- The geopolitical consequences of the U.S. withdrawal are particularly felt globally in platforms such as UNFCCC and the G20, where American leadership had played a central role in driving consensus.
- The United States withdrawal from the Paris Accord provided room for China to lead international climate diplomacy and put China at the top of the international climate agenda.
- As a developing nation, India was more concerned with access to money and technology transfer to achieve its climate goals, particularly on adaptation and mitigation.
The United States pulling out of the Paris Agreement by then-President Donald Trump in 2017 was a significant turn in global climate diplomacy. By pulling out of the U.S.’s commitment to the historic climate deal, the action not only challenged the global effort against climate change but also altered the game of international geopolitics. While the Biden administration rejoined the Paris Agreement in 2021, the impact of the U.S. pullout during the Trump 2.0 administration continues to echo across global political and environmental landscapes.
The U.S. Withdrawal and Its Immediate Geopolitical Impact
The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017 created a vacuum in climate leadership globally since the U.S. had been a central player in negotiating the agreement. The withdrawal weakened the multilateral response to fighting climate change, an issue that demands collective global action. The move particularly isolated U.S. allies such as the European Union (EU), which had invested heavily in climate diplomacy and had considered the U.S. a central partner in the war against climate change. European leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel criticized the withdrawal, with Macron going as far as to launch a “Make Our Planet Great Again” initiative to attract climate scientists and researchers who were frustrated with Trump’s policies.
The geopolitical consequences of the U.S. withdrawal are particularly felt globally in such platforms as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the G20, where American leadership had played a central role in driving consensus. Without the U.S. in the Paris Agreement, China and the EU had more influence in shaping global action on climate change, with China becoming a climate change mitigation and transition to renewable energy leader. The move was part of a broader realignment of global climate diplomacy, where the traditional climate leaders such as the U.S. lost influence to emerging powers such as China and the EU.
Impact on Global Climate Governance
The U.S. withdrawal firmly sent the message to the world that climate change was not a priority for the Trump administration. This not only undercut the shared goal of the Paris Agreement to keep global warming well below 2°C but also undercut global efforts to mobilize climate adaptation and mitigation financing in developing countries. The U.S. has been a major contributor to the Green Climate Fund, which funds the most vulnerable countries in addressing the impacts of climate change. The absence of U.S. funding under the Trump administration threatened the financial resources for climate action in the Global South.
Developing countries, especially those in Africa, South Asia, and Latin America, suffered the most from this loss. Most of these countries rely on international climate financing to adapt to the devastating impacts of climate change, such as sea-level rise, droughts, and extreme weather events. The U.S. withdrawal created a massive gap in climate finance, with countries like India and Brazil looking to China and the EU for leadership in the fight against climate change.
The Re-Engagement of the U.S. under Biden: Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics
The U.S. re-entry into the Paris Agreement under President Joe Biden in 2021 was a turning point in international climate diplomacy. Biden’s commitment to re-enter the agreement was a comeback to climate action and underscored the value of multilateralism in the international climate crisis. The action was greeted by world leaders and green activists as a welcome return of the U.S. to the forefront of the battle against climate change.
But the re-entry of the U.S. has not been without its problems. The withdrawal under the Trump administration had eroded confidence in the U.S.’s long-term commitment to climate action, and there were fears that future administrations would roll back climate action again. To address this, the Biden administration was keen to mainstream climate action in its foreign policy, including through actions such as the Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative, which seeks to finance infrastructure development in the Global South based on sustainable and green growth.
However, with President Donald Trump signing an executive order in January, soon after he took over the reins for the second time, directing the United States to again withdraw from the landmark Paris Climate Agreement, has dealt a blow to worldwide efforts to combat global warming and once again distancing the U.S. from its closest allies.
Shifting Power Dynamics and the Role of China and India
The United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Accord provided room for China to lead international climate diplomacy. China’s goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 and global leadership in investing in renewable energy put China at the top of the international climate agenda. China’s move was welcomed, but there was still apprehension over the continued consumption of coal, with the demand for more responsibility for its climate pledges.
India, another climate driver of global climate negotiations, grappled with the same. As a developing nation, India was more concerned with access to money and technology transfer to achieve its climate goals, particularly on adaptation and mitigation. India’s growing clean energy sector has made it a global clean energy driver. India, however, took its place on the climate agenda based on its own development priorities and was reluctant to commit to emissions reduction unless accompanied by commensurate financial and technical support.
Conclusion
The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under Trump 2.0 has far-reaching geopolitical implications, reshaping global power dynamics and altering the trajectory of international climate diplomacy. While the U.S. re-engagement under President Biden was a welcome development, it is clear that the climate crisis requires sustained and cooperative global efforts. The geopolitical landscape of climate diplomacy has shifted, with China, the EU, and emerging economies like India playing more prominent roles. Ultimately, the success of global climate governance will depend on the ability of these players to collaborate effectively and ensure that climate action remains a priority on the international stage.
References:
- Trump signs executive order directing U.S. withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement — again: https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-to-withdraw-from-paris-climate-agreement-white-house-says/article69121146.ece
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Shashank is a Master’s student in Diplomacy, Law, and Business at O.P. Jindal Global University. He is also a researcher and coordinator at the Center for Global South and the Center for Southeast Asian Studies. His research interests include Southeast Asia, Chinese foreign policy, India’s Act East Policy, and global security dynamics. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Lakshmi Karlekar 
Aayush Pal 
Balaji Subramanian