping. Dr Jaishankar in the summit reiterated India’s position on countering terrorism in any form or manifestation. This was directed towards Pakistan where the foreign minister indirectly accused them of terror financing and recruitment. He also talked about geo-economics and having reliable, multiple supply chains as a lesson learnt from COVID-19. He also talked about respecting territorial integrity and sovereignty. Dr Jaishankar expressed India’s concerns regarding the Afghan situation and voiced reforms at multilateral forums like the UN.
Is India Isolated in the SCO?
The basis of this question is because of the Russian position. The scenario in which India joined SCO was completely different from what it is now. It hoped to balance the grouping and convey the message that Central Asia is not just an extended neighbourhood but an extended family. It was a group where India could project its relevance beyond the boundaries of Central Asia. No tangible outcomes were ever expected from it. This in itself answers the question that Indian leadership prefers to attend G7 meetings rather than the SCO summit. India itself is gradually limiting its engagement with SCO and communicating with Central Asian partners bilaterally. Through the India-Central Asia summit that has been held since 2022 and also with partners like Iran and Armenia India prefers bilateral relations.
SCO is not very promising now. Until and unless the guiding principles or goals and objectives are followed in their full spirit, expecting any substantial progress will remain just a wish and not a plan.
(Vaibhav Pal is a postgraduate pursuing a master’s in International Relations at the Department of Politics and International Studies, Pondicherry University. His area of interest includes Regional Organizations, Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism.)
Parag Gilada 
Avinash Krishna