- Intelligence sources have claimed that Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) has been receiving funding from across the border, particularly from Pakistan’s ISI with a clear objective of effecting a regime change and installing a pro-JeI government, which is inclined towards Islamist politics.
- Sheikh Hasina has accused the US of trying to carve a Christian nation in Bangladesh and also forcing her to accept their demand for a military base on St. Martin’s island.
- China’s central power seeks a regime in Dhaka aligned with Pakistan as it is strategically helpful for operationalizing its plans in South Asia, especially against India.
- The advancement of JeI and its possible cooperation with Pakistan will cause the escalation of militancy and provocations in the region and become a new threat to India.
The current unrest has sparked large-scale demonstrations against Sheikh Hasina’s government of Bangladesh due to multiple local issues combined with foreign factors playing a vital role resulting in Sheikh Hasina moving out of Dhaka to New Delhi in seek of Political Asylum. This article looks at the actors that forced the protests, the entities that benefited from unrest, and the geopolitical game involving JeI, Pakistan, the US, and China, among other effects on the region’s stability.
Forces behind the Protests
Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI)
The Jamaat-e-Islami party is one of the main political organizations in Bangladesh and was very active in the current protests. Previously, JeI has acted more as an opposition party to the Awami League regime where it mobilizes people’s disgruntlement. The policies of the party are mostly appealing to those part of the population who clamour against the secularism of Hasina’s government. To date, intelligence sources have claimed that JeI has been receiving funding from across the border, particularly from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) with a clear objective of effecting a regime change and installing a pro-JeI government, which is inclined towards Islamist politics.[1]
Role of Pakistan
Pakistani’s role in the unrest is complex in the following ways. The ISI has been also blamed for supporting JeI by providing them with funds and planning to topple the Sheikh Hasina government. This backing is mainly viewed within the context of efforts to confront India’s increasing clout in the region. According to intelligence information, JeI has been considered by Pakistan as an instrument in building a political atmosphere in Pakistan that is unfavourable to India, which adds that Islamabad has been always in conflict with New Delhi.[2]
The United States and the Allegations of a Christian Agenda
Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has accused the United States of trying to build a Christian nation in Bangladesh through various measures and also forcing her to accept their demand for a military base on St. Martin’s island. These claims can be seen as expressing her government’s worries about Western presence in the region, especially on issues to do with human rights and democracy. Other opinions say that the US has always supported regimes, which are friendly to its interests, regardless of the desire of the country’s people. Thus, Hasina as the continuing narrative of the political strategy of a foreign agenda mobilizes nationalist sentiment against perceived foreign threat.
China’s Strategic Interests
China also has something to do with this situation as one of the most influential countries in the world. Sustaining the contest in Bangladesh, Beijing has always sought to place a favourable government in power by bribing and blackmailing its leaders into submission and sometimes using Pakistan. In the context of South Asian geopolitics, China’s central power seeks a regime in Dhaka aligned with Pakistan as it is strategically helpful for operationalizing its plans in South Asia, especially against India. This has brought out the aspect that Chinese entities have been supporting JeI to complicate the political aspect of Bangladesh. This support is considered under China’s Belt and Road project, China wants to establish its dominance in South Asia.[3]
The Geopolitical Agenda
The United States as well as China seems to have a strategic plan of using Bangladesh in a conflict with India. The US has always considered Bangladesh as a significant element in its strategy for South Asia, whereas China looks for control by taking the help of both economic and military muscles. These shifts of power have a lot to do with the sovereignty and political stability of Bangladesh since both superpowers contender for the authority and control over the policy and allegiance of Dhaka.[4]
The Islamic Question: Regional Implications
The existence of yet another Islamic state in Bangladesh raises very pertinent security issues for India and the stability of the region. A friendly government to Islamist position may heighten instability on the eastern frontiers of India; besides, hearsay may also act as a hub of anti-India activities. The advancement of JeI and its possible cooperation with Pakistan will cause the escalation of militancy and provocations in the region and become a new threat to India. The consequences of such a shift are rather drastic, as it may upset the achieved parity of forces in South Asia and provoke the more adamant reaction of New Delhi.[5]
Conclusion
The protests in Bangladesh are not isolated from the local politics merely but are influenced by the international politics and power play. Each particle of the conflict is not so black and white where Jamaat-e-Islami, Pakistan, the United States and China form a globe where the local stakes are tempered by global strategic interests. Thus, with the continuation of the unrest, such a prospect as a significant political transformation in Bangladesh can be considered high in the context of its regional and extra-regional references.
The benefactors of this instability are likely to be those extra-regional players-Outsider entities such as Pakistan and China benefit from this phenomenon and use this as an opportune time to impose their will into the scenario while the citizens of Bangladesh get the raw end of the stick. This paper eventually arrives at an obvious critical conclusion, Bangladesh’s uncertain future depends on whether multilateral and domestic powers and actors will determine the country’s political future.
(Parag Gilada is pursuing a Master’s in Global Affairs from the OP Jindal Global University. His areas of interest include Sports Diplomacy, Para Diplomacy and Indian Politics.)
References:
- [1] What’s behind Bangladesh’s protest against PM Sheikh Hasina?- https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/why-are-there-protests-bangladesh-again-2024-08-05
- [2] Bangladesh Protests: Are Pakistan’s ISI and China behind protests in Bangladesh to nurture anti-India terror group?- https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/are-pakistan-isi-and-china-behind-bangladesh-protests-to-nurture-anti-india-terror-group/articleshow/112312491.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
- [3] Explainer: What’s Behind Bangladesh’s Deadly Protests?- https://www.asiapacific.ca/publication/explainer-whats-behind-bangladeshs-deadly-protests
- [4] What sparked the protests that toppled Bangladesh’s PM?-https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq5xye1d285o
- [5] Bangladesh on Brink as Anti-Government Protests Become ‘People’s Uprising’- https://time.com/7007756/bangladesh-protests-sheikh-hasina-uprising-analysis
Balaji Subramanian 
Palak Dogra 
Aayush Pal