Trudeau Chooses Domestic Agenda Over Bilateral Ties – Puts Relations with India at Grave Risk

• Diplomatic tensions between India and Canada escalated after PM Trudeau accused India of involvement in Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Nijjar’s assassination, which India denied.
• Canada claims Indian officials conspired with criminal elements to target Khalistanis abroad, but India has withdrawn diplomats, accusing Canada of supporting separatist movements.
• The diplomatic standoff risks affecting trade, immigration, and international relations, with Canada seeking global support while India focuses on defending its narrative and interests.

The diplomatic relationship between India and Canada has reached a critical point, as India recently decided to withdraw its High Commissioner, Sanjay Verma, from Ottawa. The Indian government cited concerns over Canada’s inability to ensure the safety of Indian diplomats in light of growing tensions between the two nations. The move came after Canada suggested that Indian diplomats were under investigation for alleged connections to the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent Khalistani terrorist.

India and Canada had a largely stable bilateral relationship when Justin Trudeau assumed office in 2015. Though Trudeau’s position on India was seen as vague outside the economic agenda, the Liberal Party had campaigned for deeper commercial links. Certain observers observed during his first term that bilateral ties had been placed on “auto-pilot,” with the momentum that had been developed over the preceding ten years starting to flag. A possible change in emphasis was indicated by the slowdown of trade discussions on the Free Trade Agreement.

In an attempt to improve relations, Trudeau paid a high-profile visit to India in 2018, but it soon turned contentious. The visit was tainted by the Canadian High Commission’s invitation to a banquet for Jaspal Atwal, a former terrorist supporting Khalistan who was found guilty of trying to kill an Indian minister in 1986. Even though the invitation was withdrawn, the episode left a lasting impression and prompted concerns about Canada’s position on radical Khalistani extremism.

India-Canada Relations: A Diplomatic Crisis

The India-Canada relationship, once marked by cooperation, has now reached its lowest point due to escalating tensions surrounding the Khalistan movement and the killing of pro-Khalistan terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June 2023 in Canada. The Khalistan movement, advocating for a separate Sikh homeland, has a violent history in India and continues to generate support in Canada. India has repeatedly urged Canada to take stringent action against Khalistani groups operating there, but Canada’s perceived inaction has become a major point of friction in recent years.

In September 2023, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a highly controversial statement, publicly accusing the Indian government of being involved in Nijjar’s assassination. This explosive allegation led to a diplomatic firestorm, with both countries expelling each other’s diplomats and intensifying their rhetoric. India vehemently denied the accusations, calling Trudeau’s claims baseless, while continuing to criticize Canada’s approach to Khalistani extremism.

Canada’s Accusations and India’s Retaliation

The diplomatic crisis deepened when Canada further accused Indian diplomats and intelligence officials of conspiring with gangster Lawrence Bishnoi to target Khalistani figures abroad. Canada also claimed that high-level Indian officials, including Home Minister Amit Shah, were directly involved in authorizing violence against Khalistanis. Canadian officials presented these accusations to India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, though India has maintained that Canada has not provided credible evidence to substantiate these claims.

In response to these allegations, India has withdrawn several of its diplomats from Canada and expelled senior Canadian diplomats from India. New Delhi has accused Ottawa of supporting separatist Khalistani movements and sharply criticized Prime Minister Trudeau for attempting to tarnish India’s global reputation. With both countries locked in a diplomatic standoff, the relationship has deteriorated significantly, casting a shadow over various areas of cooperation, including trade, immigration, and international diplomacy.

Impact on Bilateral Relations

This diplomatic crisis has broader implications for India-Canada relations. The standoff threatens to disrupt trade negotiations, which had been progressing and may affect immigration ties, as Canada is home to a large Indian diaspora. While the two countries have previously enjoyed strong people-to-people ties, this political rupture risks undermining those connections.

Canada has not ruled out further measures, including potential sanctions, while India has reiterated its commitment to defending its national interests. The situation is likely to further strain relations, as Canada has embarked on a diplomatic campaign to gather international support. Prime Minister Trudeau has reached out to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Canada’s Foreign Minister is actively engaging with senior officials from the United States and other Western allies to build support for Canada’s position.

The Geopolitical Stakes

From India’s perspective, the accusations are seen as a significant escalation in an already fraught relationship. India believes that Canada’s failure to curb Khalistani extremism has allowed the movement to grow unchecked, posing security threats to India. Canada, on the other hand, views India’s alleged involvement in Nijjar’s assassination as a violation of its sovereignty.

The stakes are high, not only for bilateral relations but also for the global diplomatic landscape. India, a rising global power with significant influence, will likely work to ensure its narrative prevails on the international stage. Meanwhile, Canada faces pressure to balance its domestic concerns—where freedom of expression allows pro-Khalistan voices to operate—with its international responsibilities.

The relationship between India and Canada has plunged into a deep crisis, with mutual recriminations, diplomatic expulsions, and accusations of interference in each other’s affairs. The once-stable partnership now faces significant uncertainty, with trade, immigration, and diplomatic engagement all at risk. Both countries appear determined to defend their positions, signalling that this standoff could persist for the foreseeable future unless substantial efforts are made to bridge the growing divide.

Both countries will have to tread carefully during this hostile phase, resolving issues that have caused a rift between them. Diplomatic communication must be resumed, with both parties acknowledging the wider consequences of sustained hostility. Diplomacy has frequently entailed striking a balance between domestic and mutual interests, according to the history of ties between India and Canada. Establishing a common ground may need some time, but it will be necessary to prevent ties from deteriorating into an extended period of conflict.

References: 

1. _{Amin, Faysal. “Diaspora Dynamics and Diplomatic Discord: The 2023 Canada-India Rift and its Broader Implications in International Relations.” Journal of Socio-Educational Dynamics-JSED 2, no. 2 (2023): 1-10.}
2. _{Thomas, Vineeth, and G. K. Agney. “Shadows of mistrust: the strained India-Canada relationship.” Canadian Foreign Policy Journal (2024): 1-6.}

Prajwal K M